1/11/2013: Decent News on Live Register Front: October 2013

Live Register numbers for October released yesterday are pretty good, for a change. 

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, overall official Live Register counts declined to 409,900 from 413,600 in September. Seasonally-adjusted LR is now down 5.60% y/y - an improvement on decline of 4.9% recorded back in September.

3mo MA also is down 5.03% year on year, and 2.2% lower on 3mo through July 2013. 

So decent headline readings, consistent with continued trends working through LR overall:

1) Outflows due to new jobs creation

2) Outflows due to emigration and benefits expirations

Level changes: m/m down 3,700 and y/y down 24,300. 

Compared with Q1 2011 average - the last period prior to the current Government coming into office, Live Register is down 3.8% in the last 3 months through October 2013.

Two charts above also show Live Register with State Training Programmes participation added to it (LR+STPP). This broader measure of LR currently stands at 485,850 in October (I use September figure for STPPs as this is reported with one month lag). Assuming this holds, LR+STPP numbers are now 5.8% below where they were in October 2012 (note, September STPP figure more likely underestimates the October numbers, as there is very strong volatility and seasonal increases in September-November). 

This contrast with 3.7% decrease in LR+STPP recorded in September. Now, again - keep in mind that September numbers are the true comparative, as they are reflective of the recorded levels of STPPs. 

Back to october figures. The trend for LR+STPP is now to the downside when we strip out some of the monthly volatility. 3mo MA for LR+STPP currently runs at 1.35% lower than 3mo MA through July 2013 and is down 4.2% y/y. This confirms the decline of 2.4% recorded in LR+STPP y/y basis for the 3 months through July 2013.

Current 3mo MA is 4.7% below Q1 2011 reading for LR+STPP.

Broadly-speaking, the numbers are encouraging.

Another interesting trend in the LR participation by the under-25 years of age: this is down massive 10.4% y/y in October and was down 10.3% in September. On 3mo MA basis, the figures are down 10.4% y/y and are down 3.4% on previous 3mo MA through July 2013. I wonder how much of these declines is due to cuts to benefits and expirations of benefits and younger people removing themselves out of the labour force.

Finally, Casual and Part-time Workers on LR have fallen 5.1% y/y in October and were down 3.3% in September. On 3mo MA basis, the figures are down 5.7% on previous 3mo period through July, and are down 3.6% y/y.

Summary: overall we have encouraging changes in the LR. More analysis is needed to decompose these into jobs creation numbers as opposed to benefits expirations and emigration. More current data is needed on State Training Programmes participation (this will be available for October when November LR is released). A summary of changes is shown in the chart below:

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29/8/2013: Broader Unemployment & Underemployment in Ireland: Q2 2013

On foot of the latest data from the QNHS (broad trends analysis here), let's take a look at the broader measures of unemployment, as reported by the CSO (with the last measure: PLS4+STP being compiled by myself based on CSO data from the Live Register and QNHS).

Here are the core definitions, used:

And the numbers are:

• PLS1 - unemployed persons plus discouraged workers - rose from 14.6% in Q1 2013 to 14.8% in Q2 2013, but declined 1.3 percentage points on Q2 2012. Relative to peak (16.2% in Q3 2011), the indicator is now down 1.4 percentage points, which is a pretty poor performance, when you think of it: 1.4 ppt down in 7 quarters).
• PLS2 is at 16.2% in Q2 2013, up on 16% in Q4 2012 and Q1 2012. Year on year, indicator is down 1.0 percentage points and it is down 1.1 percentage points on peak attained in Q3 2011. Again, poor performance relative to peak.
• PLS3 is at 18.2%, up on 18.0% in Q1 2013 and down 0.7 ppt on Q2 2012. Relative to peak the indicator is down 1.0 percentage points with the peak at Q3 2011.
• PLS4 is at 24.7%, which is down on 24.9% in Q1 2013 and is also down 1.1 ppt y/y. Q2 2012 was the peak reading for indicator, so PLS4 is down now 1.1 ppt on peak too - decline delivered over 4 quarters.
• Finally, adding State Training Programmes participants to PLS4, we have PLS4+STP indicator at 27.8%, down on 28.9% in Q1 2013 and down only 0.5 ppt on Q2 2012. Indicator peak was attained in Q3 2012, so the indicator is now down 1.1 ppt on peak.

