Sunday, August 31, 2008

GUSTAV, EL NOU KATRINA?

Avui, a la costa sud dels Estats Units, i més concretament al delta del Mississipi és noticia l’arribada de l’huracà Gustav amb una força de categoria 3. És a dir, vents sostinguts de fins a 185 km/h i fortes precipitacions.


Aquesta nit (hora espanyola), la part post-frontal de l’huracà ja està escombrant tota la costa sud nord-americana, amb fortes precipitacions i onades de més de 2 metres. Es preveu, que durant la tarda de dilluns, la part més ferotge de l’huracà toqui terres americanes, tot i que ha perdut energia les últimes hores, no es descarta que pugi a categoria 4 amb vents superiors els 200 km/h. Està clar, que les properes hores seran crítiques en aquella zona, i qui sap, si després del seu pas tornarem a parlar d’un nou Katrina.

SEGUEIX L'EVOLUCIÓ DEL GUSTAV EN DIRECTE CLIC AQUÍ

VEURE INFORMATIUS AMERICANS
CLIC AQUÍ
-
MÉS INFORMACIÓ MÉTEO SOBRE EL GUSTAV CLIC AQUÍ
-
INFORMATIUS CNN EN VIU CLICA AQUÍ
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Saturday, August 30, 2008

Más noticias del Tiempo en el Mundo

"Nueva Orleans se vacía"

"Hanna se torna peligrosa"

"Gustav impacta Jamaica"
.
Lo puedes ver y opinar en: http://www.fergco.co/
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Friday, August 29, 2008

DIUMENGE DE CANVI; TORNEN LES TEMPESTES

Aquest proper diumenge, meteorològicament parlant, serà el darrer dia d’estiu i donarem pas a la tardor climàtica (setembre, octubre i novembre). Tot sembla indicar, que serà de la millor forma possible, amb ruixats i tempestes. I és que com millor s’ha de donar la benvinguda a l’època de l’any més plujosa en tota la conca mediterrània espanyola que no sigui amb “bon temps”.

El pas d’un front, acompanyat d’una petita bossa d’aire fred en alçada, serà l’origen del canvi de temps per diumenge. Avui, ja s’han donat fortes tempestes per la zona nord-oest d’Espanya, amb algun aiguat localitzat i fortes descàrregues elèctriques. Aquesta zona d’inestabilitat que afecta aquesta zona de la Península, s’ha d’anar desplaçant cap a l’est, estenent-se les tempestes en tota la meitat nord.

Aquest front, es troba alimentat per humitats elevades (entre el 60 i el 80% d’humitat relativa) en totes les capes de la troposfera. Aquesta humitat, ajudarà a la convecció diürna, on els vents càlids ascendent originats per l’escalfor de la superfície es toparan, ajudats per l’orografia, amb l’humitat i, a la vegada, per una bossa freda entorn els -15ºC. A la vegada, a la meitat est de Catalunya, s’està gestant una àrea d’inestabilitat amb una CAPE de més de 2000 J/ kg i un Lifted de fins a -7. La formació de fenòmens tornàdics al mar podrien ser noticia, tot i que seran difícils d’apreciar degut a que la màxima possibilitat de la formació d’aquests fenòmens seria de cara a la nit. A més, es preveu vent d’origen marítim (SE) en superfície que ajudaria a l’aportació d’humitat durant la convecció diürna anteriorment mencionada.

Model GFS. Podem apreciar, com el CAPE és molt elevat i l'índex LI extremadament negatiu.


Model GFS. La bossa freda de -16ºC, un cop creuat Catalunya, s'ubicarà davant la costa catalana, justament, quan hi haurà el màxim d'inestabilitat.

Així doncs, per diumenge, s’espera un dia variables, amb creixement de nuvolades que originarien una tarda de ruixats i tempestes, algunes d’elles podrien ser fortes i intenses, acompanyades de calamarsa i fort aparell elèctric, no es descarta algun fenomen sever.


Ja demà dissabte, s’apreciarà l’arribada d’aquest canvi de temps, amb ruixats al Pirineu i l’arribada de núvols alts i mitjos per ponent.

A Tossa, s’espera que les tempestes arribin a partir del migdia de diumenge, sent més importants de cara a la nit. No obstant, com totes aquestes situacions, s’hauran d’anar seguint molt a prop i veure la seva evolució.

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More on tax cuts (pun intended)

Economist Jason Furman (real economist, not self-proclaimed, he has a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard and served as Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy in the Clinton Administration.) notes that the Congressional Budget Office, the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), and academic researchers have found that tax cuts that are financed by borrowing, hurt the economy over the long run; please see here for more.



So in other words, tax cuts that are financed by just increasing the deficit mean more national borrowing, which lowers net national savings, and thus investment. And as any family knows, the less you save and invest, the poorer you are over the long run. Thus, the serious unbiased studies that have been done show that a dollar in tax cuts ends up costing more than a dollar over the long run, not less, if it's financed by government borrowing.



What if it's financed by cutting government programs? Well, as I wrote in my last post, many of those government programs have extremely high social returns, like alternative energy, infrastructure, education, basic scientific and medical research, etc., and are things that the free market will grossly underprovide (provide at a level far less than that which yields maximum growth and welfare) due to market imperfections that are well established and proven in economics (real, scientific academic economics, not screaming talk show host, propaganda tank economics), like externalities, asymmetric information, impracticalities of patenting, large economies of scale and monopoly issues, the zero marginal cost of information and ideas, the inability to price discriminate well, and many more available in any university introductory and intermediate economics texts.

Tax cuts, on the other hand, it has been found, tend to eventually be spent, by and large, on short term consumption items of little or no productive or investment value. If you cut your spending on productive infrastructure, alternative energy, education, etc. to give big tax cuts to Paris Hilton and friends so they can buy more million dollar Ferraris, and have more nights in $50,000 hotel rooms, you end up far poorer as a nation over the long run, not richer. These things have little or no productive or investment value. They're consumption, not investment. A dollar in tax cuts ends up costing you far more than a dollar over the long run, not less, as the Republican machine would like us to believe.

