Tuesday, September 30, 2008


I hate chess. If Grenier can hate speech then I can hate chess. But I imagine any man that hates speech would also hate checkers. I don't hate checkers. In fact, I like it and prefer it over chess. Both stand in as allegorical constructions of war but the difference seems to reside in point of view. Chess suggests a global view of war, imperial struggle from above. It thinks it's smart. People fond of it thinks it's smart. Checkers, on the other hand, takes a view from below. It moves through the motions of a blow by blow account. In chess we can reasonably assume the figure of the king stands in for precisely what it means to be — a king or a president or a prime minister. In checkers the foot soldier that makes his way to the other side of the board is not so much a king or president or prime minister but more like a non-commissioned officer — a lowly sergeant. But once this sergeant's promoted he finds himself behind enemy lines. He must struggle to make his way back. In chess each piece stands in for a larger institution. Even pawns. Pawns stand in for a larger body of cruelly conscripted peasants. Knights for a larger formation of knights on horseback or mechanized cavalry. Bishops for the church. We are to believe queens can be president too, but only in the absence of a king.

In chess pawns are the weakest figure on the board. In New Jersey the Army recruiting office in Paterson has the highest recruitment rate in the state. It is located in one of the poorest cities in the state.

In chess castles move like collapsible military installations. We can position them wherever we need to when negotiating borders. If played properly, this negotiation ends in one side or another occupying the entire board. But never both.

In checkers each piece stands in not for a platoon or a battalion or any other sort of large formation. In checkers each piece stands in for a single solitary being. The question is one of scale. And the question of scale is always a question of power.

Rather than white and black the pieces are red and black, corresponding with some accuracy to the colors of those most likely to be recruited. In checkers it would be absurd to think of a king as a king. He is a pikeman, a foot soldier, a private that can hope for no better than sergeant or death. The account is blow by blow. You take my piece, I take yours. If one of my men make it to the other side they will be promoted. More often than not they die.

Those that prefer chess over checkers probably hate speech. The question is one of scale. And the question of scale is always a question of power. When a pawn takes another pawn in chess this simple move, in the larger scale of the game, is never too costly. Strategists might disagree. Either way, that simple moment, when a pawn takes an opposing pawn — that move encapsulates an entire game of checkers. In chess players strategize. In checkers players send reluctantly enlisted men in to fight and to die. There are many ways of dying.

Unfortunately, there is no collateral damage in either game — chess or checkers. Cities are not bombed. Villages remain intact. Economies don't collapse. Women are conspicuously absent and so the byproduct of conflict within the frame of these games is never rape. The pieces — though they stand in for people or the institutions that manage people — never bleed. This is a problem. But in chess it is much easier to hate speech. In checkers this is not so easy.
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Más historias del Cambio Climático

"Un reportaje sin verdades incómodas"

"España se retrasa en la adaptación al Cambio Climático"

Lo puedes ver y opinar en: http://www.fergco.co/ o pinchando en el logotipo correspondiente de la columna de la derecha.Any source

Más noticias del Tiempo en el Mundo

"El Otoño irrumpe con brusquedad"
Lo puedes ver y opinar en: http://www.fergco.co/
Any source

Sigue subiendo levemente la Reserva Hídrica

El Embalse de la Pedrera, ha sufrido una pequeña subida de 1hm3. Actualmente el agua embalsada es de 72hm3 con un porcentaje de 29,27%. Sería muy bueno que se repitiera el mes de Octubre del pasado año, donde en dicho mes se recogieron en Orihuela más de 100 litros por metro cuadrado.Any source

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Repaso del episodio de precipitaciones

Sinceramente, me esperaba mucha más agua de la que ha caído. Los modelos meteorológicos metian mucha agua para el sureste peninsular pero poco a poco fueron retrasandola hasta que al final desapareció. Pero bueno, hay que ser positivos y pensar que lo que ha caído en este episodio de lluvias ha sido fantastico, que ya hacía falta, y que todavía quedan meses para recoger precipitación antes de entrar en el próximo año. Aquí les dejo con el resumen de este episodio de precipitaciones a finales del mes de Septiembre en Orihuela:

Día 21-------------> 2,1 mm
Día 22-------------> 0,0 mm
Día 23-------------> 0,0 mm
Día 24-------------> 18,3 mm
Día 25-------------> 11,2 mm
Día 26-------------> 0,0 mm
Día 27-------------> 0,3 mm
Día 28-------------> 0,3 mm

Total episodio y mes de Septiembre: 32,2 mm
Total lluvia anual: 203,6 mm
Media de precipitación anual en Orihuela: 291 mm

*mm = litros por metro cuadrado
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BVI FSC Warns Publics about Unauthorised Financial Services Providers

On September 22, 2008, the British Virgin Islands Financial Services Commission has published Advisory Warning No.3 concerning the activities of the company Offshore Health and Travel Benefits. By this Advisory Warning, the BVI FSC had the purpose to warn public against dealing with unauthorised financial services providers.

According to the information announced by the BVI FSC, Offshore Health and Travel Benefits has not received any license or authorisation “to conduct any form of regulated financial services business in or from within the BVI, and as such has not been authorised to conduct insurance business in or from within the BVI.”

Offshore Health and Travel Benefits has solicited insurance business through its website at www. tilloglobe .com, and an advertisement in the British Virgin Islands media. Meanwhile, the BVI FSC informed the public that Offshore Health and Travel Benefits have not been accessed by the Commission to be allowed to carry on insurance or any type of financial services business in or from within the BVI.

Members of the public are also invited to provide the BVI FSC with any information concerning Offshore Health and Travel Benefits and its activities, as well as any other unlicensed entities operating in the similar way in or from within the BVI territory.
Article any source

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Medical spending and positional/context/prestige externalities

With regard to Mark Thoma's post on Uwe E. Reinhardt's recent column:

The general idea that it's good for a wealthy society to spend a large percentage of it's income on smartly run health care and medical research (and it will be far smarter under Obama and the Democrats) is true.