Summary of y/y and relative to peak changes recorded in Q2 2013 is here:

Lastly, gains in the labour force illustrated:

The above marks a nice increase in the labour force participation out to 2,170,700 in Q2 2013 from 2,137,500 in Q1 2013 and 2,159,100 in Q2 2012. The increase, however, comes off the low base to begin with and basically returns labour force numbers to the levels where they were back around Q3 2011.

Summary: Broader unemployment and underemployment metrics are improving y/y but not q/q. The broadest measure PLS4+STP down very marginally y/y by just 0.5 percentage points. This is hardly encouraging. On a positive side, all metrics are showing signs of stabilisation, albeit at very high levels of unemployment and underemployment. In most basic terms, with 27.8% of our broader potential workforce either unemployed, underemployed or in state training programmes, we have a real problem on our hands, still, and it is not getting better at any appreciable rate of improvement.

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29/8/2013: Some positives v negatives from QNHS data: Q2 2013

Latest QNHS figures from Ireland are encouraging. Actually, given much of the tough news on the front of employment and jobs creation prior, these are heart warming. Here are the headlines:

Employment:

• "There was an annual increase in employment of 1.8% or 33,800 in the year to the second quarter of 2013, bringing total employment to 1,869,900. This compares with an annual increase in employment of 1.1% in the previous quarter and a decrease of 1.3% in the year to Q2 2012." This is good. Employment is up against adverse demographic effects, which is good, but it is also up due to superficial effects of reclassifications of some categories (see warning below).
• Even better news: "Full-time employment increased by 21,600 or 1.5% in the year to Q2 2013 while part-time employment increased by 12,100 or 2.8% over the year." So levels of increase in full-time employment are outstripping increases in part-time employment, implying that average jobs pool quality is not declining anymore.
• This marks third consecutive quarter of q/q increases in employment: "On a seasonally adjusted basis, employment increased by 9,600 (+0.5%) in the quarter." There was a seasonally adjusted increase in employment of 9,000 (+0.5%) in Q1 2013 and 12,100 (+0.7%) in Q4 2012.
• Employment increases and decreases composition are not sending a good signal, with higher value-added sub-categories of employment up: "Employment fell in five of the fourteen economic sectors over the year... The greatest rates of decline were recorded in the Administration and support service activities(-7.9% or -5,000), Transportation and storage (-5.4% or -4,900) and Public administration and defence; compulsory social security (-4.5% or -4,500) sectors. The largest rates of increase were recorded in the Agriculture, forestry and fishing (+18.7% or 16,300) and the Accommodation and food service activities(+8.0% or 9,600) sectors. 
• Here is a warning shot on the above figures: "In the case of the Agriculture, forestry and fishing sector it can be noted that estimates of employment in this sector have shown to be sensitive to sample changes over time." So, wait... +16,300 'new' jobs in Agriculture etc are really old jobs reclassified... or at least a large share of these are... Oops.. Note that this exactly matches decrease in the 'Not in the labour force' category (-16,300 y/y) and this knocks out quite a bit of wind out of the 'jobs creation' figures sails...

Unemployment:

• "The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased from 13.8% to 13.7% over the quarter while the number of persons unemployed fell marginally by 500 persons, again on a seasonally adjusted basis." This is news in so far it is 'official' QNHS reading, but we knew 13.7% figure back in May when we had the standardised rate of unemployment estimate from Live Register.
• "Unemployment decreased by 22,200 (-6.9%) in the year to Q2 2013 bringing the total number of persons unemployed to 300,700. This is the fourth quarter in succession where unemployment has declined on an annual basis." Which is good news, indeed, except, wait... what about the 16,300 'new' jobs in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing flagged above? Marginal decline of just 500 in terms of q/q seasonally-adjusted unemployment is a poor reading, to be honest. Better than an increase, but still, very weak. This weakness suggests that the bulk of 22,200 declines in unemployment rosters is due to exits and reclassifications of workers, not due to jobs creation.
• "The long-term unemployment rate decreased from 9.2% to 8.1% over the year to Q2 2013. Long-term unemployment accounted for 58.2% of total unemployment in Q2 2013 compared with 61.8% a year earlier and 56.1% in the second quarter of 2011." What we do not know here is whether this decrease was due to exits from benefits or entries into jobs or move to state-run training programmes. I will do analysis on these later, so stay tuned.