What if you cut wasteful government spending? Well, that should be cut no matter what, with or without tax cuts, but history has shown that cutting of waste actually decreases -- and greatly -- when we have Republican administrations and these giant tax cuts tilted massively towards the rich. There are several reasons for this. First, Republicans dislike and disrespect government, so they put little or no effort into learning how to run it well. Second, cronyism is ingrained in the party (update: please see here.), and third, there is a culture of corruption, and this is largely necessary if Republicans are to maintain power. With positions that are so harmful to the vast majority of Americans, they need to please rich corporate and individual donors in order to raise the money necessary for large scale advertising and propaganda to mislead and distract.

So the tax cuts end up being financed by government borrowing and cutting of government programs that have high or extremely high returns. You don't get richer by "saving" money by cutting your investment in your education, your mutual fund, and your government bonds, so you can spend it on a five star vacation or a new SUV.

Finally, what about Republican claims that tax cuts will make people work more hours because it increases their pay per hour? First, people today, by and large, work so hard, and spend so little time with their families by historical standards and compared to people in other countries, that it's not at all clear that this is desirable, and it's not even physically possible to work many more hours at this point. In addition, there is a point where production is decreased from more hours, because eventually it really hurts the quality of work. People become tired and burnt out. Competence and creativity are hurt. But aside from any of this, it has been shown in economics that in fact there is little long term relationship between tax rates and work hours. For most of the 20th century real wages per hour went up greatly at the same time that hours worked dropped. There's little long term effect, and what effect there is can easily go in the other direction. Cutting taxes can decrease work hours. A key reason is the long ago established and accepted in economics, income and substitution effects, which you can find in any university microeconomics text.

The idea is this: If you raise someone's wage from $8/hour to $12, they may go from 40 hours/week to 45, because they get $4 more for giving up an hour; that's the substitution effect. But if you raise their wage from $8/hour to $1 million/hour, they will probably work like 40 hours per year! And then spend the rest of the year enjoying all of that money. That's the income effect. When you raise someone's wage per hour, they don't have to work as many hours to live in a way that they consider well. Empirically, it appears that with taxes at about their current level, the income effect becomes greater at about the middle class level, and then we get what's called a backward bend to the labor supply curve. Cornell economist Robert Frank has a nice brief New York Times Economics Scene article explaining all of this, "In the Real World of Work and Wages, Trickle-Down Theories Don’t Hold Up".

Any source

¡¡ Hasta siempre Maldonado !!

Emotiva despedida ayer de José Antonio Maldonado, en el espacio del Tiempo de TVE1. Con él se cierra una magnífica etapa de la meteorología en la televisión, que sin duda ha sabido llevar con gran ilusión y esmero durante nada más y nada menos que 22 años. Desde Meteo Orihuela aquí va un homenaje, a sin duda alguna, un gran divulgador de El Tiempo.

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人氣小說之改編作品──狼的紋章《漫畫》


漫畫名:狼的紋章Wolf Guy(ウルフガイ)
原 作:平井和正
腳 本:田畑由秋
監 督:余湖裕輝
漫畫家:泉谷涉(泉谷あゆみ)
※原文版2007年~‧於2008年7月起由秋田書店授權東立中文化※


這是……愛情漫畫吧?咦咦,怎麼想都覺得這是愛情漫畫啊(大樂),雖然內容的破壞力十足!XD


本來沒有打算要借《狼的紋章》,主因出在漫畫家身上,泉谷涉的封面有像到せがわまさき的畫風線條,之前曾試過他的漫畫,但不知是我的資質太差還是他的表達力有問題,看得我頭暈腦漲,也顧不得錢不好賺便把幾乎沒怎麼動的書給全數歸還,從此之後對此人即存在著苦於上手的印象,會改變主意還是在萌生退意之前見到了原作大名,結果帶回家後越看越不對勁,才發現此人非《柳生忍法帖》之漫畫家!Q口Q

平井和正的作品向來走的都是那種危機四伏、十足冷硬派的標準英雄動作路線之小說,最早是透過海盜版時期、主角際遇悲慘到不能再悲慘的《蛛蜘人》認識平井和正,而還是等接觸到電影後才知道,蛛蜘人是產自美國而非日本,因為被騙的印象太深刻,導致我狠狠的記住了平井和正的大名,不過之後陸續看了寥寥無幾的改編作品後,才又漸漸的對他改觀。

狼這一部系列曲作品為平井和正的生涯代表作(當時為1969年),SF界出身的他與菊池秀行、筒井康隆、夢枕獏算是同一類型小說家,在日本知名度頗高,只是目前台灣正式引進的僅有漫畫改編作品,而且數量不多,所以平井的知名度還遠不如其他人。

那位少年,
有著修長卻不會顯得太瘦的身材。
之所以不會讓人感覺瘦弱,
是因為……他散發出一股帶著野性的氣息。
那是一種年輕野獸特有的氣息。

【By~楔子】

《狼的紋章》主角為不死之生物、狼人犬神明,「自身不幸、然後別人也會不幸」,因為靈媒的一語成讖,對人生感到無比消極卻又痛恨人類再加上自身的災難體質,犬神明不管去到那裡,他的週遭總會引起風暴,而在不斷轉學的情況下,來到了私立博德中學就讀,並成為青鹿負責的班級學生,青鹿雖然覺得此學生會是個問題人物,但她更擔心的是他的安危--因極端危險份子羽黑獠已盯上犬神明--。

其實比起梁慶一的《死靈獵人》,我覺得泉谷涉的改編功力更優異,即不失娛樂性且又兼顧到悲劇英雄色彩的壯烈氣氛,而且有將平井和正那份人性黑暗面與夾縫中求生存的心理給描寫到位,只是,幹嘛不將犬神明年齡設定年長一些(淚)?這樣主角犬神明跟導師青鹿晶子年紀會不會差太多了點。Q口Q

