Ukraine Vows to Curb Reserves Plunge as IMF Repeats Loan Demands - Bloomberg

Ukraine Vows to Curb Reserves Plunge as IMF Repeats Loan Demands - Bloomberg:

"Ukraine pledged to stem declines in its foreign reserves next year as the International Monetary Fund said it wouldn’t ease conditions for a new loan amid a third recession since 2008.
Borrowing will match or exceed the planned $7.1 billion of foreign-denominated debt repayments, Halyna Pakhachuk, head of the Finance Ministry’s department debt, said today at a Fitch Ratings conference in the capital, Kiev. If markets improve, Ukraine may sell $1 billion to $2 billion of Eurobonds in 2014 and may borrow as much as $1 billion from China, she said.
“It’s difficult for Ukraine to tap international markets now as yields exceed 10 percent, while we can borrow at no more than 9 percent,” Pakhachuk said. “That’s why we’re looking for other sources of financing.”"

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31/10/2013: IBF data on Mortgages Approvals: September 2013

Having just covered data on Residential Property Prices here (http://www.fergco.co/2013/10/31102013-irish-residential-property.html), time to also update the data from the IBF on Irish mortgages approvals.

Excluding mortgages top-ups, lending for house purchases improved in September, with total of 1,544 new mortgages approved, up 10.4% y/y. Cumulative 3mo issuance of mortgages is now up 11.5% on previous quarter and 13.4% up y/y.

Average mortgage approved, however, stood at EUR174,302 in September, down 4.78% y/y. 3mo average mortgage approved was down 0.12% on previous quarter and down 3.69% y/y.

Year-to-date (Q1-Q3) cumulative number of mortgages approved rose 7.5% y/y while average mortgage approved by value fell 2.49%.

As the result of the above, total value of mortgages approved stood at EUR269 million in September, up 5.08% y/y. Q1-Q3 volume of mortgages approved rose 5.12% y on same period 2012.

So overall, reasonable gains, but off extremely low levels.

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憲政慣例

憲政慣例圍在不修改憲法的前提，憲政機關之間透過默契以政治行動實質上變更憲法的內涵，而使憲法配合社會脈絡的演進而有所調適。

憲政慣例之要件：(大法官釋字第419號)

1.      反覆發生之慣行

2.      經歷長久時間仍受遵循

3.      被確信具有拘束行為之效力

4.      不曾出現相反之先例

1~3為正面要件，4為反面要件

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MIDEAST STOCKS-Qatari shares at 6-week high, outperform regional gains | Reuters

MIDEAST STOCKS-Qatari shares at 6-week high, outperform regional gains | Reuters:

"Qatar's shares outperformed regional markets on Thursday, rising to a six-week high as bargain hunters returned to the overlooked market, while other bourses also edged higher.

Doha's index climbed 0.8 percent to its highest level since Sept. 19. The market has been trapped in a sideways range in recent weeks due to earnings that disappointed investors.

Large-caps Qatar National Bank and Industries Qatar were the main support, rising 2.1 and 1.9 percent respectively. Earlier this month, QNB posted a 14.3 percent rise in quarterly earnings which missed estimates, while IQ reported a six percent drop in nine-month profit.

UAE markets meanwhile, struggled to make gains ahead of a long weekend. Dubai's index added 0.2 percent, trading in a tight range since hitting a five-year peak earlier this week."

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31/10/2013: Irish Residential Property Prices: September 2013

Updating the Residential Property Price Index data from CSO released earlier this week, here are the core highlights for September 2013:

• All country RPPI rose to 68.2 in September from 67 in August, marking sixth consecutive month of rises The index is now up 3.65% y/y (in August it was up 2.76% y/y).
• 3mo cumulated change in RPPI is 3.96% and 6mo cumulated change is 6.4%. 6mo average rise is 0.66%.
• Nama valuations (with 10% cushion on LTEV uplift and risk sharing) are now 33.97% off the mark.
• Relative to peak, index now stands at -47.74% and relative to absolute minimum it is at +6.4%.

For Houses RPPI:

• Index rose to 71.0 in September from 69.8 in August and posted a 3.35% rise y/y.
• 3mo cumulated gains are at 4.11% and 6mo cumulated gains are at 6.29%. Average over 6 months monthly increase is 0.69%.
• Relative to peak, the index now stands at -46.21% and relative to absolute minimum it is at +6.29%.
• September marked sixth consecutive month of rises in house prices.

For Apartments:

• Index rose to 50.9 in September from 50.0 in August and posted a 8.53% rise y/y. 
• 3mo cumulated gains are at 1.6% and 6mo cumulated gains are at 6.26%. Average over 6 months monthly decrease is -0.41%.
• Relative to peak, the index now stands at -58.92% and relative to absolute minimum it is at +11.38%.
• September marked second consecutive month of rises in apartments prices.

Dublin RPPI:

• Index rose to 65.9 in September from 63.4 in August and posted a massive 12.27% rise y/y.
• 3mo cumulated gains are at 9.47% and 6mo cumulated gains are at 12.07%. Average over 6 months monthly increase is 1.13%.
• Relative to peak, the index now stands at -51.0% and relative to absolute minimum it is at +15.01%.
• September marked sixth consecutive month of rises in Dublin property prices.