So much more money could be spent on this with very little or no loss of utility in other areas by essentially taxing positional/prestige externalities. This is a gargantuanly important issue for economic well being that's given far too little attention.

Mark, and the readers, I ask that if you haven't read it, please read Cornell economist Robert Frank's book on this, Luxury Fever. If you don't have time for that now, he has a very good summary op-ed from the Washington Post.

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The choice: More banking regulation? or Banking reform?

After years of hands-off regulation by the UK’s Labour government, Alistair Darling current Chancellor of the Exchequer, is now planning for tighter rules covering liquidity, banker's pay and capital requirements (George Parker: Financial Times for 22 Sept).

As yet the mainstream media is reporting only such probable tightening of the rules of the current banking game. But as suggested by James Robertson in the last blog there is an alternative way of banking which is fairer, straightforward and very much simpler. See this Blog for 3 January 2008 and the YouTube links on it. Learn what could happen to transform our money system to the benefit of everyone (except some bankers).

President Jefferson said that the central banking of his time was ‘swindling on a large scale’. President Woodrow Wilson said after signing the Federal Reserve Act that ‘I have unwittingly ruined my country’. Such banking systems are typical internationally to our day.

Read The Free Lunch – Fairness with Freedom for a clear and understandable way ahead. Written in 2002 the book is becoming more relevant with every passing week of this long running crisis.

To order the book: http://www.the-free-lunch.com/Any source

Friday, September 26, 2008

The government would have to pay more than the fair market price for these securities anyway. Warrants just make it less of a bad deal.

With regard to Mark Thoma's September 26th post, "Equity Warrants and Asymmetric Information":

The bigger reason is not asymmetric information; it's that the government would not be paying the market price for these securities anyway. They are worth too little -- in their real, fair market value, not just their fire sale value. It would too likely inject too little capital to prevent a severe liquidity crunch and recession.

It's not like these securities are worth $10, and that's what the government would pay, but when you add warrants that are worth $2, now the government will just have to pay $2 more, and so it gets them nowhere. The government was never going to pay $10 for these securities in the first place. They were going to pay like $15 for securities that were only worth $10 if they didn't want to take a significant risk of disaster. If you add the $2 of warrants it's better because the firms still get the $15 of capital that's necessary, but at least the government would now get $12 of value in return instead of just $10 -- It cuts down on how much the tax payers are giving away to the current managers and shareholders.

The best thing as I've said before would be just that the government buys (takes over) these companies for what they're really worth -- little or nothing -- then they inject the funds, buy the toxic securities, etc., and then sell the companies back to private buyers for a far higher price. This way the tax payers get the whole benefit of the huge cash injection, rather than the existing shareholders and managers.

Mankiw's a well trained and intelligent economist. He knows that Miller-Modigliani explanation was misleading. Why does he deceive for the Republicans? Well, I've listed reasons in the past which I'll reprint here:

There are several reasons why an economist might intentionally mislead for the Republicans:

1) There are relatively few successful university economists who support the Republicans, so there is much less competition for plum and high paying jobs in Republican administrations and propaganda tanks. Becoming a Republican crony can mean a lot of money and/or very high level government jobs, like Mankiw's job as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors in George W. Bush's administration. He's also currently a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Mankiw has a strong incentive to please the Republicans by misleading for them.

2) He may be an extreme Libertarian (more economic than social obviously), and very willing to mislead for that cause, even if he knows it hurts total economic, scientific, and medical growth greatly, and embarrasses him professionally.

3) He may be very Plutocratic, and very willing to mislead for that cause, even if he knows it hurts total economic, scientific, and medical growth greatly, and embarrasses him professionally.

4) He may have Slipperyslopeaphobia -- for details see my blog post.

5) A well intentioned reason -- He may think he can affect change to the historically disgraceful and brain dead Republican party better from the inside than from the outside, and in order to stay inside he can't displease those in control too much.

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Ni una gota...

Doncs finalment, i gairebé de forma incomprensible Tossa no ha recollit ni un sol litre de precipitació aquests darrers dies. Mentre poblacions de Catalunya i de la resta d’Espanya s’inundaven, punts del Principat superen els 100 litres aquest mes de setembre, la nostra vila en prou feines arriba els 25.

Ens trobem davant un mes de Setembre bastant sec (la mitjana és de gairebé 70 litres) i, sobretot, crida l’atenció que el litoral català a patit un situació sinòptica d’est durant molts dies, donant precipitacions entre abundants i molt abundants en gairebé tot el litoral català, excepte el litoral gironí. Sent dubte, Tossa és una de les poblacions de tot Catalunya que menys precipitació a recollit.

Ja a partir de demà dissabte, tot i que a primeres hores estarà bastant ennuvolat, durant els propers dies ha de començar a predominar el temps assolellat i les pluges encara s’aniran més lluny. Els models no indiquen pluges ni a curt ni a mitjà termini.

Haurem de dipositar esperances al mes d’Octubre, el mes més plujós a la nostra vila amb gairebé 100 litres de mitjana (96,9 mm). La Tardor és l’època més plujosa a la conca mediterrània i l’Octubre ens hauria de portar un parell de temporals de pluja més o menys importants. L’última paraula, com sempre, ho tindrà el cel.
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All hell has been breaking loose throughout financial markets for the past few weeks. Or — if we recall the recent failures of Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and others during a summer of soaring oil prices — the last few months. Yesterday Washington Mutual went down, bought out by JPMorgan on the cheap for $1.9 billion. Despite the fallout we can rest assured that new Chief Executive for Washington Mutual Alan Fishman won't feel the pinch in the same way most of us on the ground will:
Mr. Fishman, who has been on the job for less than three weeks, is eligible for $11.6 million in cash severance and will get to keep his $7.5 million signing bonus, according to an analysis by James F. Reda and Associates. WaMu was not immediately available for comment.
What is most frightening is the simple understanding that, had Washington Mutual not been absorbed by JPMorgan, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (F.D.I.C.) — the very institution that insures most street-level savings and checking accounts — would have been "dealt a crushing blow." As of June the F.D.I.C. fund stood at $45.2 billion. Where does it stand now? And how do we understand this figure in relation to the $700 billion bailout working its way through Congress? How is it possible that the billions on billions of dollars Americans have invested in various forms of savings can be insured through an institution which holds so little?

