Avui, a la costa sud dels Estats Units, i més concretament al delta del Mississipi és noticia l’arribada de l’huracà Gustav amb una força de categoria 3. És a dir, vents sostinguts de fins a 185 km/h i fortes precipitacions.
Aquesta nit (hora espanyola), la part post-frontal de l’huracà ja està escombrant tota la costa sud nord-americana, amb fortes precipitacions i onades de més de 2 metres. Es preveu, que durant la tarda de dilluns, la part més ferotge de l’huracà toqui terres americanes, tot i que ha perdut energia les últimes hores, no es descarta que pugi a categoria 4 amb vents superiors els 200 km/h. Està clar, que les properes hores seran crítiques en aquella zona, i qui sap, si després del seu pas tornarem a parlar d’un nou Katrina.
SEGUEIX L'EVOLUCIÓ DEL GUSTAV EN DIRECTE CLIC AQUÍ
Aquest proper diumenge, meteorològicament parlant, serà el darrer dia d’estiu i donarem pas a la tardor climàtica (setembre, octubre i novembre). Tot sembla indicar, que serà de la millor forma possible, amb ruixats i tempestes. I és que com millor s’ha de donar la benvinguda a l’època de l’any més plujosa en tota la conca mediterrània espanyola que no sigui amb “bon temps”.
El pas d’un front, acompanyat d’una petita bossa d’aire fred en alçada, serà l’origen del canvi de temps per diumenge. Avui, ja s’han donat fortes tempestes per la zona nord-oest d’Espanya, amb algun aiguat localitzat i fortes descàrregues elèctriques. Aquesta zona d’inestabilitat que afecta aquesta zona de la Península, s’ha d’anar desplaçant cap a l’est, estenent-se les tempestes en tota la meitat nord.
Aquest front, es troba alimentat per humitats elevades (entre el 60 i el 80% d’humitat relativa) en totes les capes de la troposfera. Aquesta humitat, ajudarà a la convecció diürna, on els vents càlids ascendent originats per l’escalfor de la superfície es toparan, ajudats per l’orografia, amb l’humitat i, a la vegada, per una bossa freda entorn els -15ºC. A la vegada, a la meitat est de Catalunya, s’està gestant una àrea d’inestabilitat amb una CAPE de més de 2000 J/ kg i un Lifted de fins a -7. La formació de fenòmens tornàdics al mar podrien ser noticia, tot i que seran difícils d’apreciar degut a que la màxima possibilitat de la formació d’aquests fenòmens seria de cara a la nit. A més, es preveu vent d’origen marítim (SE) en superfície que ajudaria a l’aportació d’humitat durant la convecció diürna anteriorment mencionada.
Model GFS. Podem apreciar, com el CAPE és molt elevat i l'índex LI extremadament negatiu.
Model GFS. La bossa freda de -16ºC, un cop creuat Catalunya, s'ubicarà davant la costa catalana, justament, quan hi haurà el màxim d'inestabilitat.
Així doncs, per diumenge, s’espera un dia variables, amb creixement de nuvolades que originarien una tarda de ruixats i tempestes, algunes d’elles podrien ser fortes i intenses, acompanyades de calamarsa i fort aparell elèctric, no es descarta algun fenomen sever.
Ja demà dissabte, s’apreciarà l’arribada d’aquest canvi de temps, amb ruixats al Pirineu i l’arribada de núvols alts i mitjos per ponent.
A Tossa, s’espera que les tempestes arribin a partir del migdia de diumenge, sent més importants de cara a la nit. No obstant, com totes aquestes situacions, s’hauran d’anar seguint molt a prop i veure la seva evolució.
Economist Jason Furman (real economist, not self-proclaimed, he has a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard and served as Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy in the Clinton Administration.) notes that the Congressional Budget Office, the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), and academic researchers have found that tax cuts that are financed by borrowing, hurt the economy over the long run; please see here for more.
So in other words, tax cuts that are financed by just increasing the deficit mean more national borrowing, which lowers net national savings, and thus investment. And as any family knows, the less you save and invest, the poorer you are over the long run. Thus, the serious unbiased studies that have been done show that a dollar in tax cuts ends up costing more than a dollar over the long run, not less, if it's financed by government borrowing.
