Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Greek shoppers look but don't buy as economic crisis bites

 helena

Helena Smith in Athens

guardian.co.uk, Monday 30 January 2012 15.02 GMT

Athens shopping streets may be busy, but thousands of stores are going out of business in the sector's worst crisis in decades

Shoppers on Ermou street, Athens

Ermou, Athens – the shopping street has been bustling, but many in Greece are now opting to window shop. Photograph: George S de Blonsky/Alamy

In recent weeks Antonis Megoulis, who heads the national confederation of Greek commerce, has been playing spot the shopping bag.

Standing on Ermou, an Athens street that once commanded Europe's highest rents from retailers, he counted the number of shopping bags carried by passersby. "If you do it yourself you will see there are hardly any at all," he said. "Consumers are out there looking but no one is buying."

As winter sales began in Greece, Ermou was certainly bustling, but even with prices slashed by as much as 70%, cash-strapped Greeks were still more interested in window shopping than snapping up goods.

Consumers suffering wage and pension cuts, rising inflation and a recession of a severity not seen since the second world war ensured that shops had one of their worst Christmases on record, with retail sales down 30% on the previous year.

"It couldn't be worse," said Megoulis. "Our monthly surveys are shocking reads. Sales are down, businesses are closing every day and there are no signs of optimism on the horizon."

To say that the country's retail sector is experiencing its worst crisis in decades would be an understatement. Since mid-2009, when the global economic slowdown began to bite, until mid-September last year, some 65,000 stores have been forced to shut their doors.

Tough austerity measures, including a wave of new levies and tax increases demanded by the foreign lenders keeping the nation afloat, have pushed another 50,000 to the brink of bankruptcy.

About 55,000 employees working in small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) – the mainstay of Greek enterprise – have lost their jobs with many more to follow, according to the confederation of Greek commerce, Esee.

Esee does not hold out much hope the discounts on offer until the end of the month will see sales improve. "What we are seeing is a very serious liquidity crisis," said Megoulis. "People have been pushed to their limits. They haven't got any money to spare."

With Greece's economy expected to contract by a further 6% this year, Esee and other independent chambers of commerce estimate as many as half of the remaining 324,000 SMEs will soon be forced to shut – in sharp contrast to big chains such as Kotsovolos, Greece's leading specialist electrical retailer, which was acquired by Dixons in 2004. Its 102 stores are doing relatively well.

As SMEs account for 85% of employment in the private sector, the closures will exacerbate the economy's other silent killer – joblessness – also at a record high, of 18.5%.

"Most of those affected are women as they make up the vast majority of the retail sector's workforce," said Dimitra Gournari, who heads Esee's statistics office. "Seventy percent of the newly unemployed are female and young."

Worse still, with little or no vocational training available to redirect them, the prospect of future job options are few and far between.

Outside major cities, where privately owned businesses are also run as family affairs, retailers frequently keep Greek rural areas alive.

Fears abound that if the sharp downturn continues, with more locally owned enterprises replaced by foreign-owned monopolies, it won't only be the marketplace that suffers but also Greek consumers. The eradication of Greece's middle class could also spell political trouble as disenchanted shop owners turn increasingly to extremist parties on the left and right.

"If small- and medium-sized businesses disappear and multinationals, which can better afford to work at a loss, begin to dominate the market, the lack of competition will inevitably mean higher prices," said Megoulis. "What we are seeing is a reshaping of Greek society but in a way that is haphazard, disorganised and frankly frightening."

While clothing and footwear sales have dropped precipitously, sales in the food and drinks sector have fared better. All over Athens, new restaurants are doing well – testimony to the adage that even in hard times people continue to splash out on food and drink.

"We're busy, at times too busy," said John Higgins, an American who opened Mama Roux, a no-nonsense restaurant specialising in international cuisine on a busy boulevard with a view of the Acropolis.

But it is big brands such as Nike, which has just opened a giant store in Syntagma Square, and Marks & Spencer that look set to emerge as winners in Greece's economic crisis. Customers emerging from the UK retailer's Ermou store last week were among the few in possession of a shopping bag.

Greek shoppers look but don't buy as economic crisis bites | World news | The Guardian

Any source

Greek officials attack EU and IMF as debt talks stall

Phillip Inman and Helena Smith

guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 31 January 2012 19.37 GMT

Prime minister Lucas Papademos calls crisis meeting to ask backers for further concessions after 'tough and honest' discussions in Brussels and Frankfurt

Lucas Papademos

Greece's prime minister Lucas Papademos returned from negotiations with the troika in sombre mood. Photograph: Sebastien Pirlet/Reuters

Greek officials launched a vociferous behind the scenes attack on European Union and International Monetary Fund negotiators as talks in Athens over the country's mounting debts appeared to stall.

Prime minister Lucas Papademos told aides that a crisis meeting of party leaders would be called as early as Thursday to thrash out a response to an increasingly intransigent negotiating team sent by Brussels, which is demanding severe austerity measures before sanctioning a further €130bn (£109bn) of bailout funds.

Papademos, the economist temporarily heading a transition government in Athens, wants party leaders backing his administration to make further concessions to bring talks to a swift end.

Papademos and his team of aides returned in sombre mood on Tuesday from a round of talks in Brussels and Frankfurt at the offices of the European Central Bank (ECB), despite relief that a German proposal to install an EU commissioner in Athens, with special oversight of Greek finances, had been quashed.

One aide said: "All round there is an understanding that the situation is quite dramatic. Our discussions in Brussels were tough and honest with things being laid out in an austere manner.

"We understand how difficult it is for MPs who are now faced with the hard option of voting through another round of austerity measures but the stakes are very high and one of our greatest concerns is that they don't understand just how high they are."