泉谷涉之前,還有位かどたひろし也曾改編過平井和正這部狼小說,為成年後的犬神明大戰邪惡組織,可惜漫畫年代久遠,租書店裡多半沒得借閱吧。而在日本amazon上搜尋書皮才發現,泉谷涉與平井和正跨界合作了好幾部作品,多到泉谷簡直已經可以稱得上是御用畫家了嘛(笑)。說起來,平井和正跟漫畫界的淵源頗深,不僅多部作品授權給漫畫家改編,最重要的,創作《火宵之月》的少女漫畫家、平井摩利還是他女兒呢。

呃呃,即然台灣出版社不想引進平井和正的小說,那也只好看看漫畫《狼的紋章》,過過乾癮了。XD
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都市怪奇傳說──水銀蟲《小說》


小說名:水銀蟲(水銀虫)
小說家:朱川湊人
譯 者:詹慕如
※原文版2006年·於2008年6月授權皇冠中文化※


騙人!劇情那來的如書背描述「隱隱透著純真善良的微光」?!與其說純真善良,不如說出場的主角懷有令事情會導向悲劇收場的惡意能量,至於虛構的水銀蟲,只是一種象徵性事物而已,例如在「斑雪之日」單元裡就有提到──「這種叫『水銀蟲』的昆蟲,會進入人的靈魂裡四處爬行,最後挖出無數個洞孔,靈魂被侵蝕出洞孔的人,到底會變成什麼樣子?」,再看看七篇單元裡被自己靈魂擺佈的人們,一旦有弱點就會被天性給趁虛而入、形移勢改,有時想想,人這種生物還真是軟弱偏執。

《水銀蟲》相當有意思,「看清眾生相」是七則短篇小說的共通點,分別收錄「枝葉之日」、「時雨之日」、「斑雪之日」、「虎落之日」、「薄冰之日」、「微熱之日」、「病貓之日」,單元各名稱乍看之下的第一個念頭,這小說還滿有農民曆上吉凶神煞之五行氣氛耶。

一開始看「枝葉之日」我還有些失望,比起川口魔瞳香漫畫作品《驚異死亡線》的設定,劇情安排十分近似的「枝葉之日」這單元個人看得很沒感覺;
至於「時雨之日」,也是沒有感想可言,估且不論朱川湊人營造出來的恐懼氣氛有多成功,單單就醫學角度來說,下一代基因絕對不會殘成那副鬼德性,反正就是一整個令我無言的單元作品。
「斑雪之日」就很讚,朱川湊人將人心之間空虛困頓疲乏的負面共鳴影響力描寫得絲絲入扣,作者以第一人稱視點來描述家人自殺事件,看似陷入最深的角色是母親,但從劇末張力的寫法才發現,質變的單位不僅僅是個體而已;
「虎落之日」是全書最柔軟的短篇故事,但我實在覺得朱川湊人/祖母似乎那裡搞錯了什麼,送上一帖禪話心藥方──「菩提本無樹,明鏡亦非臺,本來無一物,何處惹塵埃」;
「薄冰之日」題材說來普普,很多恐怖少女漫畫都曾畫過這種「因為欺負同學、所以得到教訓」的相關劇情與類似下場,不過作者文字寫得還是很有感覺,尤其是主角滑頭的人生態度,誰敢捫心自問,然後說自己的品格始終如一、不曾有過惡質一面?
接下來的「微熱之日」也有傳達到不寒而慄的恐怖精神,到底是無差別凌虐令人髮指,還是會因所傷害的物種不同而有所謂的等級之分較讓人驚恐,一時間也說不上來;
「病貓之日」的劇情則有那麼點令人不知所云,朱川湊人該不會是想表達久病床前無孝子、不要高估人性的道理吧?

又尋覓到一位可以追看其他作品的小說家!XD


【書背文案】
七個故事,黑暗戰慄的七天。
人心的恐懼與罪惡彷彿是寄生在人類心裡的水銀蟲,
它們啃噬人心,引誘人一步步走向不可測的結局⋯⋯

備受日本國民天后宮部美幸讚賞!
【直木賞】、【日本恐怖小說大賞】得獎名家最新奇幻恐怖力作!

人心最脆弱的瞬間,
也是邪惡力量開始茁壯的時候⋯⋯

意志消沉的男人,被指稱自己身上背負著看不見的『冤孽』?
孤單的少年,意外闖進了一個豢養著『怪物』的空間?
散播自殺病毒的妙齡少女,其實正病態地享受著死亡的快感?
失去孫子的祖母,費盡心機想要延續祖孫之情,而方法竟然是⋯⋯

憑藉著對人性的細膩洞察,
『直木賞』得獎名家朱川湊人以既溫暖又哀傷的筆調,
勾勒出人心在七情六慾下所呈現出來的幽深黑暗面,
只是,在所有瘋狂與驚駭的背後,
不是源自愛情或親情的基底,就是仍隱隱透著純真善良的微光,
而這些矛盾與衝突,或許也正是人間最真實的眾生相!
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A dollar spent on tax cuts costs more than a dollar over the long run, a lot more.

With regard to Mark Thoma's August 27th post, "The Whole Analysis Sounds Pretty Fishy":

So the the right wing propaganda tank, Tax Foundation, claims that tax cuts recover up to 40% of their costs through so-called dynamic effects, while Bush's own Treasury Department estimated less than 10%.

Even if it actually were 40%, are tax cuts a good idea, especially tax cuts going predominantly to the rich and extremely rich? They're still costing the government 60% that can't go to many extremely high social return projects that the free market won't undertake due to market imperfections that are well established and proven in economics (real, scientific, academic economics, not screaming talk show host, propaganda tank economics), like externalities, asymmetric information, impracticalities of patenting, large economies of scale and monopoly issues, the zero marginal cost of information and ideas, the inability to price discriminate well, and many more available in any university introductory and intermediate economics texts.

Suppose we consider continuing Republican policies and spending another 1 trillion on tax cuts for the rich. Even if 40% were recovered (and in the long run, as opposed to just looking at short run effects, the dynamic effects go in the opposite direction -- a dollar in tax cuts ends up costing a lot more than a dollar in government revenue if that means a dollar, or even 60 cents, less in investment in high return government projects.).