What if it's financed by cutting government programs? Well, as I wrote in my last post, many of those government programs have extremely high social returns, like alternative energy, infrastructure, education, basic scientific and medical research, etc., and are things that the free market will grossly underprovide (provide at a level far less than that which yields maximum growth and welfare) due to market imperfections that are well established and proven in economics (real, scientific academic economics, not screaming talk show host, propaganda tank economics), like externalities, asymmetric information, impracticalities of patenting, large economies of scale and monopoly issues, the zero marginal cost of information and ideas, the inability to price discriminate well, and many more available in any university introductory and intermediate economics texts.
Tax cuts, on the other hand, it has been found, tend to eventually be spent, by and large, on short term consumption items of little or no productive or investment value. If you cut your spending on productive infrastructure, alternative energy, education, etc. to give big tax cuts to Paris Hilton and friends so they can buy more million dollar Ferraris, and have more nights in $50,000 hotel rooms, you end up far poorer as a nation over the long run, not richer. These things have little or no productive or investment value. They're consumption, not investment. A dollar in tax cuts ends up costing you far more than a dollar over the long run, not less, as the Republican machine would like us to believe.
What if you cut wasteful government spending? Well, that should be cut no matter what, with or without tax cuts, but history has shown that cutting of waste actually decreases -- and greatly -- when we have Republican administrations and these giant tax cuts tilted massively towards the rich. There are several reasons for this. First, Republicans dislike and disrespect government, so they put little or no effort into learning how to run it well. Second, cronyism is ingrained in the party (update: please see here.), and third, there is a culture of corruption, and this is largely necessary if Republicans are to maintain power. With positions that are so harmful to the vast majority of Americans, they need to please rich corporate and individual donors in order to raise the money necessary for large scale advertising and propaganda to mislead and distract.
So the tax cuts end up being financed by government borrowing and cutting of government programs that have high or extremely high returns. You don't get richer by "saving" money by cutting your investment in your education, your mutual fund, and your government bonds, so you can spend it on a five star vacation or a new SUV.
Finally, what about Republican claims that tax cuts will make people work more hours because it increases their pay per hour? First, people today, by and large, work so hard, and spend so little time with their families by historical standards and compared to people in other countries, that it's not at all clear that this is desirable, and it's not even physically possible to work many more hours at this point. In addition, there is a point where production is decreased from more hours, because eventually it really hurts the quality of work. People become tired and burnt out. Competence and creativity are hurt. But aside from any of this, it has been shown in economics that in fact there is little long term relationship between tax rates and work hours. For most of the 20th century real wages per hour went up greatly at the same time that hours worked dropped. There's little long term effect, and what effect there is can easily go in the other direction. Cutting taxes can decrease work hours. A key reason is the long ago established and accepted in economics, income and substitution effects, which you can find in any university microeconomics text.
The idea is this: If you raise someone's wage from $8/hour to $12, they may go from 40 hours/week to 45, because they get $4 more for giving up an hour; that's the substitution effect. But if you raise their wage from $8/hour to $1 million/hour, they will probably work like 40 hours per year! And then spend the rest of the year enjoying all of that money. That's the income effect. When you raise someone's wage per hour, they don't have to work as many hours to live in a way that they consider well. Empirically, it appears that with taxes at about their current level, the income effect becomes greater at about the middle class level, and then we get what's called a backward bend to the labor supply curve. Cornell economist Robert Frank has a nice brief New York Times Economics Scene article explaining all of this, "In the Real World of Work and Wages, Trickle-Down Theories Don’t Hold Up".
Emotiva despedida ayer de José Antonio Maldonado, en el espacio del Tiempo de TVE1. Con él se cierra una magnífica etapa de la meteorología en la televisión, que sin duda ha sabido llevar con gran ilusión y esmero durante nada más y nada menos que 22 años. Desde Meteo Orihuela aquí va un homenaje, a sin duda alguna, un gran divulgador de El Tiempo.
So the the right wing propaganda tank, Tax Foundation, claims that tax cuts recover up to 40% of their costs through so-called dynamic effects, while Bush's own Treasury Department estimated less than 10%.
