Fire Sweeps Through Attic of Hollywood's Magic Castle

HOLLYWOOD HILLS- The Los Angeles Fire Department responded to a reported "Structure Fire" at the historic Magic Castle today, leaving the 102 year-old mansion no choice but to postpone its planned week of Halloween festivities, which the private club had ironically dubbed "Inferno at the Castle."



At 12:35 pm on Monday, October 31, 2011, 120 Los Angeles Firefighters quickly descended upon the two-story, Victorian-style structure at 7001 West Franklin Avenue, for what was confirmed by first arriving resources as a "fire in the attic." Because of the building's compartmentalized construction and its complexity in design, the fire was able to conceal itself within the walls and attic of the Magic Castle. For a time, the fire seemed, almost, to prevent itself from being discovered and perhaps hoped to extend the theme of the magic club's week-long promotion, on its own.

Great lengths were taken to keep this Los Angeles area landmark and all of its historical content safe from extensive damage. Thanks to an aggressive fire-attack, coupled with strategic work on a very elaborate roof, Firefighters were able to fully-extinguish this pesky fire in just one hour and five minutes. Although its construction dates back to 1909, the mansion is now fully-sprinklered, which aided in the LAFD's ability to confine the fire to its area of origin.

The Magic Castle's management and its workers, preparing for the Halloween Night festivities, were the only occupants in the building at the time. All managed to exit the structure without incident and we are pleased to report, there were no injuries.

While the exact cause remains under active investigation, the fire was determined to be "accidental" in nature. Dollar loss and damage estimates were not yet available.

Click here to find updates from our friends at The Magic Castle, such as when they hope to reopen.

Dispatched Units:
E41 RA41 E27 T27 RA827 E82 E261 T61 EM14 BC18 BC5 E76 E10 E235 T35 T29 E229 E11 DC3 SQ21 EM2 BC11 RA27 E227 T3 E203 RA803 UR88 BC14 UR3 E15 E60 E278 T78 E226 T26 RA52 RA102 EM11 EA1 E3 RM2 RM3 AR2 SU1

Submitted by Matt Spence, Spokesman
Los Angeles Fire Department

Follow @LAFD and @LAFDtalk on Twitter and find us on Facebook

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Savez-vous nommer les vêtements en français? Quiz en images pour les débutants

Savez-vous nommer les vêtements en français? » online testing

Faites aussi les tests suivants:

Recherche personnalisée

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Police Shakeup

The head of the National Police, José Luis Muñoz Licona is out. Today the Secretary of Security, Pompeyo Bonilla, replaced him with José Ricardo Ramírez del Cid. There's no surprise here. Over the weekend, the four officers who are suspected of killing the two university students disappeared.

It came out over the weekend that the head of the Tegucigalpa Police, Jorge Alberto Barralaga Hernández, told them to take a few days off and report Sunday, releasing them from custody. Naturally, they disappeared. El Heraldo says they know that setting the police free was a "strategy" because they were innocent and the investigation had no physical evidence to tie them to the crime. When the four policemen failed to report Sunday, Barralaga Hernandez lost his job. Today the head of the National Police lost his job over the same issue.

In the meantime, four more policemen suspected of involvement in the killing were captured, and 300 FAL rifles and 300,000 cartridges for them disappeared from the Police Special forces (a.k.a. the Cobras) arms locker.

Bonilla also named a new Vice Minister of Security, Coralia Rivera, who previously was the Inspector General of the National Police.Any source

OAKLAND GENERAL STRIKE

Gorky to Stalin, 8 January 1930: "It is perfectly natural that many of the millions become very genuinely and furiously insane. They don't even realize the full depth of the turn-about that is occurring, but they feel instinctively, down to their bones, that the destruction of the deepest foundation of their centuries-old life is beginning. You can rebuild a destroyed church and set any god you like in it, but when the earth slips out from under your feet, that is irrevocable and forever.'"
 

 

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◉ 長編ドキュメンタリー映画「Life In A Day」がYouTubeで無料公開されている。

「Life In A Day」は地球のある一日、2010年7月24日をドキュメンタリー映画にするという歴史的な試みで作られた長編ドキュメンタリー映画。世界中のユーザーからその日に撮影、投稿された映像約8万本をもとに作られている。１時間34分。

世界中の人々のごく自然な日常をありのままに記録した映像をつなぎ合わせたにすぎないが、その中に潜んでいる無数のドラマに圧倒される。

サンダンス、ベルリン、SXSWの各映画祭でも上映され、日本では今年8月末から劇場でも公開されている。

監督は、ドキュメンタリー映画『ブラック・セプテンバー/五輪テロの真実』（1999）で米国アカデミー賞最優秀長編ドキュメンタリー賞を受賞したケヴィン・マクドナルド。

エグゼクティヴ・プロデューサーは、「ブレードランナー」「エイリアン」監督のリドリー・スコットと「トップガン」「アンストッパブル」監督のトニー・スコットの兄弟が担当。

『LIFE IN A DAY』のプロジェクトは、監督のケヴィン・マクドナルドの発想（以下、映画『LIFE IN A DAY 地球上のある一日の物語』公式サイトのPRODUCTION NOTESから引用）