The current financial crisis has roots going back further than the mortgage scandal. Most of us know this. It begins with the relentless systematic move toward greater deregulation and privatization during the Reagan era and moves forward into the present moment. The mortgage crisis doesn't so much mark the beginning of the present financial debacle as it sounds the first salvo of its end. The repeal of Depression-era congressional laws in 1999 under a Republican congress marks a key moment in this narrative. It was the repeal of these laws which allowed commercial banks — the banks most of us maintain checkings and savings accounts in — to muscle in on Wall Street and move into the realm of high-risk investment banking grounded in speculation.

Without giving into the usual feelings of panic, rage and utter powerlessness that tend to reduce the complexity of such crises, Robert Scheer offers perhaps the most sober and clearly-stated analysis of the situation. Some critics of the bailout have mockingly referred to it as a "socialist" approach advanced by the foremost supporters of Friedmanesque deregulation. But Scheer, in conversation with Amy Goodman, identifies the corporatist bailout as a form of fascism — not rhetorically but in the strict sense, as a megalomaniac like Mussolini or ham-fisted theologico economist like C.H. Douglas might see it. An ass like Francis Fukuyama might disagree. In the end, the bailout simply brings to the fore what has always already been the case: the utterly collusive and underhanded relation of the corporate to the political. Of course we can add the cultural to this. With few exceptions, (mainstream) culture has always been the handmaiden of corporate and political interests.

Where does this situate poetry — or any form of cultural production? How, in the present moment, do poets, artists, and intellectuals think through the present crisis strategically, without falling into practices that would reduce the force of art to a bumper sticker, an apocalyptic sign, a hastily constructed editorial? How might thinking through our relation to language — to culture — assist us in moving through the catastrophe?

Tonight the University at Buffalo's North Campus is hosting Karl Rove, former Deputy Chief of Staff to the Bush administration and one of the chief architects of the war in Iraq. Despite state-level budget cuts that have dealt a blow to universities and university libraries throughout New York state, the University at Buffalo managed to locate a $50,000 honorarium for Rove. Students, faculty and others have arranged a protest. Poets Stacy Szymaszek and Erica Kaufman are scheduled to read at the same time the protest is due to take place, their visit sponsored through the UB Poetics Program. The conflict between the reading and the protest has — by way of forcing students, faculty and others to decide between the two events — generated a good deal of productive conversation around our relation to the aesthetic and, more broadly, the relation of the aesthetic to the political.

Thinking through the present financial crisis within the frame of the conversation generated around Rove's disruptive and inappropriate visit to Buffalo, I find myself sitting on top of a stack of recently published books that deserve close reading: Sean Bonney's Baudelaire in English, Kent Johnson's Homage to the Last Avant-Garde, Andrew Schelling's Old Tale Road, Shelly Taylor's Peaches the Yes-Girl, Julie Patton's Notes for Some (Nominally) Awake, David Brazil's The Book Called Spring, Aaron Lowinger's Open Night, Dan Beachy-Quick and Srikanth Reddy's Mobius Crowns, Mary Burger's A Partial Handbook for Navigators, Alice Notley's Above the Leaders, Estaphin's DCLP, and any number of others. They sit here on the floor in stacks. I pick them up every once in a while. I skim through one or another when I make my way onto the porch every hour or so for a cigarette.

The front cover of Julie Patton's Notes (Portable Press at YoYo Labs, 2007) features an image of Old Glory upside down, fireworks and Arabic text. The back cover boasts an image of Smoky the Bear — a visual gesture pointing toward fire and the need to control or extinguish fires. Short of scanning and pasting images from the text, the work is impossible to describe with any accuracy. Patton plays throughout the book with the name "Amiri Baraka" — dismantling the name and disjunctively positioning phonological and morphological fragments of it so bits of the name — disparate parts of the whole — might be read through, even constituted within, a wide range of culturo-political discourses. For example, in the name "Baraka" the text suggests we might find a "bear" and this "bear" is also a "bearer": "bad-news bearer zoo logical curse a mine ore rock rig eerie trial of...." On the following page we find an Associated Press article dated May 11, 2006. The last sentence of the article reads: "It was shot by state biologists and was the first bear to be killed as part of the state's no-tolerance policy on bears in densely populated areas."

My wife points me toward a recently published article discussing GOP plans to disenfranchise voters in Michigan that recently lost their homes as a result of the mortgage crisis:

The chairman of the Republican Party in Macomb County, Michigan, a key swing county in a key swing state, is planning to use a list of foreclosed homes to block people from voting in the upcoming election as part of the state GOP’s effort to challenge some voters on Election Day.

“We will have a list of foreclosed homes and will make sure people aren’t voting from those addresses,” party chairman James Carabelli told Michigan Messenger in a telephone interview earlier this week. He said the local party wanted to make sure that proper electoral procedures were followed.

State election rules allow parties to assign “election challengers” to polls to monitor the election. In addition to observing the poll workers, these volunteers can challenge the eligibility of any voter provided they “have a good reason to believe” that the person is not eligible to vote. One allowable reason is that the person is not a “true resident of the city or township.”