Athens is holding parallel talks with private creditors over a 50% writedown of its debts while also meeting a troika of negotiators from the EU, IMF and ECB over a new bailout fund. Greece must obtain agreement for further bailout funds to be released before it can conclude the deal with its private creditors. Talks with private creditors, which are expected to slice an estimated €100bn from Greece's €350bn debt pile, have faced difficulties following objections from banks that they are being asked to take bigger losses than they expected after a deterioration in the outlook for the Greek economy.

However, finance minister Evangelos Venizelos put on a brave face publicly and said that he believed an agreement on the debt swap was close. "We are one step [away]. I would say it is a formality away from finalising (the debt relief agreement)," Venizelos told a news conference. "The next few days will determine what happens over the coming decade."

On the negotiations over the bailout funds, Greek MPs have objected to demands by the troika for further wage cuts and reductions in the minimum wage.

"The troika doesn't appear to be willing to accept any concessions whatsoever on reducing the minimum wage and scrapping bonuses," said the government aide. "No political party is willing to move either, saying wage cuts are a red line they are simply not going to cross. You tell me how this is going to be resolved. We have no idea and we're very worried."

The deadlock in Athens followed poor unemployment data for the eurozone that revealed a widening split between the continent's rich north and indebted south.

Figures for December showed unemployment at a record high of 10.4%. Spain's unemployment stands at a staggering 22.9% and Greece's is not far behind at 19.2%. Germany's unemployment rate fell to 6.7% in January, separate figures showed, a new record low since figures for a unified Germany were first published, while Austria boasted the eurozone's lowest jobless rate at 4.1%, followed by the Netherlands at 4.9%.

Greek officials attack EU and IMF as debt talks stall | Business | The Guardian

Any source

Scope Of Audit

In ancient period, there was limited scope of audit because there was no development of business. Generally, auditor used to check cash transactions if there were suspected frauds. But in the recent years, scope of audit has increased. Now-a-days auditing is related to the examination of books of account, evidence, bills, stock and its physical verification etc.
Now-a-days, it is not possible to go through the books of account. So, an auditor applies test check. But such test is possible in such organization where effective internal check system is applied. An auditor should analyse the suspected frauds so as to find out the fact but an auditor should depend on the information provided by the concerned officer.
An auditor should prepare and present report after the examination of profit and loss account and balance sheet. Auditor does not only check the books of account on the basis of evidence but also has to check the authenticity of documents. An auditor should set his mind in that area where he is not satisfied with the records. Despite having above facts, attention of audit can be set up as follows:
i. Checking of books of accounts so as to find out the truth and fairness.
ii. Verification of assets and liabilities after its detail checking.
iii. Checking of books of accounts on the basis of available evidence.
iv. Checking arithmetical accuracy of books of accounts.
v. Expressing independent opinion about the financial statements.
vi. Preparing and presenting fair report to the concerned officer or owners.

Article any source

Scope Of Audit

In ancient period, there was limited scope of audit because there was no development of business. Generally, auditor used to check cash transactions if there were suspected frauds. But in the recent years, scope of audit has increased. Now-a-days auditing is related to the examination of books of account, evidence, bills, stock and its physical verification etc.
Now-a-days, it is not possible to go through the books of account. So, an auditor applies test check. But such test is possible in such organization where effective internal check system is applied. An auditor should analyse the suspected frauds so as to find out the fact but an auditor should depend on the information provided by the concerned officer.
An auditor should prepare and present report after the examination of profit and loss account and balance sheet. Auditor does not only check the books of account on the basis of evidence but also has to check the authenticity of documents. An auditor should set his mind in that area where he is not satisfied with the records. Despite having above facts, attention of audit can be set up as follows:
i. Checking of books of accounts so as to find out the truth and fairness.
ii. Verification of assets and liabilities after its detail checking.
iii. Checking of books of accounts on the basis of available evidence.
iv. Checking arithmetical accuracy of books of accounts.
v. Expressing independent opinion about the financial statements.
vi. Preparing and presenting fair report to the concerned officer or owners.
Any source

Objectives Of Audit

Basic objective of auditing is to prove true and fairness of results presented by profit and loss account and financial position presented by balance sheet. Its objectives are classified into two groups which are given below:

A. Primary Objectives Of Audit
The main objectives of audit are known as primary objectives of audit. They are as follows:
i. Examining the system of internal check.
ii. Checking arithmetical accuracy of books of accounts, verifying posting, costing, balancing etc.
iii. Verifying the authenticity and validity of transactions.
iv. Checking the proper distinction of capital and revenue nature of transactions.
v. Confirming the existence and value of assets and liabilities.
vi. Verifying whether all the statutory requirements are fulfilled or not.
vii. Proving true and fairness of operating results presented by income statement and financial position presented by balance sheet.