Even if it actually were 40%, are tax cuts a good idea, especially tax cuts going predominantly to the rich and extremely rich? They're still costing the government 60% that can't go to many extremely high social return projects that the free market won't undertake due to market imperfections that are well established and proven in economics (real, scientific, academic economics, not screaming talk show host, propaganda tank economics), like externalities, asymmetric information, impracticalities of patenting, large economies of scale and monopoly issues, the zero marginal cost of information and ideas, the inability to price discriminate well, and many more available in any university introductory and intermediate economics texts.
Suppose we consider continuing Republican policies and spending another 1 trillion on tax cuts for the rich. Even if 40% were recovered (and in the long run, as opposed to just looking at short run effects, the dynamic effects go in the opposite direction -- a dollar in tax cuts ends up costing a lot more than a dollar in government revenue if that means a dollar, or even 60 cents, less in investment in high return government projects.).
The vast majority of the tax cuts, it has been shown, will eventually be spent on consumption items of little long run investment value -- leaving little to show or to grow. If instead, even just 60% of that 1 trillion were spent by the government on extremely high social return investments like infrastructure, education, basic scientific and medical research, alternative energy, etc., then 10 or 20 years from now that 600 billion could result in many trillions, or even tens of trillions more in national wealth, as opposed to having the whole 1 trillion spent on rapidly depreciating Ferraris and yachts, and ultra luxury vacations and other things for the rich that have little or no productive value.
In the long run, a dollar spent on tax cuts for the rich, instead of badly needed social investment puts us one more step closer to losing our status as the most wealthy and modern nation, and over the long run, like any other decision to increase frivolous consumption at the expense of high return investment, it costs us a lot more than a dollar, not less.
"Are we near the bottom? Is the end near? I wish I could answer yes"
Mark, please think very carefully about this. Do you really wish housing prices would stop falling? Do you really think it would be better to have housing be more expensive? Do you really think the costs of lower housing prices outweigh the benefits? Do you really think it's better to preserve the wealth of a minority of wealthier homeowners and investors, at the expense of the middle class and poor, who are really hurt by high home prices? I know most of the middle class own homes, but they can't benefit from higher home prices unless they move to a smaller or otherwise less desirable home. Their children, on the other hand, can be devastated by high home prices.
Harvard bankruptcy and personal finance expert Elizabeth Warren points to high home prices as the primary (later stage) reason for our epidemic of financial distress, and the primary reason why over the last generation family fixed expenses have gone from 54% of gross income with just one spouse working to 75% for two (from Warren's book, The Two Income Trap, pages 50-53), with the inflexibility of this leading to debt spirals and today's epidemic of financial distress.
As Warren notes in her 2007 testimony before the Senate Finance Committee, "In 2004 the median homeowner was forking over a mortgage payment that was 76% larger [in real inflation adjusted dollars] than a generation earlier." (page 6). So now with home prices dropping, maybe it's down to 50% higher, so we should stop making something as fundamental as housing more affordable? That would be a good thing?
Lowering of housing prices, over the long run, does immensely more good than bad. It's a great thing. They can't go too low. What if they went to 1 cent for the average home? That would be bad? Over the long run that would make almost all families and individuals immensely more financially secure, to have just a trivial mortgage or rent payment. The lower the better for housing prices. The good this does far far outweighs the bad (although I certainly agree with well constructed aid for deserving homeowners at risk of, or in, foreclosure, and for other deserving people in financial distress). For more details, I have a brief paper regarding this.
Appleby Hunter Bailhache, an offshore specialist groupwith substantial presence in the jurisdictions of the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands and others, in the mid of August announced recruiting additional lawyers staff to the three-partner practice in the British Virgin Islands.
One of the two lawyers which will add to the British Virgin Islands offering are Eliot Simpson, who was an advocate in the Jersey firm Mourant du Feu & Jeune. Now, as he joined as a partner to Appleby office in BVI, he will lead the BVI litigation and insolvency group.
Litigation and insolvency barrister Andrew Willins has become an associate at Appleby after membership in 29 Bedford Row, Nicholas Francis QC's chambers.
Andrew Bolton, the head of litigation and insolvency of Appleby, commented on the new appointments to the BVI office, saying that the skills and experience they bring mean that the company has one of the strongest litigation practices in the BVI.
