So the result are in and the Labour Party has emerged as the ones who get to rearrange the deckchairs on the Titanic in Cardiff Bay for the next 5 years, while Plaid Cymru engage in their latest bout of navel gazing and the Tories will be pleased with the gains and wondering how they could lose a leader at the same time. The Lib Dems are simply breathing a huge sigh of relief that they weren’t wiped out on Thursday.
The results like the election campaign were dull and pretty predictable apart from Tory leader Nick Bourne losing his seat on the Mid & West Wales Regional List, voters doing what the Welsh Tories failed to do back in 2009 and decapitated their leader.
In all honesty Nick was well past his sell by date, he’d be in the job a decade and had been losing support in the wide party and the Assembly group since the 2007 Assembly Election, so now the hunt is on to find his successor and it promises to be interesting.
The candidates most likely to become leader are Andrew RT Davies or Daran Miller, both popular with the grassroots, neither are comfortable with Welsh Devolution and both are more right wing in outlook towards the economy, the NHS and public services – in short the opposite of Nick Bourne.
There are other candidates who could run including Paul Davies who might be seen by Tory high command as too native or Angela Burns who BBC Wales Political Editor Betsan Powys and Laura McAllister said on election night is one of the most underestimated in the Assembly and more than a match for her male colleagues, but stranger things have happened and I wouldn’t rule anything out at this early stage.
Support of their colleagues and grassroots will be important in securing the leadership, but there are other outside forces to consider. Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan, Welsh Conservative MP’s and the UK Conservative Party will all want to influence the direction of the party, they are naturally more right wing in outlook and would want a candidate leading the Assembly group to reflect that – but how much influence can they bring to bear will be interesting to see.
As for what effect a new less devolution friendly leader will have on the Tories electoral prospects in Wales is anyone’s guess, but Labour must already be salivating at the prospect of endlessly pointing out the Welsh Conservatives remain unreconstructed Thatcherties at heart.
One final thing, spare a thought for former AM Jonathan Morgan who would have been a natural replacement for his mentor Nick Bourne, but who also lost his seat to Julie Morgan in Cardiff North proving elections are cruel things indeed.
UPDATE Paul Davies has been named as acting leader of the Tory Assembly Group
As Valleys Mam asked in the comments is this good or bad news for Paul’s full time leadership ambitions – according to Betsan Powys he was the only candidate who put his name forward and from her blog ‘Now for the bit that will make one group member in particular sit up. I'm told that Paul Davies' candidacy for the interim leadership was "the product of progressive forces within the Welsh Conservatives working together".Any source
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