・普通の人々の未知の部分や日々の生活の美しさをドキュメントする試み。

・全世界の人々に向けて、インターネットを使って行なうことができないかというもの。

・普通の人々が撮影した動画を送ってもらい、それらを通して、彼らが恐れているものや、愛しているものなどを見せてもらう。そうして集まった動画を1本の映画にまとめ上げることができれば、人類が歩んできた道や今立っているところはどんなところなのかを示したり、われわれの存在価値のようなものを明らかにすることができるのではないか、と考えた。

から、リドリー・スコットとトニー・スコットの映画製作会社スコット・フリーがプロダクションとなり、YouTubeがパートナーとなって、スタートしたもの。

映画『LIFE IN A DAY 地球上のある一日の物語』公式サイト：

http://www.liad2011.com/index.html

YouTube・LIFE IN A DAYチャンネル：http://www.youtube.com/user/lifeinaday

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Veto session CapitolView

The first week of veto session in the Illinois General Assembly wraps up with some unexpected movement on some of the issues facing the legislature. Gaming, the Smart Grid/ComEd rate hike and pensions are discussed.

Panel: Mike Lawrence, Charles Wheeler & Benjamin Yount. Moderated by Jamey Dunn (Illinois Issues Magazine)Any source

How to Enable Ping Response on Windows 7

I've decided to chronicle some of the common issues that users, developers, architects, and system administrators face. This article is the first in a series that will address some of the common complaints.

One common complaint for many home users is the inability to ping a new system with Windows 7 or Windows Server 2008 R2. This occurs on most systems and the network selection typically does not matter. I have set up a virtualized test Windows 7 system on my Hyper-V server and connected it to a network. To relax the initial security of the system, I even specified a "Home" network (out of Home, Work, Public, or Domain). The first thing to note is that this network is fairly locked down and even though I specified "Home" during the setup, Windows' inability to identify the network through network discovery leads it to select the "Public" network by default. Ping to this system times out with "request timed out."



This is a feature of the latest version of Windows Firewall. For whatever reason, Microsoft decided that a ping response (in the default set of rules) should be part of file and printer sharing. It is disabled by default  (as it should be) and a rule does not exist for Unidentified/Public networks:



To create the rule for allowing ping on a "Public" network, it is possible to use the "New Rule" wizard in "Windows Firewall with Advanced Security." This is accessed by navigating to start -> Control Panel -> Administrative Tools -> Windows Firewall with Advanced Security.



Rule Type: Select the type of firewall rule to create. Select Custom Rule:



Specify All Programs on the next step.

For Protocols and Ports, select ICMPv4 and customize the rule to allow ICMP Echo





Select the appropriate scope, for most users Any/Any will work.



Allow the connection and apply to all network profiles. After completing the wizard, the system should be able to receive a ping,



A couple of things should probably be said about security and enabling ping response. From a security perspective, enabling ICMP responses causes your system to be more visible on all networks. For home users who do not connect to public networks, the additional security risk is minimal. For users on public networks, this feature may allow malicious users to find your system more easily, but may not increase the risk of compromise significantly as long as other security best practices are followed.

Have an idea for something that you'd like to see explored? Leave a comment or send an e-mail to razorbackx_at_gmail<dot>com
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Fotos. Riera de Tossa després de 200 litres caiguts.

• Diumenge 23: 16 litres
• Dilluns 24: 107 litres
• Dimarts 25: 1 litre
• Dijous 27: 22 litres
• Divendres 28: 48 litres

TOTAL: 194 LITRES!!!

Fotos de Josep Colomer Tort.

Fotos de pròpies.

Fotos de Ramón González.

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Tintin a Hit

Congratulations to our client Moulinsart SA on the success of the movie version of its classic comic book series Tintin. We are pleased to have represented our client in negotiating an agreement with Dreamworks to produce this film.  

Steven Spielberg’s The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn, was the number one offshore hit with a gross of $55.8 million from 5,620 screens in 19 markets. The movie is in 3 D and comes from Oscar winning director Steven Spielberg and Oscar winning producer Peter Jackson.

The Adventures of Tintin  is a series of classic comic books created by the Belgian writer  Georges Rémi (1907–1983), who wrote under the name of Herge. Tintin is a young Belgian reporter who is  aided in his adventures by his faithful fox terrier dog Snowy.  The series is one of the most successful European comics of the 20th century, with translations published in more than 80 languages. More than 350 million copies of the books have been sold to date. Tintin’s popularity has grown ever since its  first appearance in 1929.

The  3D animated feature stars an international cast that includes Jamie Bell (Billy Elliot, Defiance), Andy Serkis (Lord of the Rings, King Kong), Daniel Craig (James Bond, Cowboys and Aliens), and comedy duo Nick Frost and Simon Pegg (Shaun of the Dead, Hot Fuzz). Sony  is co-distributing abroad with Paramount. According to the Hollywood Reporter the film was No. 1 in 17 of Tintin’s opening markets with France leading the way ($21.5 million collected over five days from 935 spots), which Sony described as “the biggest opening ever for an original, non-sequel film from Hollywood.”

