A betting story for St Patrick's Day and not a horse in sight!
Mike Smithson over at the Political Betting website has some interesting things to say about he latest YouGov ITV Wales Poll around Labour's 48%
He writes 'How 6.9% of the sample was worth 21%?
Last Wednesday YouGov reported that Labour were on 48% for the Welsh Assembly elections on May 5th and were possibly heading for an overall majority
They might well be but ftom the initial detail that the pollster released I was uncomfortable by the heavy weighting uplift that Labour had in the poll and the sizeable down-scale of the Tory vote. Now with the availability today of the full weightings data we can see the reason why.
As is clear the pollster had a serious problem attracting enough red-top readers to participate with the result that those who did had their views scaled up to meet YouGov’s target weightings.
Just look at the movement for Mirror readers. They made up just 6.9% of the overall sample yet in terms of their impact on the poll findings they were “worth” 21%.
The full article is here with tablesAny source
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