Saturday, July 31, 2010

Samedi 14 Aout 2010 orages

Risque orageux pour ce Samedi 14 Aout 2010 ?

Matin :
Beaucoup de chamboulements pour cette journée : en effet, les hautes pressions resteraient sur l'Europe centrale dirigeant un courant de Sud-Ouest à Sud sur la France.
La journée commencerait avec quelques orages localisés dans une masse d'air déjà bien chaude.
Cependant, ces orages se cantonneraient aux reliefs normalement.

Les températures minimales oscilleraient entre 10°C à Aurillac et 22°C à Nice en passant par 13°C à Sarrebourg (Moselle), 16°C à Paris et 18°C à Toulouse.

Après midi :
La chaleur se faisant plus pressante, l'instabilité pourrait être remarquable.
Dans ces conditions, il faudrait s'attendre à des orages probablement violents sur toute la France, pourtour méditerranéen compris !
Il resterait à savoir quels endroits l'activité électrique et les précipitations se feraient le plus remarquer : nous le saurions que quelques heures avant !

Les températures maximales seraient globalement chaudes pour la saison (sauf sur le Nord-Ouest) : elles partiraient de 22°C à Ouessant (Ouest Bretagne) pour aller à 27°C à Nantes, 29°C à Orléans et 31°C à Strasbourg.
Au Sud, entre 25°C à Saint Jean de Luz et 34°C à Grenoble en passant par 28°C à Ajaccio et 31°C à Agen.
Any source


趁著天氣好, 幾個高中同學攜家帶眷, 相約到去騎腳踏車吃海鮮, 下了八堵交流道, 轉上62快速道路, 沿著濱海, 40分鐘便到了福隆.

因為出門太晚, 沒跟到便當團...
從福隆車站沿著鐵道走, 就是前往今天腳踏車要騎的"舊草嶺隧道"了
以前在舊草嶺隧道走的火車頭, 現在已經是大家合影的主角
" 騎鐵馬"
舊草嶺隧道, 民國13年就建好了, 2.167公里長的隧道,民國97年轉化成自行車道...

隧道北口"制天險" (從福隆方向的入口)
隧道裡, 涼涼的, 濕氣挺重的, 雖然地上一點點滑滑的, 悠閒的騎, 蠻舒服的, 照明不是太亮, 有火車過山洞的感覺
隧道裡的指示牌 -
隧道中的熱門攝影點 -

一邊是台北縣, 一邊是宜蘭縣
騎著騎著, 終於看到了光明的那頭,
地上的鐵軌已經都不復見, 但是還是很用心的把它轉換成在地上的圖騰
隧道南口門額 - "國雲飛處"
大朋友小朋友趕緊把腳踏車停好, 急著去買石花凍, 飲料, 冰淇淋...
"舊草嶺隧"道現在是自行車通行, 平行的"草嶺隧道"則是現在的北迴鐵路
龜山島就在眼前 -
騎著騎著雖然沒有累, 但還是不能忘了要好好吃一頓,
從福隆往回開, 10分鐘左右, 到了澳底, 循著廣告路標, 來到了"新港海鮮"

右轉左轉的巷弄間, 到處都可以停車, 座無虛席的海鮮餐廳
第一輪上菜, 蚵捲, 炒麵, 蔭豉蚵, 燙鮮蝦
燙鮮蝦 - 不賴, 新鮮原味, 就是一等美味
炒海瓜子 -
炸透抽 -
炒高麗菜 -
蒸鮮魚 - 又一道新鮮就是美味
買魚送湯 - 新鮮美味加一, 大家都說好喝
大支空心菜, 葉子吃起來像地瓜葉??
六個人一桌, NT. 2920
HomeAny source

Friday, July 30, 2010

WinDbg/KD: Debugging a Processor Cache Issue (0x124 WHEA_UNCORRECTABLE_ERROR)

The Debugging Tools for Windows are required to analyze crash dump files. If you do not have the Debugging Tools for Windows installed or dump files are not being generated on system crash, see this post for installation/configuration instructions:

I recently helped a user out with a stop error involving the processor cache and I realized that there are not a lot of posts that detail the information that is included in this kind of small memory dump. Professionals who work intimately with kernel level structures and the physical processor and chipset know that there are typically two or three caches (referred to as L1, L2, and L3 caches) as well as the TLB (table lookaside buffer) cache.