Additional information and trailer at:Tintin

CONDUCTING AN AUDIT

Many filmmakers sign complex distribution agreements that they do not fully understand. Several years ago I was approached by a filmmaker who seemed certain that his distributor was cheating him. His film had been licensed to HBO for a large fee, and significant revenue was generated from foreign sales. Nevertheless, very little revenue was paid to the filmmaker. He asked me to investigate, and to arrange for an audit.

I reviewed the distribution contract and the distributor’s producer reports. The agreement allowed the distributor to deduct virtually any expense, with no caps or limitations. The distributor was therefore able to deduct several hundred thousand dollars in expenses. The contract permitted the distributor to take 35% of gross receipts as a distribution fee. The balance remaining was split 50/50 with the filmmaker. This formula allowed the distributor to retain almost all the revenue without resorting to cheating or creative accounting. It was a terrible deal for the filmmaker. I asked him why he had agreed to these terms. He replied that the distribu­tor told him the terms offered were “standard.”

Of course, these terms are not standard, and a savvy filmmaker would never accept them. A distributor is usually allowed to recoup specified market and promotional expenses only, and the total amount of recoupable expenses may be capped. The distribution fee charged was excessive, and for the distributor to also share in the balance remaining on a film it did not provide any financing for is just outrageous. I told the filmmaker not to bother with an audit since it was unlikely it would make any difference. This was not creative accounting; it was an instance of a gullible filmmaker being taken advantage of by a more experienced distributor.

While creative accounting complaints are common, many films are not profitable by any measure, so the profit particip­ant will not bother to audit the books. For those films that do generate significant revenue, audits often recover more than their cost, which may be $20,000 to $30,000 or more.

An audit may reveal two types of errors. The first type are clerical mistakes. A studio accountant might make a mathematical error when adding numbers. For some mysterious reason, these errors usually favor the studio. When such errors are discovered, distributors usually make corrections without much protest.

The other type of error arises from contract interpretation. The philosophy prevalent at many studios is, “When in doubt, interpret it in our favor and we will fight it out later if someone objects.” Despite the great care taken by lawyers to draft straightforward contracts, new areas of ambiguity constantly arise. As a result, contracts have become increasingly detailed and long. Every time a lawyer thinks that his client has been taken advantage of, he tries to clarify matters in the next deal by being even more explicit. This is why signing a short-form contract may not be wise. A deal memo addresses the major issues without spelling out the details. The resulting ambiguity often does not favor the filmmaker because in a dispute the distributor can better afford the legal expense of contesting the point.

Excerpt taken from Mark Litwak’s Risky Business, 2^nd edition, 2009.

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◉ 思い出を交換する無料のiPhoneアプリ「ちょっと見てきて」を使ってみた。

Niftyのデイリーポータル Zの人気コーナー「ちょっと見てきて」をiPhoneアプリにしたもの。

「ちょっと見てきて」は、気になる場所があるが遠くてなかなか見にいけない人などが、その場所の近くに住んでいる人に見てきてもらって様子を教えてもらう、という趣旨のコーナー。

○ 昔住んでいた場所、学生時代に過ごした街、思い出深いお店など、気になる場所が今どうなっているか見てきて欲しい人が、その場所を投稿する【見てきて投稿】

○ その投稿を見た思い出の場所近くの人や、たまたまそこへ訪れる機会のある人が、見てきてその場所の近況を投稿する【見てきた投稿】

○ 見てきて欲しい人は、大喜び。見てきた人も誰かの役に立てていい気分。

というもので、寒い冬に向けて、ちょっと心が暖まる善意のミニ交流ができる。懐かしくてホロリという気持ちが文章から伝わってきてこちらまで思わずホロリということも。

「ちょっと見てきて」コーナーは、2007年11月から開始されているので、すでに6000件以上の【見てきて投稿】と、1万3000件以上の【見てきた投稿】があるらしい。

使い方は簡単

Googleマップで構成されているので、基本はGoogleマップの使い方と同じ。

【見てきて投稿】をする場合は、画面右上の矢印をタップして、表示される「お願い！見てきて！投稿」をタップ。ピンがドロップされるので、ピンをドラッグして位置を調整し、ピンから出ている「お願い！見てきて！」バーの右側矢印をタップして、お願いのタイトルと本文を入力して「登録」ボタンをタップ。

【見てきた投稿】をする場合は、マップ上の黄色いアイコンをタップして、お願いのタイトルバーを出し、右から矢印から。

ちなみに、長い間なかなか【見てきた投稿】が付かない場所は、「なかなか」アイコンになるらしい。黄色が薄くなり、よぼよぼした感じでちょっと哀れさが漂う。

使用条件: 

iPhone 3GS、iPhone 4、iPhone 4S、iPod touch（第3世代）、iPod touch (第4世代)、およびiPad に対応。 iOS 5.0 以降が必要。無料。

iTunes App Store「ちょっと見てきて」：

http://itunes.apple.com/jp/app/id473633563?mt=8

デイリーポータル Z webサイト：http://portal.nifty.com/

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Here’s to the Crazy Ones

Hat Tip Wales Home

This is inspiring and makes you wonder where are Wales’s Crazy Ones because we wont move forward without them.