B. Subsidiary Objectives Of Audit
These are such objectives which are set up to help in attaining primary objectives. They are as follows:
i. Detection and prevention of errors
Errors are those mistakes which are committed due to carelessness or negligence or lack of knowledge or without having vested interest. Errors may be committed without or with any vested interest. So, they are to be checked carefully. Errors are of various types. Some of them are:
* Errors of principle
* Errors of omission
* Errors of commission
* Compensating errors

ii. Detection and prevention of frauds
Frauds are those mistakes which are committed knowingly with some vested interest on the direction of top level management. Management commits frauds to deceive tax, to show the effectiveness of management, to get more commission, to sell share in the market or to maintain market price of share etc. Detection of fraud is the main job of an auditor. Such frauds are as follows:
* Misappropriation of cash
* Misappropriation of goods
* Manipulation of accounts or falsification of accounts without any misappropriation

iii. Under or over valuation of stock
Normally such frauds are committed by the top level executives of the business. So, the explanation given to the auditor also remains false. So, an auditor should detect such frauds using skill, knowledge and facts.

iv. Other objectives
* To provide information to income tax authority.
* To satisfy the provision of company Act.
* To have moral effect

Article any source

Objectives Of Audit

Basic objective of auditing is to prove true and fairness of results presented by profit and loss account and financial position presented by balance sheet. Its objectives are classified into two groups which are given below:

A. Primary Objectives Of Audit
The main objectives of audit are known as primary objectives of audit. They are as follows:
i. Examining the system of internal check.
ii. Checking arithmetical accuracy of books of accounts, verifying posting, costing, balancing etc.
iii. Verifying the authenticity and validity of transactions.
iv. Checking the proper distinction of capital and revenue nature of transactions.
v. Confirming the existence and value of assets and liabilities.
vi. Verifying whether all the statutory requirements are fulfilled or not.
vii. Proving true and fairness of operating results presented by income statement and financial position presented by balance sheet.

B. Subsidiary Objectives Of Audit
These are such objectives which are set up to help in attaining primary objectives. They are as follows:
i. Detection and prevention of errors
Errors are those mistakes which are committed due to carelessness or negligence or lack of knowledge or without having vested interest. Errors may be committed without or with any vested interest. So, they are to be checked carefully. Errors are of various types. Some of them are:
* Errors of principle
* Errors of omission
* Errors of commission
* Compensating errors

ii. Detection and prevention of frauds
Frauds are those mistakes which are committed knowingly with some vested interest on the direction of top level management. Management commits frauds to deceive tax, to show the effectiveness of management, to get more commission, to sell share in the market or to maintain market price of share etc. Detection of fraud is the main job of an auditor. Such frauds are as follows:
* Misappropriation of cash
* Misappropriation of goods
* Manipulation of accounts or falsification of accounts without any misappropriation

iii. Under or over valuation of stock
Normally such frauds are committed by the top level executives of the business. So, the explanation given to the auditor also remains false. So, an auditor should detect such frauds using skill, knowledge and facts.

iv. Other objectives
* To provide information to income tax authority.
* To satisfy the provision of company Act.
* To have moral effect
Any source

Concept And Meaning Of Auditing

The word 'Audit' is derived from the Latin word 'Audire' which means 'to listen'. In the past , owner used to appoint auditor when he/she suspect fraud. Auditor used to listen the explanation given by persons responsible for financial transactions. At that time, auditing was conducted only to locate errors and frauds. But, after the development of double entry book-keeping system, the duty of an auditor was described at first. After that, scope of audit has been increased. After industrial revolution, scope, size and complexity of business have been increased and owner and management remain separate. So, now-a-days, auditing is the act of checking books of accounts by an independent person for the purpose of proving true and fairness of results of operation presented by income statement and financial position presented by balance sheet detecting and preventing errors and frauds. So, auditing is that act which checks whether all the personal and impersonal ledger balances are shown properly or not , accounting is maintained properly or not, whether the frauds and errors are committed in the books of accounts or not. An independent person who checks books of account is known as Auditor. Therefore, we can draw the following facts in connection to audit.

1. Checking of books of accounts and documents of evident on the basis of generally accepted principles and procedures.

2. Checking of works performed by the staffs whether they have been performed within the limitation of authority or not.

3. Checking the books of accounts whether the results presented by profit and loss account and financial position presented by balance sheet are true and fair or not.

4. Preparation of report based on the fact found during the course of audit.

Article any source

Concept And Meaning Of Auditing

The word 'Audit' is derived from the Latin word 'Audire' which means 'to listen'. In the past , owner used to appoint auditor when he/she suspect fraud. Auditor used to listen the explanation given by persons responsible for financial transactions. At that time, auditing was conducted only to locate errors and frauds. But, after the development of double entry book-keeping system, the duty of an auditor was described at first. After that, scope of audit has been increased. After industrial revolution, scope, size and complexity of business have been increased and owner and management remain separate. So, now-a-days, auditing is the act of checking books of accounts by an independent person for the purpose of proving true and fairness of results of operation presented by income statement and financial position presented by balance sheet detecting and preventing errors and frauds. So, auditing is that act which checks whether all the personal and impersonal ledger balances are shown properly or not , accounting is maintained properly or not, whether the frauds and errors are committed in the books of accounts or not. An independent person who checks books of account is known as Auditor. Therefore, we can draw the following facts in connection to audit.

1. Checking of books of accounts and documents of evident on the basis of generally accepted principles and procedures.

2. Checking of works performed by the staffs whether they have been performed within the limitation of authority or not.

3. Checking the books of accounts whether the results presented by profit and loss account and financial position presented by balance sheet are true and fair or not.

4. Preparation of report based on the fact found during the course of audit.
Any source

CREATING SPACE FOR REORIENTING A MESSY SPIRITUALITY WITH ARTISAN BEER


For centuries, monasteries served as bastions of civility, preserving, learning and extending charity to those around them. In this context, people were orientated into a rich tradition of artisan beer making. The tradition was one that provided for the poor, created conversations, and evidenced a belief in a God who desires to see life and creativity flourish.

Sadly, this sacred craft has all but disappeared from the Church today. We have become disoriented. For this reason Northland Village Church (www.northlandvillagechurch.com) and Strategic Monk (www.strategicmonk.com) have partnered to create trilogy of reorientation for those who choose to participate with the craft. 

