DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OKAny source
0736 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2013
VALID 221300Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LONG-WAVE TROUGH --ANCHORED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN
QUEBEC-- WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS ERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE D1
PERIOD. UPSTREAM FROM THIS TROUGH...A BELT OF ENHANCED WNWLY
MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NRN
PLAINS...BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF AK AND A BROAD
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A COUPLE
WELL-DEFINED SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ARE APPARENT WITHIN THIS
SYNOPTIC-SCALE REGIME...ONE OF WHICH WILL AMPLIFY WHILE MOVING
ACROSS ONTARIO...WHILE THE OTHER TRANSLATES FROM THE MID MS VALLEY
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. ELSEWHERE...A VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER WA
WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH THIS FEATURE PRECEDED BY A
WEAKER IMPULSE OVER WY WHICH WILL PROGRESS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONTARIO
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE OVER ERN
CO/WRN KS WILL SLOW THE SEWD PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE
MID MO VALLEY INTO CNTRL PLAINS. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL TRAIL NWWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE IT WILL REMAIN
QUASI STATIONARY. FARTHER TO THE S...MESOANALYSIS REVEALS A WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENT EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LOW EWD ACROSS
CNTRL KS WHERE IT LINKS WITH A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING
SSEWD INTO NWRN AR AND THEN EWD INTO NWRN TN.
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