Gilmanton, NH: Stopping on a back road near here to buy some corn, Brad kindly gave me tour of the family farm. His is the eight generation on the farm which was established in 1780. Much of the land round here was abandoned later once the topsoil had been used up and the rocks presented problems. But here and there a few farms survive, often occupied by descendants of the original families.
The farm I visited was of a mixed type you rarely see in the UK today. They owned 160 acres with another 160 rented. The three boys were home from college but the wet weather had delayed the harvest. Once they specialised in chickens, some two thousand of them, but they abandoned that in grandad's day. Brad wasn't sure why.
They grow corn for their cattle and to sell in their roadside shop. Sometimes they sell sacks of corn for cook outs. They make and sell hay. In addition to their cattle, they have around 60 sheep, not usually a big item in the US but there is a niche market in local Bosnian American and Greek American communities. They sell for around $100 each. They still have a few chickens.
But their most lucrative line is probably their maple syrup which they sell in their store. But Brad admitted that cash flow was a problem at some times of the year which is where mom's job as a librarian came in handy.
Subsidies did not seem to feature much, but two other local people who were not farmers told me they were applying for federal grants for conservation work on their properties, opening up the woodlands to provide a better environment for the moose. One was planning to hold tented events on her land which counted as a form of agri tourism.
But with no Single Farm Payment, the viability of the farms that operate commercially must remain in doubt - not that one would want it introduced in the US.Any source
Thursday September 4, 2008 is NFL Kickoff Night. To celebrate the return of Football Season, SouthWestNY Restaurant, located at 225 Liberty St./2 World Financial Center will host the Football Reporters Online (FRO) NFL Kickoff Show from 5:30pm-7pm. The staff of FRO, who have well over 100 years of “Football Experience” between them will be broadcasting a live Internet radio show @ www.Blogtalkradio.com/FootballReporters.
Why deal with the crowds at Columbus Circle for the NFL’s “Kick Off Party”?? If your not going to the Game – come on down to SouthWestNY and take part in our Live Show!
This broadcast will be available for download on iTunes after the show. Go to http://www.southwestny.com/ for the menu and directions
Elections in the US are coming, and the race is heating up. With Joe Biden just announced as the Democratic VP nominee, speculation is increasing about the Republican choice. To help you stay up to date on the latest election updates, we've set up a new one stop shop for your mobile electoral needs. Just go to m.google.com/elections on your mobile phone, and you can find these resources:
Mobile Search - Link to search results for Obama and McCain, so you don't have to type in their names on your phone each time you want information.
Mobile News - Read the latest! A handy link returns only elections-relevant news.
Mobile Reader - Are you subscribed to the Google Power Readers in Politics? If you're already following the reading lists of the presidential candidates or prominent political journalists on Google Reader, you can keep it up while you're on the go. Not yet subscribed? Manage your account and subscriptions on your desktop computer.
Mobile YouTube - Both presidential candidates have their own YouTube channels. Watch their latest clips of speeches and press conferences from your phone.
Mobile Maps - Are you going to the Democratic National Convention in Denver, or the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis? Make sure you've got Google Maps for mobile on your phone to help you get around town. (And if you're going, stop by and say hello! We'll be at both conventions.)
Posted by Effie Seiberg, Mobile Special ProjectsAny source
Com vaig anunciar dijous, el pas d’un front fred amb àrees d’inestabilitat marcades, originaria una sèrie de tempestes, que algunes d’elles podien ser severes. Finalment, la situació ha estat espectacular i, en alguns moments, esgarrifosa. En algunes zones del Pirineu gironí s’han superat els 100 litres i puntualment els 200! El desbordament de rieres i rierols i algun aiguat ha estat noticia en algunes zones, especialment zona Garrotxa – Ripollès - Osona - Berguedà.
El festival elèctric ha estat de primera categoria a tot Catalunya. En altres zones d’Espanya, com a Aragó o al nord de la Comunitat Valenciana les tempestes s’han fet sentir de valent.
Mapa de llamps. Podem apreciar el gran nombre de llamps caiguts en terres catalanes.
En alguns punts, aquestes tempestes s’han mostrat molt severes, amb calamarsades, forts vents i, fins i tot, algun cap de fibló (no hi ha constància que hagin tocat terra o mar).