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Corruption: The Verdict on the Lobo Sosa Government

Honduras is going the wrong way, or so say 80 percent of respondents to a CID-Gallup poll conducted October 14-18, 2011. The poll reports the results of 1238 interviews, with a margin of error of 2.8 percent.

Terra, an Argentinian news source, reports that 52 percent of Hondurans think that the government of Porfirio Lobo Sosa is the most corrupt in Honduran history. Only former President Carlos Roberto Reina had a more negative public opinion during his time in office.

The people surveyed identified violence and crime as the most serious problem (79%), with the same number reporting that crime had increased in the last four months. A majority believe that the current situation is worse than it was last year. One in three reported that they, or someone in their home, had been a victim of assault or robbery in the last four months.

The cost of living and unemployment was the next most serious problem, cited by 63% of those polled.

The poll shows that Porfirio Lobo Sosa has become terrifically unpopular in Honduras, with 63% saying he never, or almost never does what is best for the people of Honduras.

Quite a record to have built up in less than two years.Any source

Greek Crisis Will Require €500 Billion ($700) in 2010-2020 – And it Won’t Be Enough

Author: Dan Steinbock  ·  October 26th, 2011

Brussels has failed to contain the Greek debt crisis, which is deteriorating rapidly. The first two bailout rounds, which amount to EUR 220 billion ($305 billion), will not suffice. In the next decade, Greece will require more than EUR 250 billion ($350 billion).

In the past two years, Greece has witnessed many demonstrations. But during the past week, the scale and militancy has reached a new level. In downtown Athens, the Parliament building on Syntagma Square was circled massively by the All Workers Militant Front, which is affiliated with the Greek Communist Party.

The strike was timed to coincide with a vote on yet more austerity and union-busting measures aimed at appeasing demands from the “Troika” – the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) – which threatened not to release the latest $11 billion ($15 billion) installment of the second-round bailout package if the measures were not passed.

The two-day general strike paralyzed Greece as violent attacks by police and anarchists caused injuries, arrests and one death.

Despite the fire and the smoke, the Greek Parliament did approve the austerity measures that fueled the protests. The measures will sharply cut public and private pay (even up to 50%) and pensions, force the privatization of public enterprises, and undermine collective bargaining agreements in the interests of labor flexibility.

These measures come on top of already painful, previously enacted austerity and privatization measures.

So is this, finally, the end of the Greek debt crisis? The simple answer is no; not even close. In effect, if the Troika sticks to its current policy approach, the Greek nightmare may escalate.

In 10 years, Greece will need another EUR 250 billion

In May 2010, the eurozone supported Greece with EUR 110 billion; now Athens hopes to stay afloat with another bailout round of EUR 109 billion. But neither will suffice.

For two years, I, along with others, have spoken for debt restructuring in Greece.

For two years, the European Central Bank (ECB) and most euro leaders shunned all talk about Greek debt restructuring. When the idea has been presented to ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet, he has simply walked out.

And yet, recently the euro leaders did conclude that Greece probably needs a 21% debt reduction. By now, the consensus figure is close to 50% (and the right figure probably 60%-75%).

In return for the eurozone support, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou and Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos have struggled to implement painful, yet necessary structural reforms.

For all practical purposes, the Greek government is trying to achieve in two to three years the kind of privatization that normally requires a decade. But the government is losing ground, time is running out and social turmoil is deepening.

Neither the first nor the second bailout rounds – altogether some EUR 220 billion ($305 billion) – will contain the Greek debt crisis.

In the next decade, Greece will need at least another EUR 250 billion ($350 billion) or more. With current measures, it will not have access to capital markets until the early 2020s.  And that’s the benign scenario.

Worse ahead

In the past two weeks or so, the Troika has finally realized that all previous assumptions used for the Greek debt sustainability analysis have been wishful fantasies.

What is now certain is that, after a 5.5% contraction in the ongoing year, the Greek recovery will be substantially slower than anticipated. Second, privatization proceeds will be significantly lower than expected, from 1.5% of GDP in 2012 to 2-2.5% in the next few years. Third, Greek access to market financing is unlikely to be restored until in 2021.

In the coming years, Greece’s debt as of GDP will continue to climb and peak at 190% of GDP in 2013. Unfortunately, the debt dynamics is more likely to deteriorate than to recover.

If primary balances prove lower than expected, or if there are shortfalls with privatization receipts, or permanent growth and interest rates shocks, the Greek debt burden will be unsustainable.

Most importantly, Greece is not the only euro economy close to insolvency.

EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor » Greek Crisis Will Require €500 Billion ($700) in 2010-2020 – And it Won’t Be Enough

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The two halves of the eurozone are locked in a broken marriage

 

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International business editor

7:15PM GMT 30 Oct 2011

One by one, the democracies of Southern Europe are being broken on the wheel of monetary union.

Yes, Greece has gained debt relief: €100bn (£87bn) if pension funds "volunteer" to join banks in accepting a 50pc haircut. This will leave Greece with a public debt of 120pc of GDP in 2020 after nine years of depression, if all goes perfectly.