When there is a failure in one of these caches, there will likely be a stop error (sometimes called a bugcheck error, after the function that generates the dump and safely brings down the system, KeBugCheckEx) and a resulting memory dump in C:\Windows\Minidump. These files end in .dmp and can be read with a couple of utilities. I use the Debugging Tools for Windows to view these files. Note that after installing the Debugging Tools for Windows, it may be necessary to configure symbols for the debuggers. In WinDbg this is done from the File ->  Symbol File Path menu item. Using the linked article, it is possible to use the Microsoft symbol server to get all of the necessary symbols for the OS and to use the generated .pdb files for custom projects to load the necessary symbols for debugging custom applications.

After all of the initial setup tasks, starting WinDbg from the start menu is a simple task. Loading a dump file can be accomplished by pressing Ctrl+D or from the file menu using the "Open Crash Dump" command.

Since cache failures are usually detected as hardware errors, the error code 0x00000124 (WHEA_UNCORRECTABLE_ERROR) is the stop code that is displayed when the system crashes and the small memory dump is created. This error only appears on Windows Vista and later (Windows Vista, Windows Server 2008, Windows 7, and Windows Server 2008 R2). Older Windows versions (Windows XP, Windows Server 2003) crash with 0x9C MACHINE_CHECK_EXCEPTION.

The universal way to start debugging a crash dump is with the !analyze -v command. This displays key information about the process that likely caused the fault, the stack trace leading up to the crash, and key information about the error. When I look at these types of errors, I also use the !cpuinfo command to get information about the processor(s) involved with the crash.

The !cpuinfo extension command can help identify the failing processor on a multicore/multi-CPU system, but successful interpretation of the output depends on vendor documentation and how the kernel interacts with the hardware. The main value in the command is that someone interpreting the dump can use the information to help identify the processor and propose updated drivers to try before replacing the CPU. The F/M/S is the Family/Model/Stepping information for the processor. This can usually be used to identify the processor in use. In this case, this is a Family 15 Model 107 Stepping 2 64-bit processor manufactured by AMD (likely the AMD Athlon Dual Core Processor 5050e).

Once it has been identified as a WHEA_UNCORRECTABLE_ERROR, it is fairly simple to see that Arg2 is a pointer to the WHEA_ERROR_RECORD structure describing the nature of the error. This can be further analyzed by using the errrec address command where address is the address denoted by Arg2. It is simple to see from Section 0 that this was a failure during a read operation of the L1 processor cache.

This error does not always indicate a failure in the processor, but can also be caused by problems in the BIOS, so before sending the CPU back to the manufacturer or purchasing a replacement, always ensure that all of the system drivers and the BIOS are up to date. You should perform a stress test on the CPU to help determine whether a hardware issue exists. For more information, see this post.

Loading Dump File 
Mini Kernel Dump File: Only registers and stack trace are available

Symbol search path is: SRV*C:\Symbols*
Executable search path is:
Windows 7 Kernel Version 7600 MP (2 procs) Free x64
Product: WinNt, suite: TerminalServer SingleUserTS Personal
Built by: 7600.16539.amd64fre.win7_gdr.100226-1909
Machine Name:
Kernel base = 0xfffff800`02a13000 PsLoadedModuleList = 0xfffff800`02c50e50
Debug session time: Thu Jul 29 17:38:35.915 2010 (UTC - 6:00)
System Uptime: 0 days 20:28:58.649
Loading Kernel Symbols
Loading User Symbols
Loading unloaded module list
* *
* Bugcheck Analysis *
* *

Use !analyze -v to get detailed debugging information.

BugCheck 124, {0, fffffa8004b0f038, b6204000, 135}

Probably caused by : hardware

Followup: MachineOwner

0: kd> !analyze -v
* *
* Bugcheck Analysis *
* *

A fatal hardware error has occurred. Parameter 1 identifies the type of error
source that reported the error. Parameter 2 holds the address of the
WHEA_ERROR_RECORD structure that describes the error conditon.
Arg1: 0000000000000000, Machine Check Exception
Arg2: fffffa8004b0f038, Address of the WHEA_ERROR_RECORD structure.
Arg3: 00000000b6204000, High order 32-bits of the MCi_STATUS value.
Arg4: 0000000000000135, Low order 32-bits of the MCi_STATUS value.

