Health Care is breaking out to new all-time highs. The S&P 500 Health Care Index is breaking out to new all-time highs above the December 2000 high near 445. Unlike the S&P 500, which is 14%-15% below its all-time high of 1576, Health Care is breaking through the upper end of its 11-to-12-year trading range and has the potential to establish a new secular bull market trend. Health Care joins Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples as the only three sectors to reach new all-time highs in 2012. Prior to that, Health Care broke above the highs from 2007 near 425 – the only other sectors to break above 2007 highs are Discretionary, Staples and Technology.
Taking a look at the S&P Healthcare index (a defensive sector) versus SPX we can see how this sector underperformed (trended down) during the October – April advance in the S&P 500 just as we would expect it to during a market rally. We can also see how it turned upward at the April top in the S&P 500 and broke out from a descending trend channel. It has even been outperforming during the post-June advance! A simple measured move from the breakout implies that outperformance in healthcare still has a big move ahead.
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