The Michigan Republicans’ planned use of foreclosure lists is apparently an attempt to challenge ineligible voters as not being “true residents.”

As any of us might assume, the vast majority of these presently homeless and potentially disenfranchised voters are black:
The Macomb County party’s plans to challenge voters who have defaulted on their house payments is likely to disproportionately affect African-Americans who are overwhelmingly Democratic voters. More than 60 percent of all sub-prime loans — the most likely kind of loan to go into default — were made to African-Americans in Michigan, according to a report issued last year by the state’s Department of Labor and Economic Growth.
The continuity linking name to race to the broader no-tolerance policies that effectively determine who will lose their votes with their homes and who will not runs throughout Patton's Notes, culminating in the last pages of book: "AMIRICAUSE / AMERIKKA" and finally "BARAKAFRICA / N / AMERICAUCASIA / 'Shadows ... music about to enter'." Reading this in the context of the present moment, the final phrase seems a call for resistance. Given the subject position of the reader, this phrase may also be taken as both a prophetic statement and a warning. At present the music Patton remarks is unidentifiable, beyond location. This music is about to enter. And here I wonder precisely what music will enter in the culturo-economic vacuum left in the wake of this financial disaster. And I wonder what the possibilities of this music are and what potentialities it has the force to actualize.
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Wait a minute

The Scottish farm minister Richard Lochead has firmly ruled out a demand from NFU Scotland for the early payment of £61m of less favoured area support. He pointed out that early payment would jeopardise the Single Farm Payment as EU rules state that SFP must be paid ahead of LFA support.

The Scottish NFU argued that early payment would provide some respite to farmers escalating feed, fertiliser and fuel payment. Many families are constrained by rising food, energy and petrol prices. Perhaps on the same logic child benefit should be paid out early?

In an editorial Farmers' Weekly calls for a 'coherent, joined-up plan ... from DEFRA, which encourages a scaling-up of UK food production'. It doesn't get much to get the farming community to fall back on a call for Stalinist five-year plans. Machine Tractor Stations anyone?

Those in farming tend to see the world rather differently from the rest of us. To be fair, there are progressive farmers who see the need to engage in a dialogue with consumers and respond to market opportunities. But all too often they are not the public voice of the industry.Any source

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Pluges de Tardor.

L’entrada d’una massa freda, amb altes humitats en diferents nivells de la troposfera i una lleugera entrada de vents humits en superfície, originarà l’aparició de precipitacions en molts sectors del nord-est on fins ara la pluja no ha fet acte de presència aquests darrers dies de temporal en molts sectors del llevant espanyol. A més, les temperatures baixarien lleugerament i la neu apareixerà per sobre dels 2000 metres..
Per avui divendres, s’espera un dia variable amb creixement de nuvolades que donarien ruixats i alguna tempesta forta en punts del nord-est desplaçant-se cap al nord de Barcelona i la Costa Brava. Localment podrien acumular quantitats moderades i ser d’una certa intensitat. Per la zona de Lleida el dia estarà poc ennuvolat.
A partir de mitja tarda i durant la nit de divendres a dissabte, es podrien reactivar pel nord-est les precipitacions i es desplaçarien cap al sud del principat on serien més persistents. És probable que les precipitacions de matinada siguin intenses en alguns punts i amb fort aparell elèctric just quan l’aire fred s’escoli pel nord-est. S’haurà d’anar seguint molt de prop.
De cara a dissabte, les precipitacions es centrarien en tota la meitat sud, que podrien acumular quantitats abundants

Model HIRLAM. Temperatura a 5500 metres d'alçada (500hPa) per a la matinada de dissabte (6 hores), on s'aprecia l'entrada d'aire fred (-20ºC) pel nord-est Peninsular

Model HIRLAM. Humitat esperada a 700 hPa (3000 metres d'alçada).

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NFL DRAFT Remains in NYC for at least 2009-but no movement on NFL network coming to CableTV

NFL DRAFT Remains in NYC for at least 2009-but no movement on NFL network coming to CableTV

If you look at the NFL.com Website you can clearly see that The dates for the Draft are posted (April 25th and 26th 2009) and Listed as "Radio City Music Hall" in NYC
In the past i had said i felt it should be moved around some. But after talking with Fans the last two drafts i have done an about face. Maybe the NFL should sign a long term agreement with Radio City (oh, but that would mean they'd be going back on their word and Jumping back into bed with Radio City's owner "the Evil(yeah right) James Dolan of Cablevision). The clear fact is that the NFL Owners are the ones keeping the fans from having the NFL Network (and even the Sunday ticket) on Cable, and not James and Charles Dolan. Ask NFL Brodcast comm. chair Jerry Jones(the same one who owns the Cowboys) why they are trying to get Cablevision into court to force them to carry the channel on Basic cable? Because not all that many people are running out to get Directv or dish network (or even Fios) so fast...So i'm Glad the Draft will stay in NYC for at least one more year, and on Cable TV Via ESPN G_d Bless Chris Berman's Voice...

AFC South Wk. 3 Wrap.

Titans 31 Texans 12
By Rafael Garcia AFC South Insider

At the start of the season what was clear was that the Colts would be in first place. Then it should have been Jacksonville second. Well the power structure has changed a bit. After the Titans put a whipping on Houston it was they who were in first. With a 3-0 record they have a two game lead over the Colts and Jags (both 0-2). The defense has given up only 29 points total do far. Jags back Albert Haynesworth and Courtland Finnegan may be the best at their position in the league. Haynesworth had a sack and was a monster all day. Finnegan got his fourth pick of the year and ran it back 99 yards for a touchdown. Micheal Griffin had two interceptions of his own and the Titans defense held Houston scoreless in the second half. Kerry was solid going 14-26 for 189 yards and touchdown pass to Bo Scaife. The running game produced 154 yards and that was enough for the win. In the stands the crowd pounded on the seats. They stomped their feet and screamed like it was 1999 again. This team still has way to go before they start talking division title but with the Vince Young situation its not a bad start. In the other divisional game the Colts took it on the chin in a 23-21 loss to the Jags. Josh Scobee nailed a 51 yard field goal with four seconds left for the win. That came after Peyton Manning drove the Colts 77 yards for the apparent game winning score. Though looking better he threw an interception that was returned 61 yards for a touchdown. Penalties at crucial times hurt too. As for the Jags, they had 236 yards rushing but found the end zone just once offensively. They needed three Scobee field goals to get this win. These two teams along with Texans better get their act together quick. Any more slip-ups could be costly if the Titans get better as expected.

