DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OKAny source
0752 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013
VALID 131300Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
PECULIAR PATTERN PREVAILS OVER CONUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAINLY
INVOLVING RETROGRADING MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE THAT CURRENTLY LIES
OVER ERN KY. THIS LOW -- CHARACTERIZED BY -13 TO -16 DEG C CORE
TEMPS AT 500-MB LEVEL -- SHOULD MOVE WWD TO SRN MO BY END OF
PERIOD...BRACKETED BY STRONG ANTICYCLONES CENTERED OVER S-CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MID-ATLC REGION. RIDGING WILL CONNECT THOSE HIGHS
ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY. PRIMARY BELT OF SWLY/WLY FLOW WILL EXTEND
FROM PAC NW TROUGHING ACROSS NRN ONT TO LABRADOR. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM ERN
WA TO WRN ORE -- IS FCST TO EJECT NEWD TO SRN SK AND NERN MT BY
00Z...THEN LOSE AMPLITUDE WHILE CROSSING MB THEREAFTER.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW -- CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER NRN WY -- SHOULD
ATTACH TO LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT NOW OVER WRN MT AND SRN SK. COLD
FRONT SHOULD CROSS NRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY...REACHING SRN MB...NRN/WRN
ND...AND NERN WY BY 00Z. MEANWHILE...EXPECT FRONTOLYSIS WITH
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED AND QUASISTATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE
INITIALLY EVIDENT FROM ND/MN BORDER REGION SSWWD TO CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. COLD FRONT THEN SHOULD REACH NWRN MN...NERN/S-CENTRAL
SD...AND NEB BY 12Z.
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