28/6/2013: Expenditure Components of GDP: Q1 2013

Having looked at the recession/expansion dynamics in Irish economy on foot of Q1 2013 figures (here),  the dynamics in GDP and GNP in Ireland at the aggregate levels (here), and the mythology of the 'exports-led recovery' (here), let's round up the Q1 2013 QNA cover with a look at the expenditure-lined components of the GNP and GDP.

Below we look at the Seasonally-adjusted Current Market Prices data.

Personal Expenditure on Consumption Goods and Services fell 2.21% in Q1 2013 q/q and was up 0.01% y/y. This compares against much more benign drop of -0.07% q/q in Q4 2012 and a 1.15% rise y/y. Since Q1 2011, when the Coalition came to power, Personal Expenditure is down 1.55%. In terms of q/q changes, Q1 2013 marked second consecutive quarter of declines.

Net Government Expenditure on Current Goods and Services declined 0.1% q/q in Q1 2013 and was down 2.56% y/y. This marks moderation in declines recorded in Q4 2012 when q/q decline stood at -1.90% and y/y decline was running at -2.88%. Net Government Expenditure decline was the shallowest contributor to voerall economic contraction recorded in Q1 2013. Compared to Q1 2011, Net Government Expenditure on Current Goods & Services was down 3.98% in Q1 2013. In terms of q/q changes, Q1 2013 marked second consecutive quarter of declines.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation - the most devastated expenditure component of GNP to-date has fallen massive 7.32% in Q1 2013 in q/q terms and was down whooping 18.74% in y/y terms. This shows dramatic acceleration in decline from -2.16% drop in q/q terms in Q4 2012 and the reversal of the y/y rise of +4.31% recorded in Q4 2012. Relative to Q1 2011, Gross Fixed Capital Formation was down 14.25% in Q1 2013. In q/q terms, Q1 2013 marked second consecutive quarter of declines.

Exports excluding factor income shrunk 0.79% in Q4 2012 on q/q basis and there was 4.93% growth in y/y terms. This was then. In Q1 2013 exports of goods and services fell 4.59% q/q and were down 3.13% y/y. Relative to Q1 2011 exports of goods and services net of factor income payments were up 2.22% in Q1 2013, but we also marked two consecutive quarters of contraction here.

Imports of goods and services, net of factor income payments were down 2.12% q/q in Q1 2013 and -3.13% y/y. This marks significant shift 'South' in the series compared to Q4 2012 when imports shrunk 1.05% q/q and were up 4.57% in y/y terms. Imports are running -0.05% down on Q1 2011 and Q1 2013 marks the second consecutive quarter of q/q declines.

GDP at curent prices, seasonally adjusted fell 0.6% q/q in Q4 2012 and there was annual growth of 0.38%. In Q1 2013, GDP fell 2.16% q/q and there was annual decline of 2.09%. This marks third consecutive quarter of decline in GDP and thus officially, return of the recession is dated to Q4 2012. The average rate of recessionary decline in GDP in the current episode is so far -1.06% per quarter. This is shallower than the previous recessionary episode (Q4 2008-Q4 2009) when GDP contractions averaged 2.76% per quarter. Compared to Q1 2011, Q1 2013 GDP at current market prices stood at -1.04%, or put differently, gross domestic product in Ireland in Q1 2013 stood below the levels attained in Q1 2011 when the current Government came to power.

Net factor income from the rest of the world declined in both Q4 and Q1, with decline accelerating in Q1 2013 to 19.21% q/q from 2.92% in Q4 2012. As the result of this, GNP moved up, in the opposite direction of the GDP.

GNP at current market prices grew 0.68% q/q in Q1 2013, down on 1.18% expansion recored in Q4 2012. On y/y basis, GNP grew 4.12% in Q4 2012 and by 4.26% in Q1 2013. Compared to Q1 2011, GNP is now up 2.46%.

Both Final Domestic Demand and Total Domestic Demand posted second consecutive quarter of q/q contraction in Q1 2013.