The vast majority of the tax cuts, it has been shown, will eventually be spent on consumption items of little long run investment value -- leaving little to show or to grow. If instead, even just 60% of that 1 trillion were spent by the government on extremely high social return investments like infrastructure, education, basic scientific and medical research, alternative energy, etc., then 10 or 20 years from now that 600 billion could result in many trillions, or even tens of trillions more in national wealth, as opposed to having the whole 1 trillion spent on rapidly depreciating Ferraris and yachts, and ultra luxury vacations and other things for the rich that have little or no productive value.

In the long run, a dollar spent on tax cuts for the rich, instead of badly needed social investment puts us one more step closer to losing our status as the most wealthy and modern nation, and over the long run, like any other decision to increase frivolous consumption at the expense of high return investment, it costs us a lot more than a dollar, not less.
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Thursday, August 28, 2008

God Bless You!--我的媽媽是殺手《小說》


小說名:我的媽媽是殺手(ママの狙撃銃)
小說家:萩原浩
譯 者:王蘊潔
※原文版2006年3月‧雙葉社於2008年8月授權大田中文化※


這本不比前幾部小說來得通暢好讀,如果不是結局處理上有稍加陰鬱與寫出主角的矛盾感,我對它的評價可能會來得更低一些。但即使如此,萩原浩真不是蓋的(伸出大拇指),作家風格的形成往往是一種強而有力的專屬標誌,萩原大叔所寫的書卻根本看不出竟是出自同一人之筆,不知道他個人特質就是如此,或者職場文化的培育太過成功(笑),雖然不清楚是好是壞,但那種同志情誼的親切感倒是大大拉近了我對作家一向會保持的莫名距離感。

「人心的孤獨」是萩原浩作品中少數共同觸及卻隱隱不明的人文關懷議題,《我的媽媽是殺手》低調談到很多日本奇怪的社會現象,美日的關係地位和自卑情結、歸國子女難以適應文化上的差異、媽媽們的社交結構造成感情過度壓抑、校園凌霸事件……等等,或許是塞入太多小型社會話題,以致於分散了小說的力量。不過萩原浩的小說有個特性,往往前面平凡無奇的佈線都是為了強化最後「奮力一搏」的姿態,如同以往,整個力量感在最後才爆發出來,但話又說回來,《我的媽媽是殺手》比起以往五本著作、結構要來得更鬆也是不爭的事實。

另外,多少有被書名給誤導了,「我的媽媽是殺手」聽起來就像是女兒珠紀或兒子秀太所發出的心聲,不過,家人完全不知道也好,畢竟這種老梗到無趣的劇情還是留給他人去玩就好,我比較欣賞這般像是留給讀者一個微幽的想像空間,孤獨感的逐漸強化最後是否會逼得曜子試圖舉槍自盡,明明已經闔上了書卻又不斷的猜測,關於這部份的寫法也頗耐人尋味。

至此,曜子矛盾的心理描繪是成功的,尤其是亡靈糾纏的寫法,非常、非常的有意思,可是反觀在家族情感上的描寫,我卻覺得萩原浩失敗了,包括了曜子與外公、與父親、與丈夫、與婆婆、與女兒。當然,讀者大可當做諷刺喜劇,嘻嘻哈哈笑過便是,但我總覺得依萩原浩的文筆可以處理得更深刻更妥當才對。

儘管嘮嘮叨叨唸了一頓,我還是很期待萩原大叔的下一部新作,快點快點,請大田快快端上啊!XD(敲碗)


【書背文案】
今天晚餐的菜色,比世界和平更重要……
今天家人的幸福,是像我這樣一個普通媽媽最在乎的……

只要客廳的電話鈴響起,曜子的心就跟著一陣緊縮。
隨便洗完衣服,跑到超市的一樓食品賣場,再逛到二樓的DIY專區,
都不知道為什麼買了排氣扇的清潔噴霧……

K到底在哪裡?為什麼他知道電話?這次的任務又是誰?

每天全家的伙食費必須控制在五千圓以內,秀太學遊泳、珠紀上補習班的錢,
如果孝平現在被調職薪水減三分之一,那房子貸款怎麼辦?

好,我答應。多少錢?先付百分之三十三,之後再付尾款。K說。

這麼多年已經習慣亡靈坐在家裡,殺人這個沉重的事實將會糾纏自己一輩子,記憶不會模糊,罪惡感也不會淡薄。還會像百合的球根一樣,隨著年歲的增長越來越大。

需要小菜(手槍暗號)?還是長菜(步槍暗號)?或者配菜(手榴彈刀子暗號)?K問。

但是曜子只想回家做飯燒菜,最後一次,她把槍舉起……
淚水不知道什麼時候流了滿面,一切一定要有個了斷……她想……


【備註】
萩原浩作品集:衣櫃中的千代子、明日的記憶、那一天的選擇、水煮蛋、來自神的一句話、我的媽媽是殺手
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純粹、幾近透明的情感--我的乖乖女《漫畫》


漫畫名:我的乖乖女(マイガール)
漫畫家:佐原ミズ
集 數:兩集未完
※原文版2007年7月~‧新潮社於2008年7月起授權東立中文化※


劇情出奇得平淡和緩,沒有滲雜過度的人工調味劑,就像一點都不特殊的溫開水,卻有著易入喉的溫潤好口感。

剛開始看到封面時還以為此漫為源氏養成計劃,結果翻閱後發現重點在親生父女相認後如何彼此調適與適應的溫馨生活時光上,嘿~一瞬間有想跌跤的衝動!呃,也好,反正我對蘿莉與正太控的興趣向來不大。

劇情是由正宗獲知初戀情人意外身亡而留下一個五歲女兒開始,起頭的故事性只能說尚可,對於陽子的選擇作法無法有任何的感動,反而只有想嘆氣的衝動,做人不要太彆扭,有愛就去追、有夢就去圓,即然有情感的基礎在,身處於國外的陽子大可繼續與正宗培養感情,日後等到正宗大學畢業時再坦白一切事實也可,但她卻是片面切斷兩人聯繫,然後造成兩地相思苦情、最終無法修成正果的遺憾,陽子自己要負大部份的責任。

會推薦主要還是佐原的插畫很細緻優美,東立按照日本、將每個單元扉頁皆以彩稿處理的這部份有讓我驚訝到,除此之外,後續劇情雖然仍舊平平淡淡,單親家庭的氣氛營造面向倒也溫暖感性,沒出什麼差錯,最後還是決定介紹了。嗯,就這樣。
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Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Housing prices can't drop too much. The good far outweighs the bad.