Debugging Details:

BUGCHECK_STR: 0x124_AuthenticAMD





... : nt!KeBugCheckEx
... : hal!HalBugCheckSystem+0x1e3
... : nt!WheaReportHwError+0x263
... : hal!HalpMcaReportError+0x4c
... : hal!HalpMceHandler+0x9e
... : hal!HalHandleMcheck+0x47
... : nt!KxMcheckAbort+0x6c
... : nt!KiMcheckAbort+0x153
... : 0x698d668e



MODULE_NAME: hardware

IMAGE_NAME: hardware




Followup: MachineOwner

0: kd> !cpuinfo
CP F/M/S Manufacturer MHz PRCB Signature MSR 8B Signature Features
0 15,107,2 AuthenticAMD 3114 0000000000000000 203b7dfe

0: kd> !errrec fffffa8004b0f038
Common Platform Error Record @ fffffa8004b0f038
Record Id : 01cb2ecb7afdac79
Severity : Fatal (1)
Length : 928
Creator : Microsoft
Notify Type : Machine Check Exception
Timestamp : 7/29/2010 23:38:35
Flags : 0x00000000

Section 0 : Processor Generic
Descriptor @ fffffa8004b0f0b8
Section @ fffffa8004b0f190
Offset : 344
Length : 192
Flags : 0x00000001 Primary
Severity : Fatal

Proc. Type : x86/x64
Instr. Set : x64
Error Type : Cache error
Operation : Data Read
Flags : 0x00
Level : 1
CPU Version : 0x0000000000060fb2
Processor ID : 0x0000000000000000

Section 1 : x86/x64 Processor Specific
Descriptor @ fffffa8004b0f100
Section @ fffffa8004b0f250
Offset : 536
Length : 128
Flags : 0x00000000
Severity : Fatal

Local APIC Id : 0x0000000000000000
CPU Id : b2 0f 06 00 00 08 02 00 - 01 20 00 00 ff fb 8b 17
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 - 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00
00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 - 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00

Proc. Info 0 @ fffffa8004b0f250

Section 2 : x86/x64 MCA
Descriptor @ fffffa8004b0f148
Section @ fffffa8004b0f2d0
Offset : 664
Length : 264
Flags : 0x00000000
Severity : Fatal

Error : DCACHEL1_DRD_ERR (Proc 0 Bank 0)
Status : 0xb620400000000135
Address : 0x0000000063c20ef0
Misc. : 0x0000000000000000
Any source

FROGTOWN ARTWALK, Fifth Anniversary!

FROGTOWN ARTWALK, Fifth Anniversary

A free, self-guided tour of the artist/artisan studios of Elysian Valley
Date: August 28, 2010, 5-10 PM
The artists and artisans of Elysian Valley, otherwise known as Frogtown, are pleased to announce our fifth annual Frogtown Artwalk, a celebration of the creativity and talent flourishing in the industrial buildings along the LA River. The event is a self-guided tour of the open studios in the neighborhood.

Last year visitors wandered in and out of studios along the riverpath, starting with letter press printing demonstrations at LALA Press on Clearwater Street and ending at the multi-faceted “Blake Studios” where local bands played all evening on a stage set up along the river path. A hula-hoop contest organized by Hip-Hoops kept the kids and plenty of adventurous adults moving to the beats spun by D.J. Rell in the courtyard at Tracy A. Stone Architect. Winners took home gift certificates from our sponsors for dinners at Home Restaurant and Tomato Pie in Silverlake.