Thus, we hope that this beer will be some fruit of our labor. We hope enjoying it will spark good dialogue and create a space for deep reflection on the beauty of this life as we attempt to reorient our messy spirituality and brewing back toward something more real. 

Through the generosity of the people at Northland Village Church we will be providing a FREE BEER for anyone who dares with the hopes of connecting their spirit with the mysterious medium of beer. (Only 21 and over event and alternatives to alcohol will also be provided.) 

Monday, February 13th - 7pm
55 Degree Wine
3111 Glendale Blvd
Los Angeles, CA 90039
One Free Beer Per Person


Article any source

Lluvias y Temperaturas Máximas del Lunes-30-enero-2012...


Carta de Lluvias Caídas, desde las 09 hs del Lunes 30 a las 09 hs del Martes 31-Enero de 2012.
La Zona de Lluvias y Tormentas se extendió en especial a gran parte de La Pampa, centro y norte bonaerense, y a diversas regiones de Córdoba, Santa Fe y Entre Ríos.
Se visualizan núcleos rojos de 50 a 100 mm, sobre el norte bonaerense y norte de Córdoba.
Gran parte del Sur y Sud-Este bonaerense, "se quedó" sin Lluvia, en esta Situación Meteorológica (zonas de color blanco).
--- Datos del Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (de Argentina).


Mapa de Temperaturas Máximas, registradas en la tarde del Lunes 30-Enero de 2012.


Se destaca la presencia de Aire Tropical muy caliente en el Centro y Norte de Argentina.
En la Carta, se visualiza una región con 40ºC ó más, sobre sectores de La Rioja, Catamarca, Santiago del Estero, Chaco, Santa Fe y N.O. de Córdoba.


--- Fuente: Servicio Meteorológico Nacional.  www.smn.gov.ar

------------------------

Any source

COMIENZA EL SEGUIMIENTO METEOROLÓGICO ESPECIAL DE LA OLA DE FRÍO SIBERIANO FEBRERO 2012


Hola a todos. Con este post doy por comenzado el seguimiento meteorológico especial de la situación que se nos presenta en este recién comenzado mes de febrero. Y la situación no es otra que una invasión de aire muy frío procedente de Europa, concretamente de aire siberiano, el cuál ya está dando muchos problemas en muchas zonas del este y centro del contienente, desgraciadamente con numerosas víctimas mortales. 

Aquí el episodio no será tan extremo pero si destacable, ya que está previsto que en la misma ciudad de Barcelona, sobre todo a partir del viernes, las temperaturas puedan ser verdaderamente gélidas, quedando las mínimas claramente bajo cero en todos los barrios, incluyendo los más cercanos a la costa y el centro de la ciudad. Si es así en la capital catalana, en lugares más abiertos la bajada de temperaturas será más que evidente. 

A todo esto, hay que añadir que durante la primera etapa de esta invasión de aire siberiano, en nuestra zona estará afectándonos una pequeña borrasca mediterránea, que nos dará precipitaciones ya este miércoles. Será a partir de la tarde y sobre todo la noche del miércoles, madrugada y mañana del jueves 2 de febrero cuando hay posibilidades de que la cota de nieve se sitúe a 200 metros e incluso más abajo. Esto es muy difícil de prever hasta para los profesionales de la meteorología, por el movimiento errático de esta borrasca y su coincidencia con la entrada del aire más frío que entrará en altura, con la consecuencia que la precipitación se pueda convertir en sólida. 

Recordad que estaré haciendo seguimiento a través de twitter contando todas las novedades que puedan acontecer, tanto lluvia como posible nieve en nuestra zona. 

Aquí os pongo un pequeño resumen de lo que marca uno de los modelos meteorológicos de la situación y la evolución de ésta durante los próximos días.

Antes si os fijáis en las imágenes del satélite, la borrasca que nos ha pasado cerca de nuestra zona sin pena ni gloria durante este martes pasado 31 de enero, con su movimiento antihorario, hace que el aire más frío que hay en centroeuropa se vaya desplazando hacia nosotros.


MIÉRCOLES 1 DE FEBRERO  

El miércoles ya tendremos la borrasca en el Mediterráneo afectándonos, y el día será gris con ambiente frío durante el día. En este mapa a 5500 metros de altura vemos como los vientos son de noreste y la temperatura a esa altura ya es muy baja, a -30ºc

El mapa de temperaturas a 1500 metros nos muestra como la capa de aire frío está a las puertas de Catalunya, con una temperatura de -5ºc. Durante el miércoles tendremos la temperatura a esa altura de 0ºc hasta bien entrada la tarde.


Como podemos ver en el mapa de precipitaciones, este miércoles hay posibilidad de que se produzcan lluvias, de carácter débil de todas maneras, o como mucho, de forma moderada en nuestra zona. Es aquí donde entrará en juego la posibilidad de que todavía tengamos precipitaciones justo en el momento que la masa de aire más fría comience a llegar a nuestra zona. Esto haría que la precipitación sea en forma de nieve. 


                                                                                                                                                                    

JUEVES 2 DE FEBRERO

Para el jueves vemos en el mapa a 5500 metros que la masa de aire muy fría ya se ha adentrado mucho en toda la  península ibérica, abrazándola en prácticamente su totalidad. Esto es debido a la borrasca, que la vemos situada el sureste de Baleares, que con su movimiento antihorario, hace de motor y arrastra el aire frío que hay en el centro de Europa hacia nuestra zona. Sobre Catalunya ya se cernería la bolsa de aire más fría con -35ºc a los 5500 metros.

En el mapa para el jueves a 1500 metros vemos como la temperatura a esa altura ya sería de -8ºc o -10ºc, haciendo esta situación que la temperatura en superficie se ya muy baja, tanto las mínimas como las máximas. 