Conclusions:

• Twin convergence toward long-term equilibrium prices is now evident in Dublin markets (upward price pressures) and National ex-Dublin prices (downward pressures). 
• The core question is when will Dublin prices overshoot their long-run trend and moderate again?
• Another core question is what the fundamentals determined price levels are for Dublin and for the rest of the country?
• I have no answers to the above questions and anyone who says they do is most likely talking porkies.
• What I do know is that there are plenty of risks to the downside and headwinds working through the economy. These include: mortgages arrears, income effects of tax and charges changes in Budget 2014, banks rates on existent mortgages; and new mortgages supply and pricing. 
• So far, my gut feeling is that we are still on a sustainable upward trend in Dublin and on moderating negative trend in the rest of the country. 

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Google And Yahoo Cry Foul

While those credulous enough to trust any assertions made explicitly or otherwise by the security services of the UK and USA continue to nod obediently whenever the spooks kick the deeply subversive Guardian and its partners in the States and mainland Europe, not everyone is so happy about the behaviour of the NSA and GCHQ. In fact, Google and Yahoo are livid at their alleged treatment.

As the Washington Postrevealed yesterday, “NSA apparently taps Google, Yahoo networks without companies’ knowledge”. To no surprise at all, the targets of this latest bombshell were not happy bunnies. “Google has expressed outrage following a report that the US National Security Agency (NSA) has hacked its data links ... An executive at Google said it was not aware of the alleged activity, adding there was an ‘urgent need for reform’”.

Yahoo weren’t exactly ecstatic, either: “Google and Yahoo, two of the world's biggest tech companies, reacted angrily to a report on Wednesday that the National Security Agency has secretly intercepted the main communication links that carry their users' data around the world”.

Google’s Chief Legal Officer noted “We have long been concerned about the possibility of this kind of snooping, which is why we have continued to extend encryption across more and more Google services and links, especially the links in the slide ... We do not provide any government, including the US government, with access to our systems”. Well, now we can see how the NSA gets in anyway.

Yahoo also protested that they were not aware of the surveillance: “We have strict controls in place to protect the security of our data centers, and we have not given access to our data centers to the NSA or to any other government agency”. As the Guardian put it, “Internet firms go to great lengths to protect their data. But the NSA documents published by the Post appear to boast about their ability to circumvent those protections”. And the more populist press is waking up to the NSA, too.

“Did the NSA even spy on the POPE? U.S. spies accused of intercepting phone calls during conclave as he was elected head of Catholic church” howled the Mail today. The article went on “Archbishop Bergoglio had been a person of interest to the CIA since 2005” and that Pope Emeritus Benedict may have been another target.

If the Snowden revelations are garnering interest in the Mail, that suggests Paul Dacre deems the matter important enough for his readers to be told. That in turn means that waving the matter away with “you’ve nothing to fear”, “trust what the Government spokesman tells you” and “spies spy – who knew?” will no longer wash. We need to know about this kind of behaviour. And we need better oversight.

Hopefully some of our elected representatives will take that on board.

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1,000 DC taxi drivers join Teamsters

A thousand Washington, D.C., taxi drivers, angry about expensive and unfair regulation, are banding together with Teamsters Local 922 in a new way of organizing workers.

For their first formal meeting, the drivers crowded into the union hall on Tuesday and packed the parking lot, listening to the proceedings on a loudspeaker. Local reporters were keenly interested in the story. Reported dcist:

"We will win!" the crowd chanted after Ferline Buie, president of Teamsters Local 922, said that the union would help drivers win "fairness, justice, equality, dignity and respect" through their new association. 

"We're here to tell the D.C. Taxicab Commission that these regulations have been handled totally unfair," Buie said. "We need more time to deal with these new and costly regulations. We also want to make sure that the drivers aren't burdened ... with the costs of these new regulations."

The drivers are independent, so they can't join the Teamsters in the traditional way. What they can do -- and did -- is form a dues-paying association so together they can  oppose costly and unfair regulations from the local taxi commission. Washington state taxi drivers did the same thing last year. It's part of a national alt-labor movement that includes fast food workers, Walmart workers and farmworkers.

The Talking Union blog describes alt-labor as:

...forms of worker representation that don’t fit in the traditional union/collective bargaining mold. Perhaps best known are the “worker centers” found in many cities, often affiliated with Interfaith Worker Justice. These walk-in centers perform admirable work helping workers who lack union membership to seek justice when they have been cheated of wages or hurt on the job; many focus especially on the needs of immigrant workers. Other experiments are modeled after professional associations or advocacy groups.

Drivers have high hopes for their new association.

"We need a strong voice, and our association with Local 922 will give us that strong voice!" Mohamud Samantar, a driver for 10 years, told the crowd. "We need our rights and our association with Local 922 will give us our rights."

"We need all drivers to stand united to fight for our rights. When we are united, we will win our rights," said Stan Tapscott, a driver since 1962 and D.C. Taxicab Commission member.

Addis Gebreselassie, a driver for more than 12 years with Silver Cab, said he had a speech written down, but was opting to not read that speech. Instead, he delivered these three words from the podium: "No more disrespect." The crowd applauded and then began chanting "No more disrespect!"

To follow the Washington, D.C., taxi drivers fight, go to their website here.
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