Many new artists have relocated to Elysian Valley, and again, more than 30 artists and artisans will be opening their studios. New this year are artists Bill Lagattuta and his wife, Judy Starkman, who operate out of a newly renovated warehouse right along the LA River. Graphic artists Ariel Lark and Megan Scherer offer the "Mumble Twins": a collaborative project that includes a variety of print illustrations and mixed media art based on the theme of twins. RAC Design/Build, an architecture studio on Coolidge Street, will once again feature an exhibit of landscape paintings by renowned Echo Park artist Mary-Austin Klein. Local gallery owner Patricia Perez has organized an “Art and Drum Camp” for local youth, with classes running throughout the summer. They plan to celebrate with an art parade through the neighborhood during the artwalk.

This year, the artwalk will also include free movie screenings in a park on an inflatable screen. The Elysian Valley Arts Collective has commissioned a short film about the history of Frogtown, featuring photos and interviews with neighbors and artists. This will be shown in conjunction with Magic Pebble Media’s "Heather and Goliath", a 9 minute short film that focuses on the unique story of an Army Corps whistleblower, who alerted her congress representative - Henry Waxman - and the environmental activist community to the perilous decisions that were being made within her agency with regards to the LA River.

The boundaries of Elysian Valley (Frogtown) are the 2 freeway to the north, the 110 freeway to the south, the Los Angeles River to the east, and the 5 freeway to the west. The studios will be open from 5-10 PM. Free street parking is plentiful in the area. For further details, images, and a map of the tour sites, visit the Frogtown ArtWalk website at or call the office of Tracy A. Stone Architect at (323) 664-0202.

Article any source

Open Letter from the Liberal Party

When we last heard from the Liberal party on July 15, the Central Executive Council had formed a subcommittee to write a letter to Jose Manuel Zelaya Rosales asking him to put aside their differences and to come, rejoin, and help unify the Liberal party. The Executive Council president is Elvin Santos Lozano, the father of the party's presidential candidate in the last election. He said,
we are going to invite ex President Zelaya to participate in the unity program; if he doesn't want to, we aren't going to beg anyone.

Eduardo Maldonado, secretary of Central American Integration of the Executive Council also hoped to bring into the fold the "Liberals in Resistance". Maldonado said,
Liberals in Resistance is liberal, it will continue to be liberal, and we will look to incorporate this important director Manuel Zelaya Rosales because he represents a part of the membership of the Liberal Party of Honduras.

They did this out of political expediency. Without some kind of reunification, the Liberal party will remain a minor political party. Honduras will essentially become a one party system because none of the parties, outside of National Party, will have sufficient support to win national elections.

Over a week later they were reported to still be struggling with a draft letter to Zelaya, even after his lightning response, sent to Radio Globo announcer David Romero, which we blogged about here, that he would talk to them when they expel the dictator and pronounce against the coup

Late today El Heraldo published the text of an open letter from the Central Executive Council to the membership of the Liberal party, rejecting Zelaya's conditions for talking with them and calling for unity and reconciliation of the membership.

The original text of the letter, which is translated below, can be found here.
Honduran Liberals,

The Liberal Party, through its central authorities, has demonstrated its political maturity over time to bring itself to one and all of its members, militants, men and women, to declare about the events of June 28, 2009.

We understand that our party for more than a decade has been showing a slow deterioration produced by the incorrect application of its laws, improvisation, personal ambition, abandonment by the directorate, which has provoked a profound crisis taken advantage of by some irresponsible persons, because they want to change the direction of Liberalism, whose actions were done under their name; we, all the members of the party, are not guilty.

As a result of this outbreak of actions, the full Central Executive Council agreed at a news conference, to arouse Citizen Manuel Zelaya Rosales so that, by profound reflection, he would rejoin the party, prioritizing those high ideals of the liberal flag, its doctrine, its statutes, leaving to one side personal or group ambitions to convert Liberalism into the reunifying and transforming force capable of implementing changes and profound transformations for the Honduran people.

Unfortunately, we have as a public reply from Citizen José Manuel Zelaya Rosales, a series of conditions for which this political institution is not authorized; in consequence, we are freed of our historical responsibility and this leaves the political road open for him; our party is a political institution that has free membership and voluntary withdrawal.

Throughout history, the party has always needed the granitic unity of its members, it's not important which ideological group or thought which they belong to, and only accepts as a legitimate source of public power and exercise of sovereignty the will of the people expressed at ballot boxes, freely, justly, and equally; the Party ideologically nourishes itself on social liberalism and the fundamental popular sovereignty.