El mapa de precipitaciones nos muestra que todavía el jueves podemos tener en nuestra zona, que casi seguro, con estas temperaturas ya bien bajas, podrían ser en forma de nieve, de todas formas no sería una gran nevada. Donde si podría ser una nevada considerable es en Baleares, donde se pueden ver las manchas más oscuras de precipitación. Atención porque allí si que pueden ser bastante importantes estas nevadas. Habrá que seguirlo de cerca. Allí serían claramente a cota cero.



VIERNES 3 DE FEBRERO

El viernes todo parece indicar que la borrasca se irá retirando hacia el este, lo que hará que el viento gire más a norte, siendo más seco y por tanto la precipitación prácticamente desaparecería. Vemos en el mapa de 5500 metros como la masa de aire de -35ºc sigue bien presente en nuestra zona. Si os fijáis las isóbaras están muy juntas, eso significa viento que haría que la entrada de aire más frío se acelere.

En el mapa de temperaturas a 1500 metros vemos como la -5ºc sigue afectándonos de lleno. A partir de aquí las mínimas en toda Catalunya y parte de la península serían bajo cero prácticamente.

En el mapa de precipitaciones vemos que en principio, a nuestra zona ya dejarían de afectarnos, no en Baleares donde todavía podrían haber pero de forma más débil.



SÁBADO 4 DE FEBRERO

El sábado más de lo mismo, y esto haría que este episodio se convertiría en ola de frío por su duración, ya que serían ya 3 los días consecutivos con frío muy intenso afectándonos. Seguiremos, según los mapas de este martes, con la masa de aire de -35ºc a 5500 metros.

Y este mapa si es contundente a lo que temperaturas se refiere. Y es que sobre nosotros y toda la zona del Mediterráneo tendríamos la masa de aire más fría, con -10ºc a 1500 metros de altitud. Esto hará que el sábado las mínimas sean bajísimas, con heladas generales en toda nuestra zona y gran parte del Mediterráneo.

En el mapa de precipitaciones seguiríamos al margen de éstas, aunque los mapas aquí no se acaban de poner de acuerdo del todo. Lo que si parece claro es que en Baleares podrían seguir teniendo precipitaciones en forma de nieve.




DOMINGO 5 DE FEBRERO

El domingo no está claro que pasará. Los mapas no se ponen de acuerdo, Según éstos, Nos entraría el anticiclón y la masa de aire siberiano se iría retirando.  































De todas maneras en el mapa de temperaturas a 1500 metros seguiremos teniendo temperaturas de -6 o -8ºc por lo que seguirá siendo el ambiente muy frío.


En el mapa de precipitaciones se ve claramente como irán a menos también en Baleares. En nuestra zona serán nulas.


































Y esto es aproximadamente lo que puede ocurrir en este episodio de ola de aire siberiano. Decir que el frío está asegurado, pero el tema de las posibles nevadas a cotas muy bajas en nuestra zona, no se puede asegurar 100%. Ahora toca seguirlo de cerca, con radares y satélites. 

Recordaros una vez más que me podréis seguir a través de twitter en este seguimiento meteorológico especial , que se presenta de lo más interesante sin duda de lo que llevamos de invierno. El enlace está en la parte superior derecha de la pantalla, o buscándome en twitter por @meteosantboi.

Mucha precaución con este frío riguroso que se nos viene encima y con las posibles nevadas. Seguid los consejos de las autoridades tanto de emergencias como de protección civil. 

Nada más, a disfrutar de la meteorología, en uno de sus fenómenos más severos en nuestra zona.





Any source

Las heladas negras.

Muchas veces hemos oído hablar de este término,pero ¿qué es realmente una helada negra?-
Lo primero que tenemos que decir es qué se define como helada,lo cual como muchos sabréis simplemente consiste en que la temperatura del aire baje por debajo de los 0ºC. Por debajo de esa temperatura y a las presiones que tenemos en nuestro planeta,el agua se vuelve sólida formando cristales de hielo hexagonales que se van uniendo y que es lo que denominamos escarcha.
Pero no siempre que la temperatura baja de 0ºC tiene porque formarse escarcha y es que las heladas pueden ser de 2 tipos:
-Heladas blancas: la temperatura baja por debajo de los 0ºC y además,iguala o se acerca mucho a la temperatura de rocío del aire. Cuando esto ocurre,cuando la temperatura del aire se aproxima a la de rocío aparece la condensación.Si la temperatura a la que se produce eso es positiva se forma rocío,que se deposita sobre coches,árboles,plantas,aceras,etc y si se produce a temperaturas por debajo de 0ºC se forma escarcha.

