Aug 16, 2013 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1235 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013

   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SOUTHEAST...

   MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AS A
   SECONDARY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
   OVER AR/LA.  NET RESULT WILL BE FOR MOIST SWLY FLOW REGIME TO
   CONTINUE ACROSS THE SERN U.S. WHERE PW VALUES REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF
   2 INCHES.  WHILE POOR LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION
   THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE A FEW ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS COULD EMERGE
   DURING THE DAY WITHIN BROADER CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION FROM THE NERN
   GOM ACROSS NRN FL/SRN GA.  SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS DIURNAL
   HEATING COULD STRENGTHEN STORMS ENOUGH FOR A FEW WET MICRO BURSTS.

   ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   DEEP LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER AND BECOME DUE NLY BY
   EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS
   ESTABLISHED OVER THE MS VALLEY.  WITH SFC RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS
   THE MID MS VALLEY/ERN PLAINS IT APPEARS FAIRLY DEEP ELY BOUNDARY
   LAYER COMPONENT WILL FORCE MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE TOWARD THE EAST
   SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES.  GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED
   TO GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO PORTIONS OF THE SWRN U.S./SRN ROCKIES AND
   WEST TX WHERE INSTABILITY/MOISTURE WILL CONGREGATE.

   ONGOING MCS OVER NRN OK MAY SPREAD/PROPAGATE SSWWD TOWARD NWRN TX BY
   SUNRISE FRIDAY.  WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
   WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IT APPEARS RENEWED CONVECTION WILL
   DEVELOP ALONG EDGE OF CLOUD DEBRIS/OUTFLOW ACROSS THE TX SOUTH
   PLAINS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.  A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS COULD
   GENERATE HAIL OR PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
   PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL STORMS.

   ...INTERIOR OREGON...

   MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. THROUGH THE
   UPCOMING DAY1 PERIOD.  WHILE WEAK HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
   ORE FRIDAY IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   STRONGLY SHEARED HIGH BASED STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  FORECAST MOISTURE APPEARS A BIT TOO
   MARGINAL TO WARRANT ORGANIZED SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION.

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