With the unity of the Liberal Party, the Honduran democratic system is strengthened. The actual crisis is a breeding ground to promote anarchy, the party condemns caudillismo, colonialism and dictators; it opposes regimes that go against the will of the people and defends the rule of law.

The Central Executive Council of the Liberal party of Honduras, as the highest representative of the party, makes a fervent call to Liberals so that together we raise the flag, red, white, red in favor of party DIALOGUE. We strip any petty ambition, recognizing our errors and by honest and sincere consensus, we will encounter the UNITY AND LIBERAL RECONCILIATION as the only way to reach power.


Tegucigalpa, M.D.C. 02 August, 2010

Central Executive Council of the Liberal Party of Honduras
Any source

UN Critical of Justice Dismissal

None of the decisions that led to the dismissal of the judges and the magistrate contains the legal grounds that justify why the conduct that was the object of the disciplinary proceedings was considered to be grave.

So concluded the report of three UN Human Rights experts made public in Geneva, Switzerland, yesterday. The report, in response to the dismissal of the four judges and a magistrate by the Honduran Supreme Court earlier this year, noted that
Judges can be dismissed only on serious grounds of misconduct or incompetence, in accordance with fair procedures that guarantee objectivity and impartiality. Accepting an invitation to give a lecture, write an article, present an application for habeas corpus in favour of the dismissed president or participate in public demonstrations does not seem to meet these criteria.

The Supreme Court of Honduras notified the jurists that they were dismissed for "non-compliance or serious breaches of their duties", but the report notes that they seem to have been dismissed for their comments and writings, and participation in public protests after last year's coup d'etat, which does not seem to meet those criteria. The report also notes the Supreme Court
violated the rights of the dismissed judges to due process; they were sanctioned without having been heard and were prohibited from participating in the plenary sessions in which the court agreed to and ratified their firing.

The report also notes that the judges have appealed the decision to the Judicial Career Council of Honduras. They noted that it is important to resolve this case "in accordance with international standards in this area," and for Honduras to consolidate the independence of the judiciary.

The report, written by Gabriela Knaul, UN Special Rapporteur on the independence of judges and lawyers, Frank La Rue, UN Special Rapporteur on freedom of opinion and expression, and Margaret Sekaggya, UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights defenders, concluded that the dismissals could have the effect of intimidating other members of the judiciary to "to refrain from expressing views different from those expressed by the authorities," and that this is a disturbing message for other jurists in Honduras. They noted to EFE:
This represents an inadmissible attack against the independence of Honduran judges and magistrates, and against the freedom of opinion, expression, gathering, and is against associations which promote and protect human rights and fundamental liberties in Honduras.
Any source

Vendredi 13 Aout 2010 orageux

Forts orages pour ce Vendredi 13 Aout 2010 ?

Matin :
L'anticyclone se décalerait sur l'Europe centrale permettant la genèse d'un courant de secteur Sud.
Dans ces conditions, la journée commencerait avec un soleil radieux avec déjà une pointe de chaleur sur la moitié Ouest de la France.
Partout ailleurs, la matinée risque d'être localement fraiche.

Les températures minimales oscilleraient entre 9°C à Embrun et 22°C à Nice en passant par 13°C à Nancy, 16°C à Paris et 18°C à Toulouse.

Après midi :
Une dépression issue d'un système centré sur les îles britanniques arriverait comme un boulet de canon !
Du coup, nous aurions un conflit de masses d'air détonnant sur l'ensemble de la France, y compris sur le Nord-Ouest.
En fin de journée, il faudrait probablement s'attendre à de forts orages sur la Bretagne et Pays de la Loire.
En soirée, les orages prendraient encore plus d'ampleur du Poitou Charente à la Champagne Ardennes en passant par le Centre et l'Ile de France.

Les températures maximales seraient globalement assez chaudes pour la saison (sauf sur le Nord-Ouest) : elles partiraient de 19°C à Brest pour aller à 26°C à Nantes, 28°C à Orléans et 30°C à Strasbourg.
Au Sud, entre 25°C à Biarritz et 34°C à Grenoble en passant par 28°C à Ajaccio et 31°C à Agen.
Any source

OAS Report on Honduras

Yesterday José Miguel Insulza presented to the President of the OAS Permanent Council, Maria Isabel Salvador, the 12 page report of the High Commission appointed to report on conditions in Honduras. The full report has not yet been released, but its conclusions just appeared in the Honduran press.