To summarise, not a single line of expenditure posted an increase in the Q1 2013 in terms of q/q changes once seasonal adjustments are taken into the account. In other words, the sole positive improvement in the numbers - relating to GNP - was driven exclusively by reduced outflow of funds from MNCs.

Worse, not a single line in the determination of the GDP in Ireland was up in q/q terms in any quarter since the end of Q3 2012. We had, put differently, 6 months of across the board contractions in the economy, when we consider expenditure-based definition of GDP.

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28/6/2013: Exports-led recovery: Q1 2013

I covered the headline numbers and trends for the GDP and GNP in previous two posts: here and here. Now, onto some more detailed analysis.

Remember, from the very beginning of the crisis, Irish and Troika leaders have been incessantly talking about the 'exports-led recovery'. Position on this blog concerning this thesis consistently remained that:

1. Exports growth is great, but
2. Exports growth is unlikely to be sufficient to lift the entire economy, and
3. Exports growth projections were unrealistic, while
4. Exports re-orientation toward services, away from goods was less conducive to delivering real growth in the economy.

Q1 2013 data continues to confirm my analysis.

In Q1 2013, based on real valuations (expressed in constant market prices),

• Exports of Goods & Services shrunk 6.47% q/q and fell 4.09% y/y. This compares to +1.19% q/q growth in Q4 2012 and +1.28% expansion y/y. Compared to Q1 2011, when the current coalition took over the reigns in the Leinster House, total exports of goods and services are down 0.88% in real, inflation-adjusted terms. Troika sustainability projections envisioned growth of over 6% over the same period of time.
• Imports of Goods and Services showed pretty much the same dynamics as exports in both Q4 2012 and Q1 2013, but owing to sharper contractions in 2011-2012 these are now down 4.34% compared to Q1 2011.
• Exports of Goods fell in Q1 2013 by 3.83% q/q and 9.37% y/y, while there were declines of 2.68% q/q and 2.33% y/y in Q4 2012.
• Exports of Services were down 8.75% q/q but up 1.27% y/y in Q1 2013, and these were up 4.77% q/q and 4.63% y/y in Q4 2012.

• Trade Balance in Goods and Services fell 4.96% q/q and was down 3.63% y/y in Q1 2013, with Q4 2012 respective changes at -15.91% q/q and +0.98% y/y. Compared to Q1 2011, trade balance is up 15.91%
• Trade Balance in Goods was down 6.63% q/q in Q4 2012 and this deteriorated to -10.73% growth in Q1 2013. Y/y, trade balance in goods contracted 0.05% in Q4 2012 and shrunk 10.59% in Q1 2013. On Q1 2011, trade balance in goods is down 14.04%.
• Trade Balance in Services fell from EUR1,130mln in Q3 2012 to EUR132mln in Q4 2012 before improving to EUR601mln in Q1 2013. In Q1 2012 the balance stood at EUR28 million.

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28/6/2013: Underlying dynamics in Irish GDP & GNP: Q1 2013

Q1 2013 National Accounts do not make for a pleasant reading. The implications from the business cycle perspective are pretty clear - we are in a continued (3rd quarter in a row) recession, which constitutes the fourth 'dip' since the onset of the Great Recession. The post summarising that evidence is linked here.

In this post, let's take a look at the GDP and GNP in constant prices.