-Helada negra: las heladas negras se producen cuando la temperatura baja por debajo de los 0ºC pero no se forma escarcha. Esto es debido a que el aire es tan seco que la temperatura no iguala a la de rocío y por tanto no se produce condensación ni formación de escarcha. El cielo cubierto o semicubierto o la turbulencia en capas bajas de la atmósfera favorece la formación de este tipo de heladas.
Estas heladas negras son temidas en el campo debido a los daños que producen.Este frío seco ataca directamente la estructura interna de las plantas haciendo que los cristales de hielo en forma de cuchillos que se forman en las células vegetales la desgarren y las membranas internas se secan debido al propio proceso de congelanción. Todo eso se traduce en ese aspecto negro que cogen de repente los tejidos vegetales como en las hojas o tallos jóvenes pudiendo morir la planta entera si los daños afectan a partes vitales.
Las heladas negras son muy dañinas cuando las plantas se encuentran en estado vegetativo activo.Si se dan en invierno,los árboles caducos por ejemplo no sufren daños ya que la actividad celular es muy baja.
-¿Cómo podemos proteger a nuestras plantas?
Si las plantas que pueden ser afectadas por estas heladas negras se encuentran en tiestos,la solución es fácil y es meterlas dentro de casa en un lugar luminoso,también las podemos poner en un porche,resguardadas del frío contra una pared.
Si lo que tenemos son plantas al aire libre en la tierra o árboles podemos hacer varias cosas para evitar daños fuertes:
-El primero,es proteger las raíces de la planta con una capa de hojarasca que impida al frío entrar al subsuelo,asi evitaremos que el agua que haya en los poros se congele. Esto vale sobretodo cuando hablamos de proteger a árboles o plantas que no están en reposo vegetativo.
-Otra cosa que podemos hacer es colocar un sistema que se encargue de rociar la planta con agua desde el momento en que la temperatura baja de 1ºC. Así,haremos que debido a las bajas temperaturas el agua se congele sobre hojas y ramas. Cuando se congela,el agua libera calor latente (80 calorías/gramo) que hace que las temperaturas que soporta la planta no sean tan bajas.Además,el hielo que se forma hace que los tejidos estén protegidos,no bajando en ellos las temperaturas de 0ºC.
-También es bueno no arar mucho la tierra en invierno,porque así la costa dura que se forma en la parte de arriba aisla al suelo del frío.
-Otro método consiste en colocar ventiladores,que se encarguen de mover el aire evitando una bajada muy fuerte de las temperaturas. Esto vale sobretodo para heladas de irradiación en las que el frío se acumula cerca del suelo,con temperaturas más altas según cogemos altura.
-Podemos también poner algún sistema que proporcione calor a las plantas durante la noche,como quemadores de petróleo.
-Y el método que más utilizamos es el de la protección con plásticos o sacos,pero que yo recomiendo se haga con un cubo de agua grande dentro de él.Y es que el agua,pierde y gana calor más despacio que el aire haciendo que el cambio térmico debajo del plástico sea menor. Además,cuando la temperatura del aire debajo del plástico llegue a la de rocío (el aire dentro del plástico es mucho más húmedo que fuera debido a la presencia del cubo con agua),el descenso térmico será muy suave,pues el agua al condensarse libera calor latente.

Estos días con la entrada de aire siberiano,veremos heladas negras en muchas zonas de España,asi que mucho ojo con vuestras plantas,sobretodo las que tengan hojas.Los árboles frutales no tendrán problema,salvo los cítricos claro.Any source

Lawmakers anticipate Quinn's State of the State address

By Jamey Dunn

With Gov Pat Quinn due to make his State of the State address Wednesday, Illinois legislators hope his speech will touch on a variety of issues.

Quinn is scheduled to give his speech before a joint session of the House and Senate at noon on Wednesday, and he says he plans to focus on economic development.

“The best way to be strong is to build and grow your economy. There’s no other way to have a better budget than to make sure that we have a dynamic economy that’s creating jobs for middle class hardworking people in Illinois. And that’s what I’m going to talk about tomorrow,” Quinn said today at a Chicago news conference. “Economic growth and jobs are our number one priority now, today, tomorrow and forever in Illinois. As long as I am governor, we’re always going to stress economic growth and jobs.”

Senate President John Cullerton said that while the state still faces problems, he is hoping for a speech that is not all doom and gloom. “I’d like to hear the governor talk about what great progress we’ve made in Illinois in the last year,” Cullerton said. “We really have a great state. We have had to face some really serious problems, like most states in the nation. We’ve passed a lot of reforms to our budget process. We’ve passed caps on our spending. Last year we passed a balanced budget. … We still have some real challenges to face. But the state is really a very positive business-climate state.”

Rep. Roger Eddy, a Hutsonville Republican, agrees with Quinn that economic development is a top priority. “I hope he relays the fact that Illinois needs to make this state’s climate attractive to business. The way out of the problem we face fiscally is to make Illinois attractive to businesses.”

What Eddy says he does not want to hear from Quinn is talk about “spending more money.”

“My hope would be that he continues to realize the difficult position we’re in, and he has some plans.” Eddy said he think Quinn needs to acknowledge the issues brought up in a recent report from the Civic Federation that says the state’s backlog of unpaid bills will total $35 billion within five years if not action is taken.

Cullerton said he would support a plan to borrow to pay down the state’s overdue bills, but only if it had bipartisan support. “We should finance those payments over time. Pay people off right away, not borrow money from our vendors but from our lenders,” Cullerton said. “That would help the economy. That would make people who do business with the state feel more comfortable in doing so.” Quinn has favored such a proposal in the past.

The Civic Federation report also highlights growing Medicaid and pension costs. Both are issues Quinn said he plans to talk about Wednesday. “There’s some very interesting ideas in there,” he said of the report, but he said the document “was a little light” on proposals for economic development.

While he plans to talk about some aspects of the budget, Quinn said: “Tomorrow is not the budget address. That’s three weeks from tomorrow.” He is scheduled to present his budget on March 22 Correction: February 22: “It’ll be, I think, a very provocative document. It will challenge the members of the General Assembly to show political courage to do important things that have to be done.”

Quinn told reporters he will propose some sort of tax relief in his address, but he would not give details on what the relief would be or what people or groups it might apply to. “The answer is yes, but you’ll have to wait till tomorrow.”

