DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OKAny source
1126 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF NERN MT INTO
NWRN ND...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
SRN AB AND SK DURING THE DAY...WITH BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
NERN MT INTO WRN ND. POCKETS OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL
SPREAD NWWD TOWARD THE DEEPENING LOW...AND SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM BY AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. STORMS WILL
BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS SK BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
LIKELY INTO NERN MT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...WITH A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
PROVIDING RAIN AND STORMS.
...NERN MT INTO WRN ND...
DAYTIME HEATING AS WELL AS COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NERN MT AND
INTO WRN ND DURING THE EVENING. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VEERING
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A
FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. RATHER LARGE
SURFACE T/TD SPREADS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS FAR NERN MT AND NWRN ND LATE. THE WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR COULD RESULT IN MERGING OUTFLOWS AS SUPERCELLS BOW WITH
TIME...ENHANCING WIND POTENTIAL.
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