Seguimos acumulando precipitación

Así ha sido, la previsión se ha cumplido a la perfección. El viento de Levante ha soplado durante toda la mañana con rachas moderadas, lo que ha hecho que tengamos un aporte de humedad magistral y nubes bajas para recibir precipitaciones persistentes. Lo importante es que seguimos acumulando litros en la ciudad, que buena falta hacían. Veamos las cantidades de precipitación que se han recogido hoy en diversos observatorios meteorológicos del sureste peninsular:

Cehegín (Murcia): 50,0 mm
Caravaca de la Cruz (Murcia): 40,2 mm
Jumilla (Murcia): 22,4 mm
Santomera (Murcia): 12,5 mm
Orihuela (Alicante): 11,2 mm
Llano de Brujas (Murcia): 11,2 mm
Molina de Segura (Murcia): 10,9 mm
Murcia (Murcia): 8,9 mm
Cartagena (Murcia): 8,2 mm
Novelda (Alicante): 7,2 mm
Aeropuerto El Altet (Alicante): 6,0 mm
Elda (Alicante): 4,3 mm
San Vicente del Raspeig (Alicante): 1,8 mm
Alicante (Alicante): 1,5 mm
Torrevieja (Alicante): 1,2 mm

*mm = litros por metro cuadradoAny source

Un verano algo cálido

23/09/2008 El verano pasado ha sido, en el conjunto del país, algo más cálido de lo normal con una anomalía media del orden de +0,5º C, mientras que las precipitaciones han estado en torno a los valores normales.

El mes de junio fue relativamente fresco en su primera mitad, subiendo apreciablemente las temperaturas en la última decena, de modo que en conjunto los valores térmicos se mantuvieron en torno a sus valores medios en todas las regiones, salvo en las incluidas en los extremos sur y norte peninsulares donde junio resultó más cálido de lo normal; en conjunto la anomalía media del mes fue de +0,6º C (en relación con el período de referencia 1971-2000). Julio resultó mas fresco de lo normal en las regiones del noroeste peninsular, cálido en las del tercio sur y la mayor parte de las regiones mediterráneas y con pequeñas diferencias en torno a lo normal en el resto, siendo la anomalía media de las temperaturas en el conjunto de España de +0,2 º C. Agosto mantuvo unas características térmicas bastante similares a las del mes anterior, resultando relativamente fresco en algunas zonas del noroeste peninsular, cálido a muy cálido en las regiones mediterráneas, tercio sur y áreas del centro peninsular y en torno a lo normal en las restantes zonas, con una anomalía media de +0,6º C.

En resumen el verano ha sido, en el conjunto del país, algo más cálido de lo normal con una anomalía media del orden de +0,5º C, resultando relativamente fresco en el noroeste y cálido en el resto, especialmente en las regiones mediterráneas y del tercio sur peninsular. Las temperaturas más elevadas se registraron en los días centrales de la segunda quincena de Julio, cuando se alcanzaron valores en torno a los 40º C en puntos de Andalucía y Castilla la Mancha, así como en los primeros días de Agosto, registrándose las temperaturas máximas mas elevadas del verano el día 4 de Agosto, con valores ligeramente por encima de los 40º C en puntos de Andalucía, Extremadura y Castilla la Mancha, con un valor máximo absoluto de 41,7 º C en Córdoba el citado día.

El verano se inició con un mes de junio que resultó húmedo en las regiones del norte y este peninsular, seco en el suroeste y tuvo unas precipitaciones en torno a lo normal en el resto de las regiones, de forma que la precipitación media en España fue de 39 mm., muy ligeramente superior a su valor medio en dicho mes que es de 36 mm. Los meses de Julio y Agosto fueron en cambio bastante secos en la mayor parte de las regiones, de modo que en el conjunto de estos 2 meses las precipitaciones medias sobre España (26 mm.) sólo alcanzaron la mitad del valor normal del período, con extensas áreas sobre el centro y mitad sur peninsular en las que las precipitaciones no alcanzaron los 5 mm. en este período.
En el conjunto del verano, y según se aprecia en la figura las precipitaciones sólo superaron sus valores medios en el área de levante y en el sureste de Castilla la Mancha, así como en algunas zonas aisladas del valle del Ebro, resultando el trimestre especialmente seco en Canarias y en el cuadrante suroeste peninsular, con precipitaciones por debajo del 50% de los valores normales.
Fuente: AEMET
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Agosto, cálido a muy cálido ( Excepto Noroeste )

El mes de agosto ha tenido carácter cálido para el conjunto del área peninsular, predominando los valores relativos de muy cálido en la mitad suroriental. En cuanto a la precipitación, ha tenido carácter seco, con una clara diferencia entre el noroeste y norte peninsular y la práctica totalidad del resto.

En Baleares fue un mes térmicamente normal y en Canarias el valor medio fue de carácter muy cálido. El carácter normal se extendió a Extremadura, gran parte de Castilla y León, zonas del Alto Ebro y puntos del Cantábrico Central y Oriental. También Gerona tuvo temperaturas medias normales. En las Rías Bajas, desde Santiago de Compostela hacia el sur y el oeste, tuvo carácter frío que llegó a ser muy frío en las tres rías más meridionales, con anomalías inferiores a –1.2 ºC.