Eddy said that while such speeches are the time to lay out the broad strokes of policy changes, he hopes that Quinn does not make any drastic announcements that he later fails to follow up on. Eddy pointed to Quinn’s proposed elimination of the Regional Offices of Education in last year’s budget address. Quinn later used his veto pen to remove the funding for regional superintendents, and they went without pay for months. Quinn did not designate an entity to take up the duties of the Regional Offices of Education. The legislature, somewhat begrudgingly, passed a bill to pay the superintendents. Many lawmakers, including Eddy, were frustrated at cleaning up what they saw as a mess that Quinn created.

“Maybe the last year and his recognition of the fact that just saying it doesn’t make it so will be a good lesson for him,” said Eddy, who is a school superintendent in Hutsonville.

Rep. Lou Lang, a Democrat from Skokie, said he hopes Quinn will talk about the budget and the backlog of unpaid bills. “I think the governor will acknowledge that we have some serious budgetary issues and try to indicate that we’ll continue our program from last year of cutting where we can, balancing the budget, trying to find revenue without taxation and trying to pay of our bills. I think that’s our first and foremost responsibility, and I’m expecting to hear that tomorrow.”

Lang added: “We have to find revenue. I don’t think the governor will discuss, for instance, the gaming bill, but the negotiations continue on that.” Lang sponsored a bill to increase the number of casinos in the state and allow slot machines at horse racing tracks. The bill passed both legislative chambers, but Quinn publicly opposed it. Lawmakers never sent the legislation to Quinn, who said he planned to rewrite it if it landed on his desk. Interested parties have gone back to the drawing board to try and negotiate a new bill that lawmakers would approve and Quinn would sign.

Lang said that he hopes Quinn indicates a desire to work more actively with the legislature on crafting the budget. The budget process was largely driven by the House last year. “Moving forward together, we can’t fix all the problems we have in one year, but we can continue to make the progress that the people of our state deserve.”

For a look back at Quinn's first year as elected governor, see Illinois Issues January 2012. Any source

Zen and the Art of Trading

Came across this "lost" interview excerpt with an unnamed trader from Jack Schwager's New Market Wizards and I'd like to share it with you here. 

As Schwager explains in the intro to his "Zen and the Art of Trading" chapter, this wide-ranging, and rather philosophical, interview with a top trader had to be scrapped on fears it would alter the trader's image with his firm's corporate clients. 

Schwager asked this trader for permission to anonymously publish one interview excerpt, which he found particularly insightful. Here's a sample:  

"...I still don't understand your trading method. How could you make these huge sums of money by just watching the screen?

There was no system to it. It was nothing more than, "I think the market is going up, so I'm going to buy." "It's gone up enough, so I'm going to sell." It was completely impulsive. I didn't sit down and formulate any trading plan. I don't know where the intuition comes from, and there are times when it goes away.

How do you recognize when it goes away? 

When I'm wrong three times in a row, I call time out. Then I paper trade for a while.

For how long do you paper trade? 

Until I think I'm in sync with the market again. Every market has a rhythm, and our job as traders is to get in sync with that rhythm. I'm not really trading when I'm doing those trades. There's trading being done, but I'm not doing it.

What do you mean you're not doing it? 

There's buying and selling going on, but it's just going through me. It's like my personality and ego are not there. I don't even get a sense of satisfaction on these trades. It's absolutely that objective. Did you ever read Zen and the Art of Archery?..."

Let's note that the unnamed trader's view of zen in trading was partially informed by his reading of Herrigel's Zen in the Art of Archery. This leads me to the following thoughts & questions.

Some reviewers on Amazon have noted that Herrigel's understanding of zen and his tutelage in archery were rather muddled (for a variety of reasons). They went on to recommend reading Yamada Shoji's critique, "The Myth of Zen in the Art of Archery", along with Kyudo: The Essence and Practice of Japanese Archery for greater understanding of these topics. 

Kyudo Practice Japanese Archery book Onuma
Kyudo: The Essence and Practice of Japanese Archery

If Herrigel's pursuit of zen was fraught with misunderstanding, does this mean that some of the lessons drawn from his book are false? 

Was our mystery trader still able to connect with a Westerner's explanation of these topics, thereby fueling his own understanding? 

Can one really achieve a zen state of trading or being, and if so, did the unnamed trader somehow begin to approach this state, as described by his experience in the interview?

As a total (Western-born) outsider, I'll leave these questions open for you to ponder. 

Still, as this interview chapter is now 20 years old, I'd be interested to know more about the unnamed trader and the lessons he has learned in the intervening years. If nothing else, this brief and unique chapter of Schwager's book has certainly proven to be a catalyst for further reflection on the ideas of a "flow state" and trading/being. 

If you're enjoying these posts and would like to see more, please subscribe to our free RSS updates and follow Finance Trends in real-time on Twitter and StockTwits. You can also check out our related posts below for more market wisdom and trading insights.

Related articles and posts

1. What makes a great trader? Managing risk.

2. "Know Thyself" - Richard Russell on identity

3. Inner Voice of Trading: Lesson on ego and risk.Any source

Reversing MACD - Pro Real Time formula (now free again)

// Reversing MACD, Stocks & Commodities, January 2012, by Johnny Dough

// Variables: sl (days - slow), f (days - fast), t (signal - trigger)
// by default, s= 13, f = 6, t = 4
// tg = "target level"


// this is a reproduction of formulas avaible in Excel File with "translation" in Pro Real Time

// a = "alpha"
// a1 = 1 - alpha

//alpha _ fast
Af = 2/(1+f)
A1f = 1 - Af

// alpha_slow
Als = 2/(1+s)