Labour force participation:

• Good news: "The total number of persons in the labour force in the second quarter of 2013 was 2,170,700, representing an increase of 11,500 (+0.5%) over the year. This compares with an annual labour force decrease of 19,600 (-0.9%) in Q2 2012." 
• The above is a good bit of news and it is made even better when we consider that increases in labour force were driven by increased participation rather than by demographic effects. In Q2 2013 there was a negative demographic effect cutting -16,300 from the overall labour force. This was more than offset by "a positive participation effect of 27,800 on the size of the labour force over the year.
• There was "an increase in the overall participation rate from 60.1% to 60.5% over the year to Q2 2013." Which is excellent news.
• "The number of persons not in the labour force in Q2 2013 was 1,415,600, a decrease of 16,300 (-1.1%) over the year." This seems to be related to reclassifications into Agriculture, etc. sector.

To summarise:

We have some positive news above, but overall, numbers remain obscured by reclassifications, changes in composition and lack of clarity on flows in- and out- of unemployment. 

Analysis of broader measures of unemployment, more indicative of underlying quality and nature of changes in the aggregate figures, is to follow, so stay tuned.

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7/6/2013: Live Register May 2013: Headline Trends

Live Register numbers for May 2013 were out yesterday and I am only now getting to them (busy few days speaking and dealing with students etc), so here is the first of two posts on the subject. As usual, first up: headline numbers.

-- Total number of persons on Live Register in May stood at 426,100, which is 700 down on April 2013. Y/y LR is down 2.52% and this is an improvement on 2.29% decline recorded in April 2013. To-date Q2 2013 figures are down 0.53% on Q1 2013 and down 2.58% on Q2 2012. Again, as with monthly readings, this y/y decline in Q2 2013 to-date is deeper than the decline in Q1 2013 which posted -2.29%.
-- Total number of Live Register supports recipients to-date (official number, as distinct of the actual one - see data on state training participants below) is 266,607 ahead of pre-crisis 2000-2007 average.

In the charts above, I am referencing Live Register inclusive of the State Training Programmes participants. The reason for this separate data reporting is that while they continue to receive unemployment (Live Register) benefits, they are not included in the official Live Register counts. Please note: state training programmes participation is reported with 1 month lag compared to Live Register, so the latest number we have is for April 2013, which means that combined metric for May simply incorporates May 2013 data for Live Register, plus April 2013 data for State Training Programmes participation.

• In April 2013, there were 86,042 Live Register supports recipients who were officially engaged in State-run Training Programmes (STP). This was up 4.72% on April 2012.
• In April 2013, m/m change in Live Register was -200, while m/m change in STP was +673. In other words, in April, entire m/m 'decrease' in the official Live Register was 3 times smaller than an increase in STP.
• In April 2013, y/y change in official Live Register was -10,000, with 3,881 of these accounted for by increases in STP. 
• Put differently, in April 2013, m/m there was no decrease in unemployment benefits recipients' numbers at all, and in fact there was a m.m increase in these of some 473. Also in April 2013, y/y officially-reported massive decrease of 10,000 in official Live Register was really a smaller scale (albeit still welcome) decrease of 6,119.
• In May 2013, estimated Live Register + STP measure of unemployment benefits claimants stood at 512,142, which represents 23.96% of the labour force. Put differently, almost 1/4 of Ireland's labour force is currently in receipt of some form of unemployment assistance, which is well ahead of the official Live Register-implied estimated unemployment rate of 13.7% which would correspond to roughly 292,838 individuals.

• The numbers of those on the Live Register under the age of 25 was stuck in May at the same level of 68,900 as in March and April 2013. This represents a decline on 69,700 recorded in February and roughly corresponds to the levels last seen in December 2008-February 2009. However, it is most likely that these numbers are superficially depressed by the STP participation. Sadly, we do not have data on STPs reported regularly by the CSO to determine the exact extent of unemployment supports in the younger population.
• In May 2013, 16.17% of all Live Register supports recipients were under 25.
• Y/y, number of younger LR recipients was down 7.27% and so far in Q2 2013 the number is down on average 7.48% on Q2 2012.

