Sunday, May 30, 2010

Bury Your Money Like Kimchi!

We've touched on South Korea here already recently, but I wanted to come back after some reading I happened upon. Here on the downside of that bull market peak in the beginning of this year, it appears that market recovery may not be as quick as once predicted. This is not unusual, as the recoveries from 1929 and 1980 sputtered and fell several times before more stable growth trends took hold. The Star Tribune from this morning, from a Wall Street Journal article that I have since been unable to locate, theorized that the real value of the market may be as low as 50% of where we are hovering now. We could continue to see short bull markets, but I'm thinking that an overall downward trend may continue for sometime now.

That being said, the New York Times postulates that the uncertainty in the Korean peninsula is not particularly so. Kim Jong Il is an unwell man, but the Korean memory is a long one, and avoiding military conflict is likely to be the ultimate goal here. Kim is the crack baby misbehaving for attention.

So, between the Event Risk and uncertainty of the professionals in the face of it, and the (potentially totally wrong) prediction that the market will continue to roll downward, and the overall terrific environment South Korea has been and will continue to be as its vast rural population enters the modern world, I think we should be on the lookout of Korean opportunity.

Is this a fair follow-up to BQ's first post on Korea?
Any source

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