On seasonally-adjusted basis (removing seasonal volatility),

• GDP at constant factor cost (national output ex-taxes and subsidies) fell 0.65% q/q in Q1 2013, having contracted 0.12% q/q in previous quarter. On an annual basis, the GDP at factor cost declined 1.32% in Q1 2013, accelerating annual rate of decline relative to Q4 2012 when it fell 1.04%.
• Compared to Q1 2011, when the current Government came to power, GDP at factor cost was 0.72% higher in Q1 2013.
• Taxes rose 1.04% q/q in Q1 2013, after having posted a decline of 0.64% in Q4 2012. On an annual basis, taxes were down 0.79% in Q4 2012, but they rose 2.32% in Q1 2013.
• Compared to Q1 2011, taxes were up 1.16% in Q1 2013.
• To summarise the above, austerity is clearly biting. Taxes are rising at a 60% faster rate than economic activity.
• Subsidies remained relatively constant in Q1 2013 on an annual basis, implying that net taxes rose strongly.
• GDP at constant prices (accounting for taxes net of subsidies - the headline metric usually referenced as GDP) fell 0.58% q/q in Q1 2013, which follows a shallower contraction of 0.18% recorded in Q4 2012. On an annual basis, GDP contracted by 1.03% in Q1 2013, following a 1.02% contraction in Q4 2012.
• Net factor income for the Rest of World (outflows to the rest of the world from factor payments, net of inflows of Irish incomes earned abroad) fell dramatically in Q1 2013, down 16.96% q/q, following a 3.22% decline q/q in Q4 2012. In year-on-year terms, net outflows fell 16.55% in Q4 2012 and by 27.58% in Q1 2013. 
• It is impossible to tell from QNA the core drivers of the net outflows, however, from the balance of payments data we have reinvested earnings in Q1 2013 by the foreign companies in Ireland at EUR4,753 million, up on EUR4,010 million in Q4 2012 and down on EUR6,768 million in Q1 2012. The gap of Repatriations of earnings from Ireland are not provided for Q1 2013.
• On foot of significantly reduced outflow of funds abroad, GNP at constant market prices rose in Q1 2013 rose 2.85% q/q and 5.46% y/y, beating growth of 0.51% q/q and 3.01% y/y recorded in Q4 2012. 
• However, as analysis in the subsequent posts will show, this growth is entirely dependent on reduced outflows of funds abroad. Q/q, net expatriation of funds slowed down by EUR1,204 million, while earnings outflows abroad shrunk by EUR2,015 million.
• Taking the average net factor payments abroad for Q1 2010-2012 in place of Q1 2013 figure, GNP growth controlling for net factor payments changes would have been around -0.01% y/y and -2.48% q/q.

Charts below summarise seasonally unadjusted series:

The chart below clearly shows that even in y/y terms, we are now in a solid, three-quarters long (so far_ recession.

The GDP/GNP gap has, predictably - given the shrinking of net factor payments abroad - declined from 25-26 percent (seasonally-adjusted and unadjusted) in Q1 2012 to 17.3-17.5 percent in Q1 2013:

It is worth noting in the chart above a significant increase in volatility in the gap, which is reflective of the greater volatility in Ireland's GDP and GNP series as well as destabilisation in growth correlation between GDP and GNP. This new pattern is most pronounced starting with Q1 2008 and is associated with both - the crisis and the underlying re-distribution of growth drivers away from the domestic economy to services exports, especially during the 2010-2011 'recovery'.

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27/6/2013: Quadru-Sextu-ple-dip Recession in Ireland: Q1 2013

All you need to know about today's QNA data release (though it won't deter me from more detailed analysis later) is:

• Ireland is in a quadruple-dip recession (chart below)
• You and I are in a sextuple-dip recession (second chart below)

Incidentally, just in case you felt like previous 'expansion' (officially from Q1 2010 through Q2 2012) was not much of an expansion at all, then you live in the world we inhabit, closely related to the Gross Domestic Demand. If you felt things were just fine then, you might live in Australia, or read too much of the Department of Finance presentations on their web site, or... I have no idea...

As I commented on earlier post by Brian Lucey: That light at the end of the tunnel did turn out to be an incoming train...

Update: Meanwhile, Minister Noonan thinks that the above (3 consecutive quarters of contraction in the economy, official fourth dip in the Great Recession and 6th dip in Total Domestic Demand) is "certainly disappointing but it's one set of statistics" (link). How long till Enda pops up to greet us with Dude's famous return: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsogswrH6ck

Any source