In response to Mark Thoma's post today, Wishful Thinking:
"Are we near the bottom? Is the end near? I wish I could answer yes"
Mark, please think very carefully about this. Do you really wish housing prices would stop falling? Do you really think it would be better to have housing be more expensive? Do you really think the costs of lower housing prices outweigh the benefits? Do you really think it's better to preserve the wealth of a minority of wealthier homeowners and investors, at the expense of the middle class and poor, who are really hurt by high home prices? I know most of the middle class own homes, but they can't benefit from higher home prices unless they move to a smaller or otherwise less desirable home. Their children, on the other hand, can be devastated by high home prices.
Harvard bankruptcy and personal finance expert Elizabeth Warren points to high home prices as the primary (later stage) reason for our epidemic of financial distress, and the primary reason why over the last generation family fixed expenses have gone from 54% of gross income with just one spouse working to 75% for two (from Warren's book, The Two Income Trap, pages 50-53), with the inflexibility of this leading to debt spirals and today's epidemic of financial distress.
As Warren notes in her 2007 testimony before the Senate Finance Committee, "In 2004 the median homeowner was forking over a mortgage payment that was 76% larger [in real inflation adjusted dollars] than a generation earlier." (page 6). So now with home prices dropping, maybe it's down to 50% higher, so we should stop making something as fundamental as housing more affordable? That would be a good thing?
Lowering of housing prices, over the long run, does immensely more good than bad. It's a great thing. They can't go too low. What if they went to 1 cent for the average home? That would be bad? Over the long run that would make almost all families and individuals immensely more financially secure, to have just a trivial mortgage or rent payment. The lower the better for housing prices. The good this does far far outweighs the bad (although I certainly agree with well constructed aid for deserving homeowners at risk of, or in, foreclosure, and for other deserving people in financial distress). For more details, I have a brief paper regarding this.
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Two Lawyers Hired to the BVI Office of Appleby

Appleby Hunter Bailhache, an offshore specialist group with substantial presence in the jurisdictions of the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands and others, in the mid of August announced recruiting additional lawyers staff to the three-partner practice in the British Virgin Islands.

One of the two lawyers which will add to the British Virgin Islands offering are Eliot Simpson, who was an advocate in the Jersey firm Mourant du Feu & Jeune. Now, as he joined as a partner to Appleby office in BVI, he will lead the BVI litigation and insolvency group.

Litigation and insolvency barrister Andrew Willins has become an associate at Appleby after membership in 29 Bedford Row, Nicholas Francis QC's chambers.

Andrew Bolton, the head of litigation and insolvency of Appleby, commented on the new appointments to the BVI office, saying that the skills and experience they bring mean that the company has one of the strongest litigation practices in the BVI.

Appleby Group has approximately 600 lawyers and staff in different jurisdictions and financial centres. The previous appointment to the BVI office of Appleby was in February 2007, when Alex Erskine was appointed as an BVI Office Managing Partner.
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Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Farm visit, USA

Gilmanton, NH: Stopping on a back road near here to buy some corn, Brad kindly gave me tour of the family farm. His is the eight generation on the farm which was established in 1780. Much of the land round here was abandoned later once the topsoil had been used up and the rocks presented problems. But here and there a few farms survive, often occupied by descendants of the original families.

The farm I visited was of a mixed type you rarely see in the UK today. They owned 160 acres with another 160 rented. The three boys were home from college but the wet weather had delayed the harvest. Once they specialised in chickens, some two thousand of them, but they abandoned that in grandad's day. Brad wasn't sure why.

They grow corn for their cattle and to sell in their roadside shop. Sometimes they sell sacks of corn for cook outs. They make and sell hay. In addition to their cattle, they have around 60 sheep, not usually a big item in the US but there is a niche market in local Bosnian American and Greek American communities. They sell for around $100 each. They still have a few chickens.

But their most lucrative line is probably their maple syrup which they sell in their store. But Brad admitted that cash flow was a problem at some times of the year which is where mom's job as a librarian came in handy.

Subsidies did not seem to feature much, but two other local people who were not farmers told me they were applying for federal grants for conservation work on their properties, opening up the woodlands to provide a better environment for the moose. One was planning to hold tented events on her land which counted as a form of agri tourism.

But with no Single Farm Payment, the viability of the farms that operate commercially must remain in doubt - not that one would want it introduced in the US.Any source

Más noticias del Tiempo en el Mundo

"Gustav apunta hacía Cuba"
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Lo puedes ver y opinar en: http://www.fergco.co/
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Sunday, August 24, 2008

NFL Kick Off Show Broadcast Live from World Financial Center

Thursday September 4, 2008 is NFL Kickoff Night. To celebrate the return of Football Season, SouthWestNY Restaurant, located at 225 Liberty St./2 World Financial Center will host the Football Reporters Online (FRO) NFL Kickoff Show from 5:30pm-7pm. The staff of FRO, who have well over 100 years of “Football Experience” between them will be broadcasting a live Internet radio show @ www.Blogtalkradio.com/FootballReporters.

Why deal with the crowds at Columbus Circle for the NFL’s “Kick Off Party”?? If your not going to the Game – come on down to SouthWestNY and take part in our Live Show!