Per CSO: "The number of long term claimants on the Live Register in May 2013 was 191,997." Overall, the number of long term claimants increased by 3,268 (+1.7%) y/y, while the proportion of the short-term claimants dropped to 54.5% (229,740) from 56.4% (244,178). This suggests that, as would be normally expected, short-term unemployed are finding it easier to find jobs than their longer term counterparts, and that, potentially, this effect is being reinforced by accelerating exits of the long-term unemployed due to benefits expiration.

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31/5/2013: Part-time v Full-time Unemployment in Ireland

"Less positively, the Quarterly National Household Survey showed that most of the gains in employment have been in part-time rather than full-time jobs." Irish Times : http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland/employment-grows-for-third-successive-quarter-1.1412103?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

Sadly, I must say, this is simply incorrect.

In Q1 2013, full-time jobs stood at 1,391,100 which is down on Q4 2012 when these counted 1,398,700 (-7,700 q/q change) and is down on Q1 2012 when the full-time jobs counted 1,394,800 (-3,700 y/y). This is also down on Q1 2011 when full-time jobs numbered 1,401,800 (a net loss of 10,700 full-time jobs in 2 years).

Part-time jobs rises accounted for all, repeat all, increases in Q1 2013: these increased to 454,400 in Q1 2013 from 450,200 in Q4 2012 (+4,200 q/q) and were up on 430,200 (+24,200 y/y) on Q1 2012. This is goodish, as - obviously - it is better that people are working at least part-time. However, it is simply incorrect to claim that "most of the gains in employment have been in part-time rather than full-time jobs" when there were DECREASES in full-time jobs.

Worse than that: the picture is further distorted by the differences in changes in part-time underemployed jobs numbers and part-time not underemployed numbers.

Year on year, part-time not underemployed numbers rose from 291,300 in Q1 2012 to 298,500 in Q1 2013 - a gain of 7,200 or just 29.7% of all part-time (and net) jobs gained y/y. The rest 70% of the jobs gains were amongst part-time underemployed. And compounding this, quarter on quarter, numbers of those in part-time employment who are not underemployed actually fell - from 304,400 in Q4 2012 to 298,500 in Q1 2013.

It would help to read the Table 1 of the CSO release : http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/labourmarket/2013/qnhs_q12013.pdf

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30/5/2013: Official Broader Unemployment in Ireland stands at 25%

The latest data for Q1 2013 from QNHS is out today with worrying sub-trends indicating that the labour markets are not showing any significant improvements in broader metrics of unemployment.

CSO defines 4 measures of broader unemployment:
PLS1 indicator is unemployed persons plus discouraged workers as a percentage of the Labour Force plus discouraged workers.
PLS2 indicator is unemployed persons plus Potential Additional Labour Force as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force
PLS3 indicator is unemployed persons plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training.
PLS4 indicator is unemployed persons plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training plus part-time underemployed persons as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training.

Since all exclude training, we can add those on State programmes into PLS4 to arrive at PLS4+STP - the broadest measure of unemployment.

Here is a chart:

Year on year through Q1 2013:

• Standard unemployment (PLS1) declined 1.4% from 16.0% in Q1 2012 to 14.6% in Q1 2013. This is good news, made even better by realising that Q1 2013 reading stood at the lowest level since Q1 2010 when it was 14.2%.
• Adding potential additional labour force to the PLS1 we have PLS2 measure, which in Q1 2013 was 16.0%, down 1% o n Q1 2012 and marking the lowest reading since Q1 2010 when it was registering 15.1%.
• PLS3 is the above unemployment plus others who want a job, not available & not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training. This measure stood at 18.0 in Q1 2013, down on 18.8% in Q1 2012 (-0.8% y/y) and bang-on identical to the levels in Q1 2011.
• Last official measure reported by CSO, PLS4 combines PLS3 and those who are underemployed (in part-time employment, but are seeking full-time employment). PLS4 in Q1 2013 was 25.0% - identical to Q1 2012 and up on Q1 2011 when it stood at 23.7%. Thus, once underemployed are added into the equation, Irish unemployment stood still over the last 12 months. This is not great by any means.
• Finally, I compute PLS4+ State Training Programmes participants by combining QNHS data with Live Register. In Q1 2013, PLS4+STP measure stood at 29.0%, up 0.7% on Q1 2012 and marking the highest historical point for any quarter on the record (previous record was recoded at 28.991% in Q3 2012, which compares against Q1 2013 level of 28.994%).