Durant el matí, ja s’han produït alguns ruixats per les comarques gironines, que a partir de migdia s’han generalitzat en tot el Pirineu i Pre-Pirineu oriental, a la vegada que arribaven per les zones de l’Ebre. A partir del vespre ha estat quan les tempestes s’han decidit escombrar el Principat d’oest a est a la vegada que es formava un "tren" convectiu de tempestes fortes en forma de linia de turbonada, possiblement es podria tracar d'un petit Sistema Convectiu.
En l’animació del radar, podem apreciar com les tempestes han entrat per l’oest a la vegada que es formaven nous nuclis convectius arreu de Catalunya i continuaven estàtiques les del Pirineu de Girona.
A Tossa de Mar, han caigut entre 14 i 17 litres (Segons pluviòmetre homologat 15 litres), depenent de la zona i del pluviòmetre. La temperatura ha experimentat una davallada, sobretot la mínima.
Durant els propers dies, el temps es mostrarà inestable, típic de finals d’agost. Les nuvolades seran presents i produiran ruixats i tempestes de tarda que localment serien moderades. Aquests ruixats serien més probables al prelitoral i interior del nord-est. Podrien arribar a Tossa de cara al vespre en forma de ruixats irregulars. En conjunt poca cosa.
No obstant, s’haurà d’anar seguint, ja que alguns models mostren una certa inestabilitat més acusada a partir de diumenge.
Imagine if web sites could provide you with customized information based on your current location, even if you don't have GPS. Today we're launching the Gears Geolocation API for mobile and desktop browsers, while two third-party developers are launching the first location-enabled web apps using this API on Windows Mobile.
One of the most popular travel sites in the Europe, lastminute.com, has now location-enabled their new mobile restaurant finder to help you find restaurants near you without requiring you to type in where you are. If you're in the UK, just go to fonefood at m.lastminute.com, click the "Find your location" link on the home page, select the type of restaurant you want, and lastminute.com will automatically work out which neighbourhood and city you are in and find matching restaurants. This is great for both UK residents and the millions of tourists who visit each year.
Rummble is a new social discovery tool where you can recommend places to visit and see personalised recommendations from friends. Just go to m.rummble.com and click on the "Update location with Gears" link on the home page to see the "Rummbles" near you.
These two apps make use of the Gears Geolocation API. The API can determine your location using nearby cell-towers or GPS for your mobile device or your computer's IP address for your laptop. Google provides this service for free to both developers and users.
Gears is available on IE Mobile on mobile and Internet Explorer and Firefox on desktop. To use the location-enabled lastminute.com and Rummble web apps you will need a Windows Mobile device that supports GPS or cell-id lookup (for example the Samsung Blackjack II and HTC Touch Dual, see supported devices FAQ). We are working hard to bring Gears to more mobile platforms, such as Android and others.
Google takes your privacy very seriously. Although Gears and the Geolocation API do not record your location, you should only allow web sites that you trust to access your location. Gears will always tell you when a site wants to access your location for the first time and you can either allow or deny that site permission. Always check the privacy policy of the web site if you are in doubt as to how they may use your location information.
If you are in the UK and have a supported Windows Mobile device visit m.lastminute.com and m.rummble.com today. The first time you use the location feature you will be prompted to download and install Gears.
Posted by Charles Wiles, Product Manager, Google mobile teamAny source
Aquest estiu està sent relativament sec en molts indrets de Catalunya, i Tossa no es queda el marge. No obstant, a partir de demà, amb el pas d’un front fred bastant actiu, originarà un d’aquells dies típics de finals d’agost, amb ruixats, grans nuvolades i alguna tempesta severa.
El pas d’un front fred que creuarà el nord peninsular d’oest a est entre divendres i dissabte inestabilitzarà l’atmosfera d’una forma ben marcada. El front vindrà acompanyat d’una bossa d’aire fred en alçada de -16ºC i amb humitats superiors al 80% en totes les capes de la troposfera, a més, en la zona est peninsular s’ha format una àrea d’inestabilitat important, amb un CAPE d’uns 1300 J/Kg i i un Lifted entre -3 i -5º. A més, el vent serà de component marítim i l’escalfor acumulada durant el dia abans que arribi el front a la conca mediterrània catalana originarà una realimentació del front a casa nostra i, per tant, la possibilitat de tempestes fortes serà més que considerable.
