DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OKAny source
0743 AM CDT MON SEP 02 2013
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NORTHEAST STATES...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...WITH SEVERAL SMALLER VORTICES ROTATING
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF NY/NJ INTO NEW ENGLAND WHERE
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ARE PRESENT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THIS MORNING WITH A THREAT OF HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BROKEN
SUNSHINE IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER PARTS OF NY/PA. MODELS DEPICT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS
CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. IT APPEARS AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FORM...POSING THE RISK OF ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF HAIL/WIND
THREAT. AT THIS TIME...LIMITED AREAL/TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.
...OH/TN VALLEYS INTO ARKLATEX...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MS/OH/TN
VALLEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. STEERING FLOW AND
VERTICAL SHEAR ARE WEAK...SUGGESTING STORMS WILL BE RATHER
DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE STRONGER STORMS FROM EAST TX NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
TN/KY.
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