Puntualmente en Málaga Aeropuerto se registraron valores medios superiores en dos décimas a la máxima anterior de agosto de 2001, estableciendo nueva efeméride de temperatura media con 27.5 ºC. Las mayores desviaciones positivas sobre la media normal se registraron en Málaga (+2.1 ºC) e Izaña (2.0 ºC), habiendo otros observatorios de Castilla-La Mancha, donde se superaron los 1.5 ºC. En Izaña (Tenerife) la media de las mínimas diarias estableció nueva efeméride con 15.9ºC, dos décimas superior a la de 1988.

Las temperaturas máximas se registraron en el interior peninsular en los primeros días del mes, con mayor frecuencia de la absoluta el día 4. En el norte y noroeste peninsular ocurrieron entre los días 28 y 30, mientras que en Levante y otros puntos del litoral mediterráneo se registraron en el entorno del día 12.

Las temperaturas mínimas más bajas se registraron en las proximidades del día 15 para gran parte del interior peninsular y en Baleares. En el resto de observatorios tuvieron fechas más variables con predominio en la tercera decena.

El mes de agosto ha tenido carácter seco para el conjunto peninsular, con una clara diferenciación entre el noroeste y norte peninsular y la práctica totalidad del resto.
Las lluvias en gran parte de Galicia y en toda la cornisa cantábrica dieron carácter húmedo, con pequeñas áreas de muy húmedo en la costa oeste. A destacar los 129.6 l/m 2 medidos en Pontevedra, que quedaron lejos de los 159.1 registrados en el mismo mes de 1992; los 117.7 l/m 2 de Fuenterrabía quedan aún más lejos de los 344 de 1963.

Otras pequeñas áreas del norte de Navarra (38.5 l/m 2) y en Zamora también alcanzaron el carácter húmedo. En la vertiente mediterránea y al sur del Sistema Central las precipitaciones fueron escasas dando al conjunto carácter de muy seco. Pequeñas excepciones en Levante y Cuenca con totales inferiores a 11 l/m 2, alcanzaron el carácter normal. Pero en la mayoría de los observatorios de esta gran área predominaron las precipitaciones totales nulas.
En Canarias dominaron los totales nulos o de cantidad inapreciable, excepto en alturas medias donde se registraron hasta 7 l/m 2. El carácter normal de las islas y del sur de Andalucía va acompañado de una frecuencia alta de precipitaciones nulas para este mes.Any source

Previsión Otoño 08. Lluvias y Temperaturas

Como en todos los cambios de estación durante el año, en MeteoCehegín realizo una pequeña previsión sobre como pueden ser, tanto térmica como pluviométricamente, estos próximos tres meses. Aunque el otoño meteorológico ya comenzó el pasado 1 de Septiembre, el astronómico no lo hará hasta el próximo lunes 22 de Septiembre a las 17:44 horas. El otoño como saben es la estación mas húmeda del año en nuestro territorio y por tanto la que mas lluvias comporta, al menos de forma habitual. Consultando los mapas ofrecidos por la Oficina Meteorológica Británica (Met Office) podemos ver como este próximo otoño puede tener una temperatura bastante cercana a la media, con ligeras desviaciones positivas.

En el apartado de las lluvias tampoco se observan anomalías de interés. Según Met Office parece que las precipitaciones van a estar también cerca de la media en nuestra zona, con ligeras reducciones en la norte peninsular y algunos puntos del occidente español.

Aunque si bien hay que señalar, desde hace algunos días se vienen observando patrones atmosféricos bastante interesantes de cara a tener posibles aguaceros torrenciales durante este próximo mes de Octubre. El Anticiclón ruso – escandinavo está ganando mucha fuerza e incluso parece que puede desplazarse ligeramente hacia el sur, colocando su eje central mas o menos sobre la latitud de las Islas Británicas.
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漫畫名:一休和尚( あっかんべェ一休)
集 數:四集完
譯 者:林靜誼、鳥山亂







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譯 者:陳蕙莉


第一部短篇【Calling You】描寫女高中生小涼幻想中的手機被撥通了,而女孩試著在腦海裡效法進也隨意撥號,三方的不間斷通話讓感情逐漸滋長茁壯……。這一則短篇有稍微動搖到回頭挖書的決心,兩小無猜的純愛感覺固然很好,結局也淒美動人,又、白乙一或許真不是蓋的,但故事中的第三主角原田小姐為何沒有對女孩事先提出警告,老實說,我很不能明白其中的道理,甚至感到很悶,只能不斷揣測乙一何以如此收場,是無意或者認為生命就該如此?過去的就過去了,逝水年華只待追憶即可?







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Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Lluvias persistentes en Orihuela para las próximas horas

Las condiciones meteorológicas seguirán empeorando hoy en Orihuela y en general en el sureste peninsular. El viento de Levante comenzará a soplar sobre nuestra zona partir de las próximas horas, empujando masas nubosas desde el Mediterráneo, que irán descargando toda su agua sobre esta zona tan necesitada de buenas precipitaciones. Mientras que este viento siga soplando, y esto unido al aire frío que tenemos en las capas altas de la atmósfera, las lluvias no cesaran en todo nuestro término municipal. Por tanto, se espera que las precipitaciones sean persistentes durante toda la mañana. Eso si, sería una lluvia de intensidad a lo sumo moderada, que en principio no alcanzará las intensidades de la tormenta de ayer.Mapa de superficie previsto para las 06Z del 25/09/08. Isobaras en superficie (líneas negras), cobertura nubosa en % (áreas grises), precipitación acumulada en 6 horas (áreas en tonos verdes y azules), viento en superficie (flechas naranjas).