És a dir, a partir de demà al vespre i fins dissabte a la tarda la possibilitat de tempestes severes (forts vents, pluja intensa i calamarsa o pedra), fins i tot amb algun fenomen tornàdic, és elevat a tot el Principat, especialment prelitoral.
Els ruixats i les tempestes començaren a entrar per la meitat oest de Catalunya, i s’aniran estenent cap a l’est, arribant a la costa de cara al vespre. Tanmateix, durant el dia, especialment la tarda, aniran creixent nuvolades de desenvolupament vertical que donaran lloc a tempestes, que a la vegada s’aniran “unint” amb les provinents de ponent.
A Tossa, serà durant la nit de divendres, la matinada i matí de dissabte quan els ruixats i les tempestes seran més importants, amb possibilitat de ruixats intensos i fort aparell elèctric, com va passar la setmana passada, no es descarta algun fenomen sever. S’haurà d’estar alerta i seguir la situació.
Model Hirlam. Mapa de temperatura a 5500 metres d'alçada (500hPa).
Podem apreciar una llengua d’aire fred (-16ºC) que escombrarà la península. Aquest aire fred, alimentarà els núvols i serà un dels elements principals per tenir tempestes fortes. Cal recordar, que l’aire fred amb condicions d’inestabilitat (humitats altes i àrees inestables) i amb calor en superfície, origina una diferència de temperatura i de potencial atmosfèric molt marcat, aquesta diferència de temperatura, origina corrents ascendents (originat per l’escalfor del sol en la superfície) que en trobar-se amb humitat a les capes més altes es condensa i, juntament, amb l’aire fred, la condensació es fa més ràpida i més forta, donant lloc a grans nuvolades amb fortes tempestes.
Model DWD. Mapa d'humitat prevista a 3000 metres (700hPa). Podem apreciar una humitat gairebé saturada que representa el fort potencial del front.
Model GFS. Mapa de precipitació i pressió per divendres a les 18 hores.
Podem apreciar, com les taques de precipitació cobreixen tot el nord-est peninsular. Tot i que no indica precipitacions abundants, on descarregui les tempestes fortes, es podrien registrar quantitats superiors els 30 litres.
En aquest models d’Energia Convectiva Potencialment Disponible (CAPE), podem veure com arriba de cara a divendres a valors superiors als 1000 J/Kg. És a dir, tindrem una disponibilitat d’energia a l’ambient bastant importants per permetre el desenvolupament de moviments verticals en el seu interior que sumat a les bones condicions d’humitat afavorirà la formació de nuclis convectius importants.
Tanmateix, trobem l’índex LI (Lifted Index) de fins a -5, un valor tan negatiu que es tradueix en fenòmens molts severs i extrems (a partir d’aquest valor es donen els fenòmens tornàdics). Aquest valor LI té en compte la temperatura i humitat a 950 hPa i 500 hPa, i quan els valors són negatius significa que tenim inestabilitat i que les corrents ascendents seran més fortes i permetran el desenvolupament de grans tempestes.
Des de diferents serveis meteorològics s’han activat diferents nivells d’alerta. A més dels coneguts serveis meteorològics territorials, existeixen d’altres que assenyalen els possibles fenòmens violents, és el cas de l’ESTOFEX, un servei de vigilància europeu de fenòmens severs. Podem apreciar, com ens indiquen el nivell 2, és a dir, de fenòmens violents i la formació de possibles tornados. Any source
Financial Secretary Jane Kennedy has released information about the plans of UK HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) for the period ending March 31, 2009. HMRC is going to complete work on new Tax Information Agreements with numerous countries, among which there is the British Virgin Islands, Brazil, Jersey, Guernsey, and the Isle of Man. Double taxation conventions (DTCs) are to be signed with the Netherlands, Ethiopia, Libya and Thailand.
Besides the BVI and other countries, HMRC also intends to progress negotiations with China, US, Spain, Belgium, Luxembourg and Hungary, and start negotiations with Australia, Canada, Israel, and Spain.
The provisions of the convention between the UK and Makedonia, which was signed on November 8, 2006, took effect in the UK on April 1 for corporation tax purposes, and on April 6 for income tax and capital gains tax purposes, while in Macedonia they took effect from January 1. Article any source