Greek ministers are now cruelly depicted in cartoons knuckling to German orders or delivering the Nazi salute. The yearly march commemorating the struggle against the Axis was blocked in Thessaloniki by protesters shouting "traitor" at Greece's aging president, himself a teenage resister.

I do not wish to be anti-German, since Germany itself is the chief diplomatic victim of EMU's unfolding tragedy. But this is what happens when you insert words such as "monitoring capacity on the ground" into EU summit texts.

Europe's inspectors are to establish an occupation office in Athens to ensure "full implementation" of austerity policies. Greece has been stripped even of the pretence of sovereignty, reduced to a Sanjak again.

Yes, Greece has gained debt relief: €100bn (£87bn) if pension funds "volunteer" to join banks in accepting a 50pc haircut. This will leave Greece with a public debt of 120pc of GDP in 2020 after nine years of depression, if all goes perfectly.

In Spain, unemployment is just shy of five million, or 21.5pc. There are 1.4m households where no family member has a job.

 

Related Articles

• Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Portugal enters 'Grecian vortex' 27 Oct 2011

• Europe's grand gamble risks failure without ECB 26 Oct 2011

• EU rescue plans hostage to raw politics 25 Oct 2011

• World power swings back to America 23 Oct 2011

• S&P sees downgrade blitz in EMU recession 20 Oct 2011

• Franco-German deadlock over ECB’s role in rescue fund 19 Oct 2011

Related Links

• More expats cancelling plans to return to Britain 24 Oct 2011(Telegraph Finance)
• Why the latest eurozone bail-out is destined to fail within weeks 29 Oct 2011(Telegraph Finance)
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The latest job losses have been in health care and schools, a foretaste of what will happen once the EU-imposed guillotine drops after this month's elections.

It is an unhappy starting point for an economy tipping back into recession. "We can't go on like this. It is impossible to get out this crisis with austerity alone," said Socialist leader Alfredo Rubalcaba, calling on Europe's Left to force a change in EU policy.

Meanwhile, Germany's jobless rate has fallen steadily to 6pc, and there lies the rub. EMU convergence never happened. What exists instead is a 30pc or 40pc North-South currency misalignment, the cause of all the grief.

The two halves are locked together in a broken marriage. The structural gap cannot be closed by debt-deflation in the South. It could arguably be mitigated by ECB reflation, yet the central bank has done the opposite, blighting the chances that Spain might just be able to struggle back to viability.

Spain is cutting stoically. The ECB did not have to have make matters worse by tightening monetary policy as well. It chose to do so, knowing that core inflation is tame and that Europe's banks are about to shrink their balance sheets drastically.

Portugal is already under EU-IMF administration, or "a state of occupation" in the words of Labour leader Carvalho da Silva. The unions have called a general strike this month.

This honourable nation, which pays its debts, has seen its external capital accounts swing from surplus to a deficit of 104pc of GDP under the perverse effects of EMU. The current account deficit is 8pc of GDP.

What Portugal needs is a 40pc devaluation against Germany. Instead, premier Pedro Passos Coelho is attempting an "internal devalution", with swingeing cuts to pay, pensions, welfare, and health. You cannot deflate an economy back to viability where total debt is 350pc of GDP. It is mathematical suicide.

Italy in turn has been told to balance its budget by 2013, even though it has a primary surplus and one of the lower debt levels (public and private) in the OECD club. This risks pushing Italy into a slump that sets off the destructive debt dynamic so widely feared.

It misdiagnoses the problem. Italy is in crisis because it cannot compete. It is in the wrong currency.

The EU refuses to confront the core issue, instead seeking to buy time for the South by conjuring a €1.2 trillion bail-out fund (EFSF) that seeks uber-leverage through "first loss" insurance of bonds.

This concentrates risk for creditors. It further endangers France's AAA rating, the foundation of the fund. It almost guarantees faster contagion to euroland's core. Europe has resorted to this twisted device because Germany has vetoed all moves to fiscal union, Eurobonds, debt-pooling, or ECB activism. It is a Hail Mary pass, a last gamble when all else fails.

Chancellor Angela Merkel warns that euro failure threatens a thousand plagues. "No one should think that another half-century of peace and prosperity is assured."

She has the matter backwards. The euro itself has become an engine of destruction and cross-border rancour. Europe will not be happy again until this misguided experiment is shut down.

The two halves of the eurozone are locked in a broken marriage - Telegraph

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Region's Economy Could Stall Unless Other Industries Start to Hire

High-tech job growth has sparked the Bay Area's rebound from the recession, but experts warn that the region's economy could stall unless other industries start to hire.

Over the first nine months of 2011, the technology industry added 26,200 workers, 65 percent of all the jobs created in the Bay Area, this newspaper's analysis of data compiled by state officials and Beacon Economics shows. High-tech jobs account for 18 percent of the Bay Area's workforce.

"If the Bay Area jobs recovery doesn't broaden, it is in danger of fizzling out completely," said Scott Anderson, senior economist with Wells Fargo Bank.