As reported in El Tiempo, the High Commission proposed seven points that could make it possible for Honduras to return to the OAS:
1. The Commission considers it appropriate to end the legal cases initiated during the de facto regime against ex President Zelaya and his associates under the laws of Honduras. To adopt this recommendation, the Commission has considered that, although the two cases pending against ex-President Zelaya correspond to events that occurred well before the coup, these cases and the action of the Prosecutor's office were formalized shortly after ex-President Zelaya was overthrown in his duties as president of the country, at the same time that they presented other accusations against him like reason, abuse of authority, and others, in the middle of a negative political climate following the coup. It is evident that at the time of initiating those cases [Honduras] lived in a state of constitutional breakdown which it is not possible to ignore. Therefore , these accusations are perceived as politically motivated.

2. The Commission emphasizes the readiness of President Porfirio Lobo to give former President Zelaya the protection he is entitled to as former President of the Republic of Honduras and recommends it be implemented once former President Zelaya returns home.

3. We recommend that ex-President Zelaya ask the Directive Council of PARLACEN to incorporate him into that organization. The Commission considers that said incorporation recognizes ex-President Zelaya as the previous Constitutional President of the Republic of Honduras before President Porfirio Lobo.

4. The Commission considers that the collaboration offered by the Government of Honduras during the visit of the IACHR last May, the communications sent by President Lobo to the Secretary General about this subject, the subsequent actions reported by the Minister Advisor on Human Rights and the Special Prosecutor on Human Rights, and the presence of an external advisor for the investigation of the crimes against journalists and human rights activists, among others, are positive steps. At the same time, the Commission recognizes the necessity of concrete steps in fulfilling the recommendations of the IACHR, especially the following:

4a. Steady progress in the investigations to clarify the murder of various persons, among them journalists and human rights activists.

4b. The adoption of measures to put an end to the threats and attacks on human rights activists, journalists, social communicators, teachers, members of the Frente Nacional de Resistencia Popular, judges who participated in activities against the coup and the effective implementation of fulfilling the protective measures dictated to protect the life and integrity of numerous at-risk persons. The Commission received the communication of the Minister Advisor on Human Rights informing it that the Secretary of Security had created a Human Rights unit to support the Special Prosecutor of Human Rights.

4c. Provide the Inter-Institutional Commission on Human Rights of Honduras the qualified staff and resources sufficient for them to respond in an efficient manner to defend the human rights of Hondurans and the protective measures of the IACHR. The Commission has seen the letter of the Minister Advisor on Human Rights which reports on the decision of the government to create a Ministry of Justice and Human Rights.

4d. An end to impunity for violations of Human Rights, including those verified by the IACHR and the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights of the UN. The Commission knows about the creation of a Unit for the Investigation of Human Rights Violations in the Special Prosecutor for Human Rights office to support investigations in these cases.

4e. Effective support for the work of the Special Prosecutor of Human Rights and the Office of the Minister Advisor on Human Rights. The Commission values the work that both institutions does, in spite of the precariousness of financial and human resources. We consider this work could have a significant impact on the validity of human rights, if they were assigned the necessary resources to carry out an effect oversight, protection, and transformation of the State to a culture of promotion and protection of human rights. The Commission notes with satisfaction the proposal of the Honduran Government to assign resources to these institutions and supports its prompt implementation. It also knows the requests for collaboration sent to the governments of Colombia and the US for investigation of violations of human rights.

5. The Commission considers the work of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission must count on the full support and collaboration of all sectors of Honduran society to determine what happened on June 28, 2009. The Commission notes with satisfaction the disposition of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission to examine the theme of human rights violations in the context of the coup.

6. The Commission notes the willingness of President Lobo to convoke a national dialogue between the political sectors, in which they would discuss themes of interest to all the parties, with the objective to reach a reconciliation of Honduran society. For this it is necessary to avoid any impediments or hostility towards them, especially towards those opposed to the present government. Their security and protection must be guaranteed by the authorities.