Con estas condiciones meteorológicas, desde esta tarde y hasta el próximo fin de semana, pueden acumularse cantidades de lluvia, totales en el episodio, de unos 30-35 mm.
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Una tormenta, con Arcus incluido, deja 18,3 l/m2 en Orihuela

Hoy nos ha tocado a nosotros, una tormenta formada en el limite provincial de la Comunidad Valenciana y Murcia, ha afectado a Orihuela esta tarde dejando 18,3 mm. La tormenta llevaba consigo una de las estructuras nubosas que personalmente más me gustan. Se trata de un Arcus.

Voy a explicarles de que se trata este fenómeno meteorológico:
Se trata de un Cumulonimbus cuya base muestra una forma de arco muy característica. Esta nube es capaz de originar fenómenos severos (intensos chubascos acompañados de granizo y fuertes vendavales).

Pues esta nube ha aparecido hoy al Norte de la ciudad, pegada a la sierra oriolana. Así era el Arcus que ha aparecido esta tarde en Orihuela:

Veáse el Arcus sobre la Sierra de Orihuela, la estructura nubosa era excepcional y en ese momento ya estaba dejando algunas gotas sobre mi posición y se escuchaban truenos.

-La temperatura ha bajado más de 3ºC durante la tormenta.
-La humedad relativa ha subido un 19% durante la tormenta.
-La racha máxima de viento ha sido de 29,8 Km/h.
-La tormenta ha llegado a dejar lluvia de intensidad torrencial durante apenas un par de minutos, el resto de tiempo ha descargado de forma moderada con apretones de intensidad fuerte.
-El fenómeno tormentoso ha registrado aparato eléctrico normal y cada cierto tiempo, es decir, los truenos no eran continuos.
-La tormenta ha afectado a afectado a otros puntos del término municipal de Orihuela, como por ejemplo la pedanía de La Murada.

*mm = litros por metro cuadrado
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Un Progetto per cambiare il mondo.

Se avessi la possibilità di proporre un'idea in grado di aiutare il maggior numero di persone, quale sarebbe?

È una domanda che vale la pena porsi. Mai come oggi tante persone hanno avuto a disposizione una quantità così elevata di informazioni, strumenti e metodi per realizzare buone idee. Eppure, alllo stesso tempo, tante persone di qualsiasi condizione sociale potrebbero beneficiare dell'aiuto altrui, grande o piccolo che sia.

A questo proposito, nuovi studi ribadiscono il semplice concetto che raggiunto un certo livello di benessere materiale di base, l'unica cosa che aumenta la felicità individuale è... l'opportunità di aiutare gli altri.

In altre parole, aiutare va a vantaggio di tutti, sia di chi aiuta, sia di chi viene aiutato. La domanda è: in che modo si può aiutare? E cosa aiuta di più?

Google non ha queste risposte, ma sa che sono da qualche parte, alla tua portata. Forse in un laboratorio, una società o università, o forse no.

Forse la risposta che può aiutare qualcuno è nella tua testa, in qualcosa che hai osservato, in qualche nozione che ha stuzzicato il tuo interesse, in qualche collegamento che hai notato, in qualcosa di vecchio che per la prima volta hai visto con altri occhi.

In occasione del nostro decimo compleanno e per celebrare lo spirito dei nostri utenti e del Web, abbiamo deciso di lanciare il Progetto 10^100, un concorso per realizzare le migliori idee con l'obiettivo di cambiare il mondo aiutando il maggior numero di persone.

La CNN seguirà il progetto da vicino dedicando servizi alle idee e alle persone che le invieranno da tutto il mondo. Per maggiori dettagli, vai al sito Impact Your World.

Il termine ultimo per l'invio delle idee è il 20 ottobre 2008. Invia le tue idee qui e torna a farci visita il 27 gennaio per votare i progetti degli altri.

Ci auguriamo di averti dato la giusta ispirazione per provarci.

Buona fortuna, e che vincano le idee migliori.

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Google Chrome su YouTube...

Ciao a tutti. Alcuni di voi avranno già sicuramente installato e provato il nostro nuovo browser, Google Chrome. Per chi non l'avesse ancora fatto, basta scaricarlo qui. Volevamo cogliere l'occasione per ricordare ai più neofiti, o a chi non avesse ancora una gran conoscenza del mondo dei browser, alcune delle caratteristiche principali di Google Chrome, attraverso alcuni semplici video presenti nel nostro canale ufficiale di YouTube.

Questi video vi spiegano in maniera molto semplice alcune delle particolarità che caratterizzano questo nuovo prodotto, ad esempio le
schede dinamiche o la modalità in incognito.

Per visitare il canale potete anche semplicemente fare clic sul link che trovate nella parte in alto a destra del nostro blog.

Buona navigazione a tutti! :)

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Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Más noticias del Tiempo en el Mundo

"Inundaciones en Sueca (Valencia)"
Lo puedes ver y opinar en: http://www.fergco.co/
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BVI FSC Issues New Guidance Notes on the Mutual Funds Act, 1996

On September 16, 2008, the BVI Financial Services Commission published 'The Mutual Funds Act, 1996 Guidance Notes On Mutual Fund Annual Returns'. The Guidance Notes issued with respect to the Mutual Funds Act, 1996, include “the Mutual Fund Annual Returns” Form, which may be completed by any director, officer or otherwise authorised representative of the reporting fund. The return must be submitted within the six months after the end of the reporting period to BVI FSC.

Currently issued Guidance Notes consist of two parts. The first part named “Notes on Authorisation” includes information on how to fill in the name of reporting fund, the Certificate number, the reporting period, how to select the characteristics of the entity, how to indicate the names and addresses of approved functionaries. The second part of the document named “Notes on Fund Information” includes other important matters concerning General Asset Allocation, Asset Allocation by Jurisdiction, Investment Information, and Summary Expenses including management expenses, performance expenses, administration and professional expenses.