The key, according to a number of economists, would be a recovery in the long-troubled housing industry.

"We need a normal housing market," said Jeffrey Michael, director of the Business Forecasting Center at University of the Pacific in Stockton. "We have to have a construction industry that has a pulse."

Much in the way the financial industry bolsters New York City's economy, real estate is an economic bulwark for the Bay Area. Real estate and high-tech produce strong ripple effects throughout the economy, creating many jobs in many industries.

"Technology workers are more likely to buy a home, make home improvements or go to the spa," said Jon Haveman, chief economist with the Bay Area Council's Economic Institute. "They will dine out more often. They spend more at the mall."

Much the same is true with the housing industry. Rising demand spurs construction of new homes and apartments. Newly purchased houses are filled with furniture, often new. Backyards receive upgrades, with the help of frequent trips to the hardware store or garden supply shop. Mortgage providers hire loan agents. Commissions for real estate agents swell. Those virtuous cycles vanished when the housing bubble popped.

The employment gains in the Bay Area housing sector during the peak year of 2005, compared with now, illustrate the problem. In the first nine months of 2011, Bay Area construction companies added 3,200 jobs. Over the first nine months of 2005, construction gained 4,700 jobs. The difference is akin to a Solyndra solar plant. The contrast is even starker in the finance, insurance and real estate sectors, which have numerous jobs linked to housing. In the first nine months of 2011, Bay Area financial businesses shed 1,500 jobs. During the same nine months of 2005, financial companies added 3,100 jobs. That 4,600-job swing equates to a NUMMI factory.

"We don't need construction to go all the way back to the 2005 levels," Michael said. "But it has to get off the floor, to improve from these abnormally low levels."

For now, the thousands of new jobs in construction are a welcome sign.

"Things are looking a little better," Brent Judd, a project supervisor for Tilton Pacific, said of local construction activity. "It's not dramatic. But things have stabilized."

Tilton Pacific is the general contractor for a new shopping center in Pleasanton that will be anchored by a big Safeway store. Joining construction in the upswing are transportation and warehousing, which gained 9,500 jobs, and retail, which added 2,300 jobs. Even the battered manufacturing sector rose by 3,900 jobs.

"We are hiring people all the time," said Nathan Tyson, an engineer at Chevron's refinery in Richmond.

He started a few years ago as a tank turnaround engineer for the Richmond refinery. He now works as a design engineer at the plant.

The improvement in retail is significant because it reflects a stronger job market in other sectors. If residents are working, they are more likely to shop. New entrants into the supermarket sector, coupled with Safeway's store expansions and revamps, also may have spurred some hiring.

Fresh & Easy and Sprouts Farmers Markets have been opening new stores. REI opened a new store in Dublin. Auto dealers have been growing. Whole Foods and Sunflower Farmers Markets have announced, or recently opened, new stores in the Bay Area.

Safeway held a jobs fair recently for its new Pleasanton store. The supermarket estimated that 600 people showed up in person and 1,000 applied online.

"We ended up hiring 240 employees," said Susan Houghton, a spokeswoman for Safeway.

Despite the hopeful signs, weaknesses persist in the Bay Area -- meaning it will take years to fully recover. Arts and entertainment, hotels and dining and beverage establishments, along with government, have shed jobs lately.

"It's going to take a certain amount of time to bleed off the excess debt in the economy because of the credit and housing bubbles," said Michael Yoshikami, chief investment officer with Walnut Creek-based YCMNet. "We won't see a meaningful jobs rebound for a few years."

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Previsión semana 31 de Octubre - 3 de Noviembre de 2.011

Buenas...

Iniciamos otra semana que promete volver a dejarnos lluvias generosas y bien repartidas en la mayor parte de la Península. Tras las caídas los pasados días, y después de la calma que hemos tenido hoy y la que vamos a tener mañana, todo parece indicar que vamos a volver a tener movimiento, sobre todo la segunda mitad de la semana.

Estos días han traído lo que se preveía: un viernes y sábado grises pero con poca agua, una clara mejoría hoy que continuará mañana... y una transición para nuevas lluvias. 

Las temperaturas han estado muy contenidas por la ausencia del sol, hoy, con un día despejado, las máximas se han disparado, pero ojo, que la noche puede ser bien fresca. 

Entre ayer y hoy las máximas han subido entorno a 5ºC en todas las estaciones que solemos seguir. Eriste ha pasado de 13 a 18ºC, Ampriu de 9 a 14ºC, Laspaules de 10 a 15ºC y Campo de 15 a casi 19ºC.

Las mínimas bastante contenidas por la abundancia de nubes, entorno a 5-6ºC en Eriste, 5ºC en Ampriu, unos 6ºC en Laspaules y entorno a 7-8ºC en Campo. 

Poca lluvia. Como observación de campo decir que, pese a las cantidades cuantiosas recogidas los últimos días, el monte no rebosa agua ni mucho menos. Da la impresión de que sigue haciendo falta más para intentar recuperar la sequedad que tenemos. La semana nos va a ayudar en esto, aunque la corta otoñada de este año, o la ausencia de setas, ya no las vamos a recuperar.

