Jul 11, 2013 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND
   NRN PLAINS...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LATE NIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS TWO WELL-DEFINED AND PROGRESSIVE
   SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER SRN CANADA AND THE NRN U.S. SEPARATED BY A
   LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WRN AND CNTRL
   STATES. THE ERN TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SRN CANADA WILL
   CONTINUE TO SPREAD GENERALLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
   AND MID-ATLANTIC THIS PERIOD WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENING WITHIN
   THE TRAILING BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH TIME. AS SUCH...THE FRONTAL
   ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND LIKELY STALL
   NEAR/ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD.

   SOMEWHAT STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE
   ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE FROM BC AND THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST INLAND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE
   NRN PLAINS BY EARLY FRIDAY. APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE
   DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITHIN LEE/THERMAL TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE NRN
   HIGH PLAINS PRIOR TO WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS SOME
   OF THESE AREAS.

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