Nick Clegg’s announcement on the referendum on the Alternative Vote for next year and the proposal to equalise constituencies last week produced the predictable response from Labour that is was designed to damage them permanently, but there is another consequence here in Wales (and possibly elsewhere) that doesn’t seem to have crossed many people minds about the effect of the two proposals.
Making constituencies the same size will mean that Labour would have fewer seats in Wales, but under the 50% to get elected rule of AV it would mean that many Welsh constituencies would be permanently held by Labour, with other parties finding it increasingly difficult to get 50% of the votes in most parts of Wales.
And despite Labour’s poor performance of late in recent elections in the Valleys, parts of West Wales and North Wales where the largest number of seats are there is a natural Labour vote (because of history) of 50% or above, meaning second preference votes wouldn’t be need for Labour MP’s to get elected and the opposition parties unlikely to benefit from Labour voters second preferences - I’m surprised that no one in the vipers nest of self interest that is the Welsh Labour Party has worked this out yet.
It’s certainly another own goal for the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives whose intentions were to lesson Labour's stranglehold on Wales and with Plaid Cymru supporting AV as well, the referendum campaign will see Welsh political parties and voters, vote for Welsh politics to become even more stale, predictable and uncompetitive.
According to the Western Mail today it seems that Nick Clegg isn’t for turning on moving the date of the AV referendum next year, so it looks like we’re heading for Super Thursday next May.Any source
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