BVI is one of the most popular offshore mutual funds jurisdiction. There are more than 2.5 thousand active mutual and hedge funds in the BVI.
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Supercélula en las inmediaciones de Orihuela

Esta tarde se ha vivido una de las tormentas más bestiales de los últimos años en el sureste peninsular. A sido a 33 kilómetros de Orihuela, en Elche, donde han caído 140 litros por metro cuadrado en apenas media hora... imagínense la intensidad de precipitación. Todo ha empezado cuando una tormenta se ha formado al Sur de las localidades alicantinas de Elda y Petrer, el desarrollo de dicha tormenta ha sido brutal, con muchísima rapidez. En apenas 20 minutos la tormenta ha seguido dirección Sur y se ha plantado en Crevillente y Elche, donde se ha convertido en Supercélula Severa. Antes de seguir con el relato, voy a explicar que es una supercélula severa:

Una Supercélula Severa es una tormenta convectiva que posee un profundo y persistente mesociclón. ¿Y qué es un mesociclón? Un Mesociclón es una intensa corriente de aire ("airdraft") que llevan consigo las supercélulas, en continua rotación que se halla localizada en, fundamentalmente, niveles medios y tiene un diámetro medio de 5 a 8 Km. Este hecho les hace mantener un ciclo de vida inusualmente largo comparado con otras tormentas no supercelulares.

Vamos a ver la secuencia del radar y el satélite:

Veáse la captura del Radar de Murcia. La tormenta se formó al Sur de Elda y Petrer.

Veáse la captura del Radar de Murcia. La tormenta se convierte en Supercélula Severa con reflectividades cercanas a los 66 Db. Veáse también el "gancho" que marca el radar al Oeste de dicho fenómeno.

Veáse la captura del Radar de Murcia. La Supercélula Severa da sus últimos coletazos en Elche y Crevillente tras tocar el núcleo importante o "gancho" el Mar Mediterráneo.

Veáse la imagen del Satélite. El círculo verde indica el núcleo más fuerte de la tormenta tocando el Mar Mediterráneo tras pasar por encima de Elche, y el círculo rojo indica la extensión total de la Supercélula Severa.

Dicho fenómeno meteorológico, evidentemente, ha protagonizado mucho miedo en la ciudad ilicitana, así como innumerables destrozos en el mobiliario urbano, garages inundados, campos anegados, carreteras cortadas, coches para el desguace, una importante crecida del río Vinalopó a su paso por la ciudad...etc. Lo mejor es que os enseñe algunas fotografías y un video que resume lo que ha dado de sí este fenómeno que nunca olvidaran en Elche:

Veáse el acceso a Elche por un tramo de la N-340 que une Elche y Crevillente.

Veáse las ramblas desbordadas.

Veáse que algunos árboles han sido arrancados de cuajo por las fuertes rachas de viento que llevaba consigo el fenómeno.

Veáse el desplome de la estructura de una gasolinera.

Veáse el nivel de agua que había por la ciudad cuando la tormenta ya se marchaba.

Veáse los centros escolares totalmente inundados.

Veáse el gran caudal que llevaba el río Vinalopó a su paso por Elche.

Veáse un garage de la ciudad ilicitana. Cientos de coches han quedado muy dañados.

Lluvia torrencial + Viento con rachas propias de un huracán + Granizo = Supercélula Severa en Elche

*La cantidad de precipitación recogida ha sido de 140 litros por metro cuadrado, pero hay que tener en cuenta que han podido ser muchos más litros, debido a que el pluviómetro no habrá recogido exactamente la precipitación por culpa de las rachas de viento y el granizo. No hay datos de viento, debido a que la estación meteorológica de Elche se ha estropeado cuando la tormenta ha afectado a la ciudad.

Aquí os dejo un video de los tantisimos que han sido grabados por diversas personas:

Por último tengo que decir, que en Orihuela hemos tenido mucha fortuna al no afectarnos esta tormenta, los destrozos en la ciudad podrian haber sido incluso mayores a los de Elche. Esta Supercélula ilicitana quedará para la historia.Any source

"government takeovers may be the only way to get the financial system working again"

With regard to Mark Thoma's September 23rd post, "Hold to Maturity versus Fire Sale Prices":

Mark writes, "If we reduce the future profitability of these firms at all (by that I mean the amount available to private investors), say by demanding a share of future profits for the government, that will make it harder for the firms to raise private capital since expected future profits will be lower. So, by having the government take a share of any upside, the result may be less willingness of the private sector to participate in recapitalization."

There's a relatively easy solution to this. The government just buys (takes over) the firms (Princeton economist Paul Krugman writes, "government takeovers may be the only way to get the financial system working again"). Then credit will flow because the government does not have a problem comming up with money to loan out. When the bad assets are removed from the books and the firms are in order, then the government sells them back to the private market. This has been done successfully many times, and it allows the taxpayers to reap the benefits of the massive government cash infusion, rather than the firms existing shareholders and managers.

Why not just do this appearantly better and more efficient solution? The same reason we don't do so many clearly better and more efficient solutions, simple-minded Republican ideology that's highly resistant and often downright hostile to logic and evidence (see Columbia Economist Jeffery Sach's recent article, "Anti-Intellectualism", Princeton Economist Paul Krugman's, "Know Nothing Politics" -- "Republicans, once hailed as the “party of ideas,” have become the party of stupid." -- and New York Times Columnist Thomas Friedman's, "Making America Stupid"). Republican ideology says government ownership of almost anything is bad. This has lead to massive inefficiency and complication in things from health care to student loans to the spiders web of extremely hard to monitor and control contractors and mercenaries in the military.

It takes a great deal of political pressure/danger to get the Republicans to deviate from their ideology. We'll soon see if there's enough here to get a good plan.

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