La situación de los próximos días va a venir marcada por la formación de una vaguada planetaría al NW de la Península que va a tener asociada una activa borrasca que de cara al miércoles, sobre todo por la tarde, y el jueves, va a enviar un potente frente que barrera toda la península dejando cantidades que, a falta de confirmar, pueden ser muy importantes en la cara sur de los Pirineos (y cuantiosas en muchas zonas de España). Pasado ese frente quedará inestabilidad post-frontal a la espera de que una nueva baja se acerque a la Península de cara al fin de semana y nos deje otra previsible buena regada.

La situación sinóptica para el miércoles (mapa de ayer) muestra una baja bastante profunda, alargada de norte a sur, desde el NW de Irlanda hasta el W de Francia, entrada de vientos de norte en la parte posterior y sures sobre nuestra zona. La forma marcada en "v" de la vaguada indica su mayor actividad. El frente ha de ser muy potente (día para mirar el satélite). Resalta también el bloqueo anticiclónico en Europa del Este, mantenido más adelante y que frena el avance de las bajas quedándose cerca nuestro.

Los mapas de Jet Stream y corrientes en altura nos ponen de pleno en el camino de zonas dinámicas e inestables, tanto el jueves-viernes como de cara al fin de semana que viene.

Con estos ingredientes la previsión no puede estar más que animada:

Lunes: Día, en general, soleado. Algunas nubes por la tarde. Temperaturas sin cambios relevantes. Vientos flojos.

Martes: Día más gris, pero con algunos ratos de sol. Precipitaciones débiles irregulares. Temperaturas bajando por la mayor nubosidad. Viento flojo de sur.

Miércoles: Parece que la mañana podría seguir la tónica del día anterior, pero avanzada la tarde quedará totalmente cubierto generalizándose las precipitaciones que podrían ser intensas. Ahora mismo no hay alertas de Aemet pero es casi seguro que para ese día se activarán por precipitaciones. Temperaturas un poco más altas. Vientos de sur moderados.

Jueves: Día muy inestable. Las precipitaciones pueden ser intensas y continuadas. Quizás remitan algo a última hora del día. Temperaturas más o menos igual. Vientos de sur moderados.

Las cotas de nieve altas, quizás bajando a unos 2.200msnm tras el paso del frente, con poca preci ya.

Parece que el viernes podría ser un día de tregua a la espera de nuevos frentes el finde, en principio no tan activo como se prevé el del miércoles-jueves.

Resumiendo:

Lunes: Día soleado.

Martes: Variable, precis débieles.

Miércoles: Gris, lluvias más intensas a partir de media tarde.

Jueves: Gris, lluvias hasta bien entrada la tarde.

Los seguimos todo al momento en: @meteobenas

Saludos

-dani...-

Fuentes:

www.meteored.com

www.meteociel.fr

www.wetterzentrale.de

www.aemet.es

www.chebro.es

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TREKKING DEL LANGTANG DIA 2. De Lama Hotel a Kyajin Gompa, 1 oct

Vista hacia el Kangla Himal, con montañas de 5.800m de altura, vistas desde Kyagin Gompa

TREKKING DEL LANGTANG DIA 2

De Lama Hotel a Kyagin Gompa

1 octubre 20011

Blanca de las nieves y Jorge García-Dihinx

En nuestro segundo día del trekking del Langtang también queremos hacer dos etapas en una misma jornada, subiendo desde Lama Hotel (2.470m) a Kyajin Gompa (3.870m). Tenemos que ir ganando días para poder luego enlazar al trekking de Gosaikund y poder volver con algún día de margen a Kathmandú antes de nuestro vuelo de regreso a España.

La primera etapa sube a Langtang (3.430m) en unas 4-5h, según la guía. Desde allí sólo quedan 2-3 h para llegar a Kyajin Gompa (3.870m). Debido al mal de altura que algunos senderistas sufren al subir esos cerca de 1.500m en un día, la guía aconseja quedarse en Langtang y hacer una corta etapa al día siguiente. Pero no haremos caso. Somos traviesos.

Repetimos la jugada del día anterior y salimos al alba (5:40h) sin esperar a los desayunos, para ganar horas de luz al día. El comienzo del día es duro psicológicamente. El día ha vuelto a amanecer cubierto y nos vuelve a amenazar la lluvia de este monzón que no termina de irse.

Pero estamos ya en Octubre! No?

"Octubre, ya has oído, señor monzón: Hora de largarse".

Salimos entre la vegetación de este valle, sin apenas luz y de nuevo en ese bosque tan verde pero tan cerrado, con una senda repleta de subes y bajas que nos bajan algo la moral. Nos preguntamos: ¿Se abrirá el día? ¿Se abrirá el valle por fin?

Algo más de 1 horas tras la salida paramos a desayunar unos deliciosos chapatis con miel y té nepalí, en Gummachowk. Reanudamos la marcha y pasamos por Ghora Tabela (2.970m), donde una chica que habla un inglés perfecto de la muerte nos recomienda la casa de su cuñado en Langtang para parar a comer el lunch. Se trata del Pilgrim Guest House (qué acierto, veríamos luego). Por fin el valle se abre y salimos de la oscuridad. También parece que se va abriendo el cielo y nos animamos más.

