The monthly YouGov poll for next year's Assembly Elections has been published for October and there is good news for Labour, more bad news for the Lib Dems and the possibility of UKIP getting its first Assembly Member.
The figures are
Labour 44% no change on September
Plaid Cymru on 21% (up 2%)
Conservatives 19% (down 3%)
Lib Dems 9% (down 1%)
Others 8% with a strong showing for UKIP in North Wales.
Labour must feel a majority next May is a growing certainly for the Party while the Lib Dems must be hoping that Welsh voters won’t blame them for the cuts and job losses and that their support holds up next May.
Plaid Cymru will be pleased that they are back above 20% and back into second place, but they remain 23% behind Labour is proof they have been outmanoeuvred since May’s Elections.
The Conservatives maybe slightly concerned at a 3% drop in month, but will be more worried at the growing strength of UKIP and the threat that could pose to their numbers in the Assembly elections because a large proportion of Welsh Tories member remain opposed to devolution.
On voting intention for the more powers referendum on 3rd March 2011 there is good news for the Yes camp with 52% supporting a YES votes up from 49% in September and the NO Camp falling 1% to 29% since last month’s poll. That’s a healthy 23% lead despite the lack of a formal YES or No Campaigns.
More analysis HERE from Welsh Poll WatchAny source
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