The Western Mail’s lead headline that the Welsh economy ‘could already be in recession’ was good for attracting attention no doubt, but as the article showed it was more about people’s opinions from recent business survey results, current trading conditions and previous experiences of downturns, rather than hard GDP or GVA facts but its not a surprise because the figures simply aren't collated regularly for Wales.
A recession is characterised by two consecutive quarters of GVA or GDP of negative growth, but as the Welsh Government only produce GVA figures for the Welsh economy once a year in December before the Christmas holidays for the previous 12 months (December 2011 figures will be for 2010) – how would Welsh Government minister's or business leaders know that Wales was in recession and if you don’t know, how can you plan properly for a downturn if you are relying on incomplete economic data?
And it’s not the case that regular figures can't be produced because Wales is too small or has a regional government, the Scottish and Catalan Government’s both manage to produce far more regular GVA updates on the state of their respective economies than our lot in Cardiff Bay – it’s a situation that its unlikely to change and yet another reason why the business community has little faith in the Welsh Government’s approach to business.
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