Chart 2 shows Q1 2013 measures relative to their historical peaks.

Overall labour force participation rate fell again, this time -0.44% y/y and labour force is now down 162,600 on peak.

Notice: the above numbers do not account for emigration and the above unemployment numbers do not account for those who are of labour force participation age, but are not seeking employment and are no longer registering as being a part of labour force. If gross emigration in 2008-2012 stood around 300,000, and assuming that all of it related to families, taking average participation rate at current 59.5% and applying average size of household to the above emigration numbers implies ca 90,000 emigration for those who otherwise could have been in the labour force. With this number factored in the above numbers change as follows:

• PLS1 standard unemployment would rise from 312,075 to 401,325 or in percentage terms, from 14.6% to 18.0%
• PLS2 standard unemployment, plus potential additional labour force numbers would rise from 342,000 to 431,250 or in percentage terms, from 16% to 19.4%
• PLS3 = PLS2, plus others who want a job, not available & not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training would rise from 384,750 to 474,000 or in percentage terms, from 18% to 21.3%
• PLS4 combines PLS3 and those who are underemployed (in part-time employment, but are seeking full-time employment) would rise from 534,375 (or 25.0%) to 623,625 (or 18.0%)
• PLS4 + STP would rise from 619,744 (or 29.0%) to 708,994 (or 31.8%)

With some serious caution we can say that approximately over 700,000 people in this country are now either unemployed, underemployed, on State Training Programmes or have been forced to emigrate by the realities of this crisis. We can also say, with much more clarity, that - per official figures - broad unemployment and underemployment in this country is running at its highest level ever, or 29%. recorded.

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10/4/2013: Broader measures of unemployment in Ireland: 2012

Ireland's broader unemployment rates per CSO and adding State Training Programmes participants are as follows:

• PLS1 indicator is unemployed persons plus discouraged workers as a percentage of the Labour Force plus discouraged workers as of Q4 2012: 14.9%
• PLS2 indicator is unemployed persons plus Potential Additional Labour Force as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force as of Q4 2012: 16.1%
• PLS3 indicator is unemployed persons plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training as of Q4 2012: 18.2%
• PLS4 indicator is unemployed persons plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training plus part-time underemployed persons as a percentage of the Labour Force plus Potential Additional Labour Force plus others who want a job, who are not available and not seeking for reasons other than being in education or training as of Q4 2012: 24.6%
• PLS$ indicator including those on State Training Programmes as of Q4 2012: 28.4%

And three charts with dynamics:

Now, y/y changes in percentage points change:

• PLS1: -0.7 ppt
• PLS2: -0.6 ppt
• PLS3: -0.2 ppt
• PLS4: -0.2 ppt
• PLS4 and State Training Programmes participants: +0.98 ppt

So one thing is pretty clear: the broader the measure of unemployment we take, the lower is the rate of decline y/y and the smaller is the rate of decline relative to peak. 

Any source

5/4/2013: Live Register March 2013

In light of the recent statement by the IMF about Ireland's broader measure of unemployment, let's ask two other simple questions:

1. How many people in Ireland receive unemployment supports? 
2. What percentage of the workforce in Ireland receives unemployment supports?

Answer in two charts based on latest CSO data:

Q1:

A1: In March 2013, there were 425,088 individuals on Live Register and in February 2013 (the latest for which this data is available) 83,421 individuals engaged in state-sponsored training programmes that receive Live Register supports, but are not counted officially as being on Live Register. Thus total number of those in receipt of unemployment supports in Ireland is 508,509 individuals.

This means that while Live Register official numbers have declined 2.065% y/y in March, total number of Live Register supports recipients has declined only 1.355% on March 2012.

To be exactly precise on this, take February 2013 figures alone: in February 2013, total number of those in receipt of Live Register supports was 512,297 which was a decrease in y/y terms of 1.45%, against the official Live Register decrease reported of 2.40%.


Q2:

A2: Using Q4 2012 data for labour force participation (reported via QNHS with a lag compared to Live Register), 27.29% of Irish labour force were in receipt of Live Register assistance in March 2013. 

Again, the data is reported with different lags, so for exact comparative we have to go to December 2012 when 24.23% of Irish labour force were in receipt of Live Register assistance.

Oh, as a bonus, here's a historical chart showing Live Register supports numbers for Ireland since 1967:

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