7. The Commission presents this report for consideration by the General Assembly so that, in conformity with the Charter of the OAS and the Inter-American Democratic Charter, it can adopt the decisions it considers appropriate with respect to the situation of Honduras.

These conclusions will not be well received by some sectors in Honduras.

Point 3 makes explicit that the de facto government of Roberto Micheletti should not be recognized as having had any legitimacy. For this international body, presidential succession went from Manuel Zelaya to Porfirio Lobo Sosa. At the same time , the report implicitly recognizes as legitimate the November 2009 elections despite the lack of normal institutional international election observers.

If you read our previous post on Rodolfo Pastor Fasquelle's press release on his conversations in Washington with Insulza, representing Manuel Zelaya, many of these points will not be a surprise.

Pastor Fasquelle reported substantial agreement between Insulza and himself on what steps Honduras needed to take to return to the OAS. It was, he reported, Arturo Corrales, representing Lobo, who could not accept some of the points.

Of the five points that Pastor Fasquelle reported he and Insulza agreed on, only his fourth point, a proposal to enlarge the official Truth and Reconciliation Commission by adding a FNRP member, is not mirrored clearly in the final report by the OAS High Commission. In the OAS report, point five presents a watered down wording that calls for the Commission to have the full support and collaboration of all sectors of Honduran society, leaving it to the Honduran government, how to achieve that (or not).

Pastor Fasquelle's fifth point, calling for a broad national dialogue to study the right to a Constitutional Assembly, is redirected in the OAS conclusion six as simply a broad national dialogue, with no mention of a Constitutional Assembly. As it is written in the OAS version, conclusion 6 is a bit puzzling. It calls for a discussion between the political sectors, which would explicitly leave out the FNRP, which is not a political party. There can be no meaningful reconciliation in Honduras without bringing the FNRP to the table.

As the OAS report has just been reported, it's too early to tell what the reaction in Honduras will be. Pay attention to how it gets spun in the different press stories that report on it over the next several days, to get an idea of who feels they have won or lost in this step of the OAS process.Any source

Features of the week

We've got some great items for you on the economic recovery, the story of the Weimar hyperinflation, strategies and outlook of top-performing hedge funds, and more in this Friday's "Features". Enjoy the links.

1. Top performing hedge funds that dodged the crash & rode market rally back turn gloomy - Bloomberg.

2. BBC interviews Adam Fergusson, author of When Money Dies.

3. Read Adam Fergusson's history of the Weimar hyperinflation, When Money Dies, along with Jens O. Parsson's Dying of Money online for free - Prudent Investor.

4. Anthony Boeckh on The Artificial Recovery (pdf) - Financial Sense.

5. The Ruling Elite Called... (James Quinn) - Financial Sense.

6. AR TV on the state of the financial world - Abnormal Returns.

7. Breaking down 2Q earnings season - WSJ Marketbeat.

8. Humans are "slightly smarter, pants-wearing primates": Monkey Economics - Big Picture.

9. Why America locks up too many people - The Economist.

10. Geoff Gannon interviews Jon Heller of the Cheap Stocks blog - Controlled Greed.

Have a great weekend and stop back soon!

If you'd like to keep up with Finance Trends updates throughout the week, you can also subscribe to our RSS feed and follow us on Twitter.
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An Interesting Look Back at Economic History

GDP data revisions sometimes can have the effect of re-framing our thoughts on the nature of the business cycle we just went through. For instance, the revisions released this morning showed something interesting about 2008.

The interesting thing to me was that Q3 2008 was simply wretched and much more so than we had previously thought. An annualized 4.0% contraction is fairly poor, though not entirely surprising given that Q3 was the quarter most heavily impacted by the ridiculous levels of oil prices at the time. That effect is borne out in the finer points of the data where consumer spending declines accounted for fully 2.5 points of that 4.0. This is what you would expect given the huge hit to purchasing power consumers took.