Al1s = 1 - Als

//alpha_signal
Alt = 2/(1+t)
A1t = 1 - Alt

//EMAfast & EMAslow
// by default: the following customclose = close of the present bar
// [m, n] = period of investingation /calcolation of indicators
//
i = 0
Emafast = 0
Emaslow = 0
MACDSignal = 0
HistoMACD = 0
Emafast2 = 0
Emaslow2 = 0

for i = m to n do
    m2 = m-1
    EMAfast = Af * customclose[i] + A1f * EMAfast
    EMAslow = Als * customclose[i] + Al1s * EMAslow
    MACDA = Emafast - Emaslow
    MACDSignal = Alt * MACDA + A1t * MACDSignal
    HistoMACD = MACDA - MACDSignal + HistoMACD
    // calcolo PMACDeq, where Emafast (or slow) 2 is the previous Emafast (or slow)
    Emafast2=Af*customclose[m2] + A1f * EMAfast
    EMAslow2 = Als * customclose[m2] + Al1s * EMAslow
    PMACDeq = (Emafast2 * Af - Emaslow2 * Als)/(Af-Als)
    PMACDeqSignal = Alt*PMACDeq[i] + A1t * PMACDeq[m2]
    PMACDlevel = (tg + Emaslow2* Al1s - Emafast2*A1f)/(Af-Als)
    PMACDzero =(Emaslow2*Al1s-Emafast2*A1f)/(Af-Als)
    i = i+1
   
next



return PMACDeq  coloured(0, 0, 255) as "PMACDeq", PMACDeqSignal coloured(0, 255, 0) as "PMACDeqSignal" , PMACDzero  coloured(255, 0, 255) as "PMACDzero", PMACDlevel as "PMACDlevel"

// comments:
// only for medium range: on daily base, use to integrate other indicators only for monitoring the position of the investment
// appropried for intraday? ⇒ to evaluate
// valuate the cross of macd signals among them and prices

// valuate the cross of macd signals among them and prices


Click on image for enlarging them:






File: Reversing MACD on Excel  - click (free) here [reversing MACD with macro]
Any source

Previsión especial ola de frío siberiana desde el día 2 de febrero de 2012

Here were are!! Burian is here!!

Habemus siberiana a las puertas. Busquen sus mejores prendas, cancelen actos sociales a la intemperie, piensen si quieren practicar deportes en la montaña y no pasen muchos ratos en la calle.

El miércoles por la tarde nos va a empezar a entrar una masa de aire muy fría procedente del interior ruso que, tras recorrer buena parte de Europa, nos va a afectar a nosotros.



Meteograma para Benasque del modelos GFS de las 12Z


En el meteograma superior vemos como la línea de temperatura a 850hpa (unos 1450msnm según los geopotenciales que tendremos) se desploma pasando de poco menos que los 0ºC a caer hasta los -12ºC el jueves por la mañana. A partir de ese momento ligeras caídas y subidas que nos podrían llevar a un sábado extraoridinariamente gélido, con incluso menos de -15ºC a la altura citada. 

Hasta ahí hay bastante unanimidad en los modelos, acaba de salir en Europeo (ECMWF) con un par de ºC más que el GFS,pero con muchísimo frío. La salida de está invasión fría se alarga cada vez más, y ahora mismo podríamos estar hasta bien entrada la semana siguiente con isos (temperaturas a 850hpa-1450msnm) por debajo de -8ºC, que os aseguro que es mucho frío.

Como veis en la línaes inferior (precipitación) la entrada va a ser muy seca. La masa de aire que nos viene es de carácter continental y en todo su recorrido no encuentra fuentes de humedad. No va a haber precipitaciones.

Lo que si que va a ser destacable, al menos según marcan los modelos, va a ser el viento. Viento de N y NE moderado con rachas fuertes y días de intensidad destacable. 



Mapa de superficie y altura del modelo ECMWF 12Z para el viernes 3 de febrero de 2012


El mapa superior es muy ilustrativo: Borrasca en el Mediterráneo (entre Túnez, Cerdeña y la península italiana), altas presiones desde el interior de Rusia hasta Escandinavia, formando desde aquí el citado en la anterior entrada "Puente de Woejkoff" con el anticiclón de Azores que asciende hacia las islas Británicas. Entre ambos centros de acción (Puente de altas presiones y borrasca mediterránea) se canaliza el frío desde el interior de Rusia. 

La apretadas que están las isobaras hace que los vientos vayan a ser muy fuertes. Mucho cuidado con esto por que con temperaturas gélidas puede haber problemas, pero si les unimos vientos fuertes la sensación térmica va a ser muy fría. Os dejo una tabla de Wind-chill (sensación térmica) para que os hagáis una idea:



Tabla de sensación térmica


A la izquierda velocidad del viento en km/hr, arriba temperatura, en el interior de la tabla sensación que se tiene como resultado de combinar ambos factores. 

Por ejemplo, si alguien sube a cota 2000 y digamos que tiene -15ºC con un viento de 40km/h, estará experimentando una sensación térmica de unos -27ºC.

La previsión no cambia respecto a lo que dijimos en la entrada anterior. Es una entrada seca, sin precipitaciones, pero muy fría. Tanto el jueves, como viernes y sábado vamos a tener días soleados, ventosos, posiblemente con rachas fuertes algunos días, y muy fríos.

Parece que los primeros días de la semana que viene podrían seguir con ese mismo patrón meteorológico.

Por cierto, se me olvidaba, la Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMet) ya sacó ayer, como pusimos en twitter, un aviso por ola de frío que ha sido ratificado hoy, os dejo el link:

http://www.aemet.es/es/info_destacada/cnp/avisos/20120131_AE


Cuidaros, que esto no es de broma.


Lo seguimos en twitter: @meteobenás


saludos


-dani...-



Fuentes:
www.meteicel.fr
www.meteored.com
www.aemet.es
Any source