Llegamos a Langtang sobre las 10:30h, con un hambre feroz. El sol empieza a lucir. Bieen! Paramos, aunque parece pronto para el lunch, a comer en el Pilgrim. Mientras nos preparan unas deliciosas tortillas con patatas, nos tomamos varios tés y nos seguimos leyendo, en voz alta el uno al otro, el interesantísimo libro de Anatoli Bukreev que nos hemos traído: "Everest 1996" (en inglés, "The Climb").

Salimos bien saciados, a recorrer las 2-3 h que nos separan de Kyajim Gompa. El paisaje se abre. El bosque da paso al matorral bajo y divisamos al fondo, entre las nubes, montañas con nieve en sus laderas. Qué diferencia de paisaje en sólo unas horas... yendo a pie!

Por fin llegamos a Kyajim Gompa (3.870m). En las últimas rampas se notaba la altura y el cansancio de subir a casi 4.000m. Desde un lomo al que llegamos sin ver nada, se divisa por fin toda la aldea, asentada sobre una gran llanura glaciar. Son casas y paisajes similares a los de Namche Bazaar en el trekking del Everest. Luce el sol y de momento no hace frío. Nos encanta este lugar! Nos ha costado, desde esta mañana, unas 8 horas en total.

Vemos cómo aparecen dos mujeres que van andando decididamente hacia nosotros. Nos quieren enganchar y llevarnos a su "hotel" antes de otros hagan lo mismo y así asegurar dos clientes más en este principio de temporada de trekking que todavía apenas hay gente (clientes).

No recuerdo el nombre del lodge o hotel, pero sí recuerdo el salón acristalado que tenían, donde entraba la luz a raudales y se estaba calentito, leyendo, descansando, de maravilla.

Aprovecho para darme una vuelta por el pueblo y fotografiar las casas y las montañas nevadas que nos rodean. Las cimas están cargadas de las nevadas del final del monzón. Sus caras norte verticales muestran esas canales de nieve triangulares o romboidales que desafían a la gravedad, tan típicas de Bolivia y Perú (Alpamayo, Siula Grande). Las nubes no nos dejan ver todo el valle pero el verse asomar estas montañas nevadas nos impresiona. Qué magnífico lugar.

Al caer el sol, también lo hace la temperatura y volvemos a hacer uso de nuestros nuevos Primalofts.

Va a ser nuestra primera noche en altura. Blanca se encuentra perfectamente, como ya le ocurrió en el Mont Blanc, sin ningún problema. Yo tengo un leve dolor de cabeza, que remedio con un ibuprofeno y, de paso, me tomo 1 comp de Edemox (diurético) para facilitar la aclimatación. Esa tarde me la paso meando cada dos por tres, pero me encuentro muy bien. Cenamos con un grupo de 4 australianos jubilados que llevan 3 meses viajando por el mundo y luego leemos un rato más antes de irnos a dormir. Esta va a ser nuestra primera noche en altura. Y sólo llevamos 2 días de trekking! Qué rápido pasa todo! Y sin, embargo, qué lejano parece nuestro viaje en bus a Dunche, que fue hace sólo 2 días...

La noche la pasamos perfectamente y dormimos como benditos. Ni mal de altura ni frío ni na. Pero qué buenos sacos tenemos! Y qué ligeros son!

Mañana haremos una excursión a la base del glaciar y, tras volver al hostal a tomar el lunch, iniciaremos el descenso de nuevo a Langtang. Querríamos habernos quedado quizás 1 ó 2 días más por aquí, pero no estamos seguros de los días que nos va a costar  la vuelta a Kathmandu por el trekking de Gosaikund y necesitamos algún día de margen para no apurar.

Nos vamos a dormir.

Continuará.

 Mapa de recorrido del día (Escala 1:125.000)

 Salimos sin apenas luz, en el bosque húmedo del Valle de Langtang

 La humedad es tal, que los helechos nacen de las ramas de los árboles

 El valle se va abriendo y salimos por fin del bosque

 Cruzamos nuevos puentes colgantes. Al fondo de advina Langtang, dondes tomaremos el lunch

 El trekking se separa aquí del río Lantang Khola

 Por fin llegamos a Kyajim Gompa! Nos encanta este lugar... pues luce el sol!

 Desde el pueblo vemos los cimcomiles aparecer tras las nubes

El salón de estar, acristalado, era ideal para leer y descansar al solecito.

Blanca de las nieves y los 4 australianos jubilados, tan simpáticos

 Paredes norte nevadas delante nuestro

Canales triangulares de nieve que desafían a la gravedad

 Banderines de oración

 Vista hacia el pueblo, desde el norte

 A esta altura (3.870m) ya toca abrigarse, hasta la cabeza

Quizás sea esta el pico Pnggen Dopku, de 5.928m 

 Impresionantes paredes norte del Kangjla Himal

Esta niña nos miraba en la puerta de la cocina, poco antes de cenar

Continuará...

El resto de las fotos de este breve álbum las podéis ver pinchando aquí

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