I think this confirms what James Hamilton over at Econbrowser has argued for some time which is that the oil shock in 2008 had a much larger contribution to the severity of that recession than we give it credit for. Bear in mind, Lehman collapsed in mid-September and its full effects were not really in place until the end of the month. Lehman's effect was mainly a Q4 event, and of course Q4 and Q1 2009 were simply abysmal quarters. However, it is clear that even without the collapse of Lehman that we were in the midst of a severe recession due to the combination of the grind of the housing collapse and the oil shock in 2008.

To some extent, other data revisions reflect this as non-farm payrolls were in very steep decline in the late summer of 2008 even before the effects of Lehman. Now the picture is a little more complete.Any source

How Big is the Chinese Property Bubble? Pretty Big

I stumbled across a bunch of charts the other day and this one in particular caught my eye: (Credit goes to Jing Wu, Joseph Gyouko and Yongheng Deng at NBER)

What I have said for some time is that despite migration patterns providing a substantial level of support to real estate in China, there is a fundamental problem where price gains have far outstripped income increases. This is also the reason I don't buy the idea that all of these houses are being bought strictly with cash, or at least cash that isn't at some point supported by debt. It just isn't possible.

Just to give you some idea of what a price to income ratio of over 20.0x in Shenzhen means, here in the U.S. California had a price to income ratio of right about 10.0x before prices started plummeting to about half of their all time high. Other markets still had decent sized corrections with price to income ratios of only 4-5x. Generally, much north of 4x is considered to be on the edge of pushing it nationally here while some markets can sustain, over time, more like 5-6x. I've seen some countries that can apparently sustain near 7x, but even for those countries that seems to be the point at which prices stagnate and wait for incomes to catch up.

Returning to China, it is true that there is regional variation, but that has been true in every real estate bubble in history. Here LA, New York, Miami, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Detroit all had very different dynamics. In the U.K., London, Liverpool, Manchester, Brighton, and Newcastle had varying degrees of excess. The same applied in Spain in the 2000s and Japan in the 1980s. It's a very non-compelling argument to say the least. What's more is that price to income levels mask another trait of real estate excess which is that those on the bottom end of the income spectrum often get caught up in the frenzy and buy much more house than they can afford in otherwise not particularly overpriced markets such as Atlanta.

It is unclear how much further this has to go, but perhaps Alex can expand with some first hand details on what he saw there.Any source

20100730 T-shirt Collection 001 - MLB Yankees

It ain't Luck. -

等了快十年, 洋基終於又拿到了世界大賽冠軍, 絕非僥倖, 金錢堆砌出來的黃金陣容, 鑽石打線, 卻也不是那麼容易能買到冠軍, 畢竟就是買了這麼多年

2001 被Randy Johnson + Curt Schilling 左右護法給完全宰制
2003 被大魔王Josh Beckett擊敗
之後起起伏伏, 買進Randy Johnson, Jason Giambi .. 都沒用
2006, 2007 王建民19勝
直到2009完成奪冠陣容 - Damon/Jeter/Teixeira/A-Rod/Matsui/Cano/Posada/Swisher + Sabathia/Burnett/Pettitte/Rivera
World Series -
2000 New York Yankees 4 : 1 New York Mets
2001 Arizona Dimondbacks 4 : 3 New York Yankees
2002 Anaheim Angels 4 : 3 San Francisco Giants
2003 Florida Marlins 4 : 2 New York Yankees
2004 Boston Red Sox 4 : 0 St. Luis Cardinals
2005 Chicago White Sox 4 : 0 Houston Astros
2006 St. Louis Cardinals 4 : 1 Detroit Tigers
2007 Bostin Red Sox 4 : 0 Colorado Rockies
2008 Philadelphia Phillies 4 : 1 Tampa Bay Rays
2009 New York Yankees 4 : 2 Philadelphia Phillies

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Primers incendis i primeres tempestes fortes de l’estiu

Aquesta setmana hem tingut els primers incendis importants a Catalunya i les primeres tempestes severes.

Incendi de Vilopriu (Baix Empordà). Fotos: Naciodigital

Les primeres tempestes fortes de l'estiu a Badalona i Manresa

Imatge del radar d'ahir a la tarda

Imatges de Badalona. Fotos: Oriol Rodríguez

Imatges de Manresa. Fotos: Naciodigital

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