This broadcast will be available for download on iTunes after the show. Go to http://www.southwestny.com/ for the menu and directions

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Más noticias del Tiempo en el Mundo

"Fay deja inundaciones catastróficas"
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Lo puedes ver y opinar en: http://www.fergco.co/
Any source

Following the US elections on your phone

Elections in the US are coming, and the race is heating up. With Joe Biden just announced as the Democratic VP nominee, speculation is increasing about the Republican choice. To help you stay up to date on the latest election updates, we've set up a new one stop shop for your mobile electoral needs. Just go to m.google.com/elections on your mobile phone, and you can find these resources:
  • Mobile Search - Link to search results for Obama and McCain, so you don't have to type in their names on your phone each time you want information.
  • Mobile News - Read the latest! A handy link returns only elections-relevant news.
  • Mobile Reader - Are you subscribed to the Google Power Readers in Politics? If you're already following the reading lists of the presidential candidates or prominent political journalists on Google Reader, you can keep it up while you're on the go. Not yet subscribed? Manage your account and subscriptions on your desktop computer.
  • Mobile YouTube - Both presidential candidates have their own YouTube channels. Watch their latest clips of speeches and press conferences from your phone.
  • Mobile Maps - Are you going to the Democratic National Convention in Denver, or the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis? Make sure you've got Google Maps for mobile on your phone to help you get around town. (And if you're going, stop by and say hello! We'll be at both conventions.)

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Friday, August 22, 2008

Tempestes severes d'Agost

Com vaig anunciar dijous, el pas d’un front fred amb àrees d’inestabilitat marcades, originaria una sèrie de tempestes, que algunes d’elles podien ser severes. Finalment, la situació ha estat espectacular i, en alguns moments, esgarrifosa. En algunes zones del Pirineu gironí s’han superat els 100 litres i puntualment els 200! El desbordament de rieres i rierols i algun aiguat ha estat noticia en algunes zones, especialment zona Garrotxa – Ripollès - Osona - Berguedà.

El festival elèctric ha estat de primera categoria a tot Catalunya. En altres zones d’Espanya, com a Aragó o al nord de la Comunitat Valenciana les tempestes s’han fet sentir de valent.

Mapa de llamps. Podem apreciar el gran nombre de llamps caiguts en terres catalanes.

En alguns punts, aquestes tempestes s’han mostrat molt severes, amb calamarsades, forts vents i, fins i tot, algun cap de fibló (no hi ha constància que hagin tocat terra o mar).

Durant el matí, ja s’han produït alguns ruixats per les comarques gironines, que a partir de migdia s’han generalitzat en tot el Pirineu i Pre-Pirineu oriental, a la vegada que arribaven per les zones de l’Ebre. A partir del vespre ha estat quan les tempestes s’han decidit escombrar el Principat d’oest a est a la vegada que es formava un "tren" convectiu de tempestes fortes en forma de linia de turbonada, possiblement es podria tracar d'un petit Sistema Convectiu.

En l’animació del radar, podem apreciar com les tempestes han entrat per l’oest a la vegada que es formaven nous nuclis convectius arreu de Catalunya i continuaven estàtiques les del Pirineu de Girona.

A Tossa de Mar, han caigut entre 14 i 17 litres (Segons pluviòmetre homologat 15 litres), depenent de la zona i del pluviòmetre. La temperatura ha experimentat una davallada, sobretot la mínima.

Durant els propers dies, el temps es mostrarà inestable, típic de finals d’agost. Les nuvolades seran presents i produiran ruixats i tempestes de tarda que localment serien moderades. Aquests ruixats serien més probables al prelitoral i interior del nord-est. Podrien arribar a Tossa de cara al vespre en forma de ruixats irregulars. En conjunt poca cosa.

No obstant, s’haurà d’anar seguint, ja que alguns models mostren una certa inestabilitat més acusada a partir de diumenge.

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New Gears Geolocation API powers mobile web sites

Imagine if web sites could provide you with customized information based on your current location, even if you don't have GPS. Today we're launching the Gears Geolocation API for mobile and desktop browsers, while two third-party developers are launching the first location-enabled web apps using this API on Windows Mobile.

One of the most popular travel sites in the Europe, lastminute.com, has now location-enabled their new mobile restaurant finder to help you find restaurants near you without requiring you to type in where you are. If you're in the UK, just go to fonefood at m.lastminute.com, click the "Find your location" link on the home page, select the type of restaurant you want, and lastminute.com will automatically work out which neighbourhood and city you are in and find matching restaurants. This is great for both UK residents and the millions of tourists who visit each year.



Rummble is a new social discovery tool where you can recommend places to visit and see personalised recommendations from friends. Just go to m.rummble.com and click on the "Update location with Gears" link on the home page to see the "Rummbles" near you.

These two apps make use of the Gears Geolocation API. The API can determine your location using nearby cell-towers or GPS for your mobile device or your computer's IP address for your laptop. Google provides this service for free to both developers and users.

Gears is available on IE Mobile on mobile and Internet Explorer and Firefox on desktop. To use the location-enabled lastminute.com and Rummble web apps you will need a Windows Mobile device that supports GPS or cell-id lookup (for example the Samsung Blackjack II and HTC Touch Dual, see supported devices FAQ). We are working hard to bring Gears to more mobile platforms, such as Android and others.

Google takes your privacy very seriously. Although Gears and the Geolocation API do not record your location, you should only allow web sites that you trust to access your location. Gears will always tell you when a site wants to access your location for the first time and you can either allow or deny that site permission. Always check the privacy policy of the web site if you are in doubt as to how they may use your location information.

If you are in the UK and have a supported Windows Mobile device visit m.lastminute.com and m.rummble.com today. The first time you use the location feature you will be prompted to download and install Gears.

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Thursday, August 21, 2008

EL CEL S’ENFONSARÀ? NIT DE TEMPESTES.


Aquest estiu està sent relativament sec en molts indrets de Catalunya, i Tossa no es queda el marge. No obstant, a partir de demà, amb el pas d’un front fred bastant actiu, originarà un d’aquells dies típics de finals d’agost, amb ruixats, grans nuvolades i alguna tempesta severa.

El pas d’un front fred que creuarà el nord peninsular d’oest a est entre divendres i dissabte inestabilitzarà l’atmosfera d’una forma ben marcada. El front vindrà acompanyat d’una bossa d’aire fred en alçada de -16ºC i amb humitats superiors al 80% en totes les capes de la troposfera, a més, en la zona est peninsular s’ha format una àrea d’inestabilitat important, amb un CAPE d’uns 1300 J/Kg i i un Lifted entre -3 i -5º. A més, el vent serà de component marítim i l’escalfor acumulada durant el dia abans que arribi el front a la conca mediterrània catalana originarà una realimentació del front a casa nostra i, per tant, la possibilitat de tempestes fortes serà més que considerable.

És a dir, a partir de demà al vespre i fins dissabte a la tarda la possibilitat de tempestes severes (forts vents, pluja intensa i calamarsa o pedra), fins i tot amb algun fenomen tornàdic, és elevat a tot el Principat, especialment prelitoral.

Els ruixats i les tempestes començaren a entrar per la meitat oest de Catalunya, i s’aniran estenent cap a l’est, arribant a la costa de cara al vespre. Tanmateix, durant el dia, especialment la tarda, aniran creixent nuvolades de desenvolupament vertical que donaran lloc a tempestes, que a la vegada s’aniran “unint” amb les provinents de ponent.

A Tossa, serà durant la nit de divendres, la matinada i matí de dissabte quan els ruixats i les tempestes seran més importants, amb possibilitat de ruixats intensos i fort aparell elèctric, com va passar la setmana passada, no es descarta algun fenomen sever. S’haurà d’estar alerta i seguir la situació.
Model Hirlam. Mapa de temperatura a 5500 metres d'alçada (500hPa).
Podem apreciar una llengua d’aire fred (-16ºC) que escombrarà la península. Aquest aire fred, alimentarà els núvols i serà un dels elements principals per tenir tempestes fortes. Cal recordar, que l’aire fred amb condicions d’inestabilitat (humitats altes i àrees inestables) i amb calor en superfície, origina una diferència de temperatura i de potencial atmosfèric molt marcat, aquesta diferència de temperatura, origina corrents ascendents (originat per l’escalfor del sol en la superfície) que en trobar-se amb humitat a les capes més altes es condensa i, juntament, amb l’aire fred, la condensació es fa més ràpida i més forta, donant lloc a grans nuvolades amb fortes tempestes.
Model DWD. Mapa d'humitat prevista a 3000 metres (700hPa). Podem apreciar una humitat gairebé saturada que representa el fort potencial del front.
Model GFS. Mapa de precipitació i pressió per divendres a les 18 hores.
Podem apreciar, com les taques de precipitació cobreixen tot el nord-est peninsular. Tot i que no indica precipitacions abundants, on descarregui les tempestes fortes, es podrien registrar quantitats superiors els 30 litres.
En aquest models d’Energia Convectiva Potencialment Disponible (CAPE), podem veure com arriba de cara a divendres a valors superiors als 1000 J/Kg. És a dir, tindrem una disponibilitat d’energia a l’ambient bastant importants per permetre el desenvolupament de moviments verticals en el seu interior que sumat a les bones condicions d’humitat afavorirà la formació de nuclis convectius importants.
Tanmateix, trobem l’índex LI (Lifted Index) de fins a -5, un valor tan negatiu que es tradueix en fenòmens molts severs i extrems (a partir d’aquest valor es donen els fenòmens tornàdics). Aquest valor LI té en compte la temperatura i humitat a 950 hPa i 500 hPa, i quan els valors són negatius significa que tenim inestabilitat i que les corrents ascendents seran més fortes i permetran el desenvolupament de grans tempestes.

Des de diferents serveis meteorològics s’han activat diferents nivells d’alerta. A més dels coneguts serveis meteorològics territorials, existeixen d’altres que assenyalen els possibles fenòmens violents, és el cas de l’ESTOFEX, un servei de vigilància europeu de fenòmens severs. Podem apreciar, com ens indiquen el nivell 2, és a dir, de fenòmens violents i la formació de possibles tornados.
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HMRC to Sign Tax Information Agreement with the BVI

Financial Secretary Jane Kennedy has released information about the plans of UK HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) for the period ending March 31, 2009. HMRC is going to complete work on new Tax Information Agreements with numerous countries, among which there is the British Virgin Islands, Brazil, Jersey, Guernsey, and the Isle of Man. Double taxation conventions (DTCs) are to be signed with the Netherlands, Ethiopia, Libya and Thailand.

Besides the BVI and other countries, HMRC also intends to progress negotiations with China, US, Spain, Belgium, Luxembourg and Hungary, and start negotiations with Australia, Canada, Israel, and Spain.

The provisions of the convention between the UK and Makedonia, which was signed on November 8, 2006, took effect in the UK on April 1 for corporation tax purposes, and on April 6 for income tax and capital gains tax purposes, while in Macedonia they took effect from January 1.
Article any source

十三篇童話故事裡的奇妙生物學──森林裡的蘑菇為什麼都有圓點?《書刊》


書刊名:森林裡的蘑菇為什麼都有圓點?~十三篇童話故事裡的奇妙生物學~
     (おとぎ話の生物学―森のキノコはなぜ水玉模様なのか?)
作 者:蓮實香佑(蓮実香佑)
譯 者:夏淑怡
※原文版2007年4月‧PHPエディターズ・グループ於2008年8月授權臉譜中文化※


被書皮給拐騙了(懊惱的拍大腿)囧rz!跟我想像中的生物學書籍不太一樣,由於基礎內容大量引用自日本民間傳說故事,故,蓮實香佑在解說中穿插大量的日語語源、日語狀聲詞(擬聲語)、以及見鬼的絕對有「隨便唬嚨讀者一通的童話與成語典故解說」之嫌疑,讓這本知識書不管怎麼看都有很濃厚的地方鄉土色彩風格。


話雖如此,《森林裡的蘑菇為什麼都有圓點》的優點在於親和力高,生物學知識更是淺顯易懂且趣味性十足,是本能夠闔家閱讀的書籍,家中有孩童的父母們倒是可以斟酌購上一本。

因為是作者與女兒小紗的睡前閱讀童話繪本故事時間,因而以十三夜做為目錄章次:

第 一 夜 〔桃太郎〕桃太郎為什麼是從桃子裡生出來的?
第 二 夜 〔龜兔賽跑〕兔子跑輸烏龜是因為沒有豎起耳朵?
第 三 夜 〔浦島太郎〕浦島太郎在龍宮裡都吃些什麼?
第 四 夜 〔白雪公主〕森林裡的蘑菇為什麼都有圓點圖樣?
第 五 夜 〔三隻小豬〕狼是神明還是壞蛋?
第 六 夜 〔切舌雀〕麻雀的家在哪裡?
第 七 夜 〔狐狸與狸的變身比賽〕狐狸為什麼最愛吃油豆腐?
第 八 夜 〔卡嘰卡嘰山〕卡嘰卡嘰山的卡嘰卡嘰鳥究竟是什麼鳥?
第 九 夜 〔螞蟻與蟋蟀〕兩成的螞蟻是怠工的懶惰鬼?
第 十 夜 〔傑克與豆子〕傑克與豆子真的到了天上嗎?
第十一夜 〔為什麼蝦子的腰是彎的?〕世界上最大的生物是什麼?
第十二夜 〔猴蟹之戰〕受傷的樹木會結出比較多果實?
第十三夜 〔竹取物語〕竹子是速成植物,鬱金香是晚熟花朵?

儘管日本地域色彩濃厚,裡面出現的二十來個童話故事我居然全都看過,而且在以往講求因果報應的觀念下,不論那個故事都有即然復仇、就要連本帶利討回來的殘忍下場,怪怪~,童年時還不覺得那裡不對勁(汗)。

【第十一夜 世界上最大的生物是什麼?】相當有意思,以這篇做為介紹就好。

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為什麼蝦子的腰是彎的?

從前,認為自己是世界上最大生物的大蛇,為了見識世界的盡頭,外出旅行。途中牠停在陰涼處休息時,忽然吹來了一陣驚人的狂風,把牠吹走。牠怎麼也沒想到,那個牠以為是乘涼之處的地方,竟然是一隻大老鷹的翅膀下面。

老鷹認為自己才是世界上最大的,為了見識世界的盡頭,外出旅行。可是,牠飛來飛去只看到一片遼闊的汪洋大海。覺得很疲倦的老鷹停在正好突出於海面的一根棒子上面休息。沒多久,牠聽到有聲音說:「是誰停在我的鬍鬚上?」原來老鷹落腳的地方,是一隻很大很大的蝦子的鬍鬚尖端。

蝦子認為自己才是世界第一大,為了見識世界的盡頭,外出旅行。可是,牠怎麼游都游不到世界盡頭。疲憊的蝦子決定在一個大山洞裡打個盹。沒多久,牠聽到有聲音說:「是誰在搔我的癢?」原來蝦子以為是山洞的地方,竟然是一條很大很大的魚的鼻孔。受不了癢的大魚打了一個大噴嚏,把蝦子吹得老遠。據說,被吹飛的蝦子腰部正好重重撞上岩石,從此以後,牠的腰就變彎了。

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世界上最大的生物是什麼?作者蓮實以他專業與實例說明童話故事中的生物體形究竟可以長到多大,首先是蛇,世界第一大蛇為網紋蠎,身長可達十公尺;其次為大老鷹,品種中最大型會飛的鳥為南美禿鷹,翅膀一展開約為三公尺長,因主要受到先天條件限制,為了邀翔天際,鳥類骨頭必需呈中空輕盈狀態,故其鳥類體型無法長得很大;接著的蝦子,世界上最大的甲殼類生物其驅體僅約三十公分,這是因為牠們是以外骨骼的表皮來支撐身體,身體若太大很快就會撐不住,反倒是烏賊和水母沒有骨骼組織的生物,就有可能長得如怪物般巨大無比;而最後出場的魚,就目前所知,魚類中體型最大的為鯨鯊,身長約十四公尺。至於世界上最大的生物,據說,牠巨大到半徑達到三百公尺,重量為十噸,真面目是--蘑菇的同類,名叫「蜜環菌」。

這些童話都是古早所流傳下來,當時的人們對於生物的奇特現象還沒有辦法做出科學上的解釋,而改以很童趣的眼光去描述大自然界的萬物現象,就某一方面來說,這樣的傳承有其文化建構的力量,更何況生活不也因此變得古椎與多彩多姿(笑)?

有些有導正大眾視聽,有些則是作者個人主觀意見而有誤導視聽之嫌,不過看不出惡意,純粹是說書趣味,所以也就……罷了!隨便啦!囧rz


【書背文案】
女巫為什麼會養貓、狐狸為什麼愛吃油豆腐、蝦子的腰為什麼是彎的……,
13篇童話故事的另類思考,在趣味閱讀中發現科學新解!

你有沒有想過,在龍宮裡度過三年的浦島太郎在那裡都吃些什麼?這個故事竟可以用愛因斯坦的相對論來解釋,是真的嗎?

你知道嗎?螞蟻不是工作狂,真正在工作的螞蟻只有八成,剩下的兩成只是假裝很勤奮的樣子,其實都在混水摸魚!

傳說兔子和鹿交換了長耳朵與兔角,後來鹿沒有把角還給兔子,兔子才把眼睛哭紅了。小白兔紅眼睛的祕密究竟是什麼?

蟬常常叫得很大聲,難道牠們自己不覺得煩嗎?昆蟲學家法布爾說蟬是聾子,他是對的嗎?

多數哺乳動物都是色盲,鬥牛場上的牛其實根本看不見面前那塊揮舞的紅布,那麼為什麼猴子懂得分辨紅柿與青柿的不同?

壞後母為什麼讓白雪公主吃毒蘋果,而不是奶油濃湯或天婦羅?原來毒蘋果的真相和人類的味覺有關?!

童話故事裡的科學解答,趣味橫生、驚奇不斷!
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