DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OKAny source
0100 AM CDT SAT AUG 03 2013
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN HIGH PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THREE MAIN ELEMENTS...
1. TROUGHING OVER GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS FCST TO AMPLIFY THROUGH
PERIOD AS SERIES OF MOSTLY LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE LARGE
BELT OF ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS
OH VALLEY TO MID-ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND.
2. ANTICYCLONE STRENGTHENING AROUND ITS CENTER OVER W-CENTRAL
TX...WITH RIDGING NNWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS.
3. WEAKENING SYNOPTIC TROUGH FROM SWRN CANADA SWWD ACROSS PAC NW AND
ADJACENT PAC WATERS. PRONOUNCED CYCLONE...CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AS WSW-ENE ELONGATED CIRCULATION OVER
ORE/ID/MT...IS FCST TO WEAKEN THROUGH PERIOD. PRIMARY/EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAX SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS WRN/NRN MT...ALSO WHILE SLOWLY
WEAKENING.
AT SFC...QUASISTATIONARY/REMNANT/FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
FROM DELMARVA REGION SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS GA/AL/MS. TIDEWATER-AREA
AND NC PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE OVERTAKEN FROM N-S BY COLD
FRONT DURING OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME. AT 4/00Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NJ WWD ACROSS SRN OH THEN WSWWD OVER OZARKS.
WRN/TRAILING SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL REINFORCE PRE-EXISTING/WEAK
BOUNDARY FROM OZARKS WWD ACROSS CO/NM BORDER REGION BY
4/00Z...LIKELY REINFORCED AND EFFECTIVELY SHUNTED SWD ON MESOSCALE
BY OUTFLOW FROM ANTECEDENT CONVECTION. SFC TROUGH SHOULD MOVE
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS REGION FROM NRN CO TO
S-CENTRAL MT.
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