DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN GREAT PLAINS FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LOW-AMPLITUDE BELT OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLY/S WILL EXTEND FROM
THE NRN PLAINS TO THE NE STATES DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. ONE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE SRN
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LEADING
IMPULSE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW BRUNSWICK. A WEAK SFC
COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE LATTER FEATURE WILL TRACK FROM LOWER MI
TO NEW ENGLAND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL TRAIL
WWD OVER THE SRN FRINGES OF THE MODERATE WLY/S INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. AS SFC PRESSURE FALLS COMMENCE OVER PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE NWD AS A WEAKENING WARM FRONT
ACROSS PARTS OF NEB. MEANWHILE...A DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL SHARPEN
THIS AFTERNOON INVOF A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND N/S
OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.
...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN GREAT PLAINS FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE S OF THE
WEAKENING WARM FRONT AND E OF THE LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MAINTAINED BY THE INFLUX OF AN EML.
MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
AROUND 1500